Week 3 includes what appears to be a mismatch between a perennial loser from the Mid-American Conference going up against a bona fide Big Ten Conference and College Football Playoff contender. After a scary opening game, the Penn State Nittany Lions flexed their muscles in an impressive prime time national TV payout over Pitt last week. The Kent State Golden Flashes are coming off a win over 1AA Howard that followed a heartbreaking loss at Illinois. For Penn State their near-death experience against Appalachian State in week one may have scared them straight. For Kent State they are fighting to show progress after five bad seasons under Paul Haynes. Penn State hosts Kent State Saturday.
Watch this Week 3 matchup live on Saturday, September 15, 2018, at noon ET from Beaver Stadium. The game can be seen on FS1.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kent State +36
Penn State -36
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Odds Analysis
Its no surprise at all that Penn State is the prohibitive home chalk. The Nittany Lions are a well-established marquee brand and blue blood college football program. Kent State is a blip in the conversation and even sharps are aware of their struggles to compete. Indeed since 2013 the Golden Flashes have gone 4-8, 2-9, 3-9, 3-9, and 2-10.
Recent Form
Penn State won their home opener in dramatic fashion 45-38 in overtime against Appalachian State as they never had a shot at covering the 24-point number. The Nittany Lions tied the game at the 42 second mark to send it into overtime. But last week the Nits blasted Pitt 51-6 as 7.5-point road chalks. Penn State had advantages of 23-15 in first downs and 390-300 for total yards. Both of the Lions opening games went over the total.
Kent State is 1-1 straight up and 2-0 against the spread. In week one the Golden Flashes jumped out to a 17-3 lead at Illinois but simply couldn’t last in a 31-24 loss to the Fighting Illini. Last week Kent State destroyed Howard 54-14. The worth of that win is difficult to assess considering Howard is 1AA.
Kent State Key Trends
Kent State has lost five of their last nine games against the number on the road with five of their last seven away games going under the total. The Golden Flashes have held surprisingly good betting value as double-digit road dogs with four payouts in their last six away games getting 10 or more points. Five of their last seven in that role went under the total.
Penn State Key Trends
Penn State has lost their last three games against the spread laying double digits at home with four of their last seven in that role going under the total. The Nittany Lions have had rather mixed results at Beaver Stadium overall with just three losses vs. the line in their last 12 home games but all three of those failures coming in their last three matchups on their home field. Three of their last four at Beaver Stadium went over the total.
Head to Head
Penn State has won all four of their home games against Kent State but got the money just twice. Two of the last three between these teams went under the total.
Players to Watch
Penn State Senior quarterback Trace McSorley has stumbled out of the gate with a subpar 53% completion rate and just 5.7 yards per attempt. Yet McSorely also engineered the game saving drive against Appalachian State to send the game into overtime. Running back Miles Sanders is averaging six yards per attempt with two touchdowns.
Free ATS Pick
Penn State had the look of a team that learned its lesson in week one. Its doubtful they will be as careless any more after the near catastrophe against App State. Look for a rout in this one against a weak Kent State team.
College Football Odds: Penn State 55, Kent State 10
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