No, this isn’t a misprint. The Miami Hurricanes, not the Miami RedHawks, will be heading north to take on the Toledo Rockets in Week 3 of the college football season. This is a tricky game for the Hurricanes. Toledo is one of the best Group of Five teams in the nation, and the program has consistently been a regional power in the MAC for almost all of this decade. If Miami isn’t careful, they could lose this one and fall to 1-2 on the year.
This matchup in Week 3 will take place on Saturday, September 15, 2018 at 12 p.m. ET at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami (FL) -10
Toledo +10
Total 57.5
Odds Analysis
Initially, the Hurricanes were an 11-point favorite per the CFB betting odds in this one, but the line has since come down. Miami is now -10 on the NCAAF betting line, and the line might come down even more when its closer to kickoff.
The total has moved down slightly too. On Monday, the total was released with a number of 58.5, and it has since dropped to 57.5 per the NCAAF betting odds.
Coaching Angle
Toledo is one of the few teams we really don’t know anything about at this point of the season. The Rockets pasted VMI 66-3 in their opener, but VMI is an FCS team that hasn’t finished a season above .500 since 1981. The Keydets have only won four games in a season once since 2004, and that tells you something about the strength of that victory.
The reason this line is so low is because Jason Candle is seen as one of the best young coaches in college football. Candle replaced Matt Campbell when the latter left for Iowa State, and the Rockets have not missed a beat with their new coach. He led this team to a 9-4 mark in 2016 and an 11-3 mark in 2017, and the Rockets were favored to win the MAC at the start of the year even without quarterback Logan Woodside.
Candle’s Rockets put up 30 points on a good Miami team last year, and they played much better than the 52-30 final indicated. They were leading the Hurricanes going into halftime, and Toledo trailed by one score midway through the fourth quarter.
Player to Watch
A lot of Miami’s fan base has turned on quarterback Malik Rosier. Rosier led the Hurricanes to 10 straight wins to start the 2017 season, but his play has been dreadful in his last four games against FBS opponents.
Rosier has not completed over 50 percent of his passes in any of those games. He is 55-124 for 759 yards with four touchdowns and seven interceptions during that stretch, and he has not been a threatening as a runner either.
He is the only quarterback with real experience on this roster, but it will be interesting to see how long of a leash he has if he struggles in this one.
Free ATS Pick
The Hurricanes are not going to lose this game. Although Miami has had some real troubles lately and don’t look like the team we saw last year, this defense is still very good. The back seven is superb, and the way you beat the Hurricanes is by running the ball with power.
I’m going to put my faith in Rosier against Toledo. He was sharp against the Rockets last year, completing 75 percent of his passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception, and this Toledo defense is somewhat inexperienced.
The under looks to be a good play too. Although Toledo likes to spread it out and throw the ball, the Rockets are likely to have a tougher time scoring with a quarterback making his first real start.
College Football Odds: Miami (FL) 31, Toledo 17
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