The Indiana Hoosiers are a live dog coming into their game with the Michigan State Spartans this week. Indiana is ranked in the top 25 of Bill Connelly S&P+ ratings, and the Hoosiers are halfway towards bowl eligibility already. A win over Michigan State in Week 4 would send them into the AP Top 25 and likely lead to Indiana being 5-0 heading into their game against Ohio State in three weeks. Michigan State will aim to avoid the upset.
Watch this Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State -5
Indiana +5
Total 47.5
Odds Analysis
The oddsmakers gave Indiana a lot of respect when they came up with the opening CFB betting line for this game. Michigan State opened as just a 3.5-point favorite per the CFB betting odds, and a line that low caused action to come in on Sparty.
The under was released on Monday evening, and that saw some action as well. The NCAAF betting odds placed the over/under at 48.5, and it has moved down a point since then.
Matchup to Watch
For the second straight year, Michigan State is really not having success running the football. That has caused the Spartans’ stock to fall pretty fast, since they couldn’t move the ball on the ground against either Utah State or Arizona State in their first two games of the season.
LJ Scott has received a lot of the blame, but the problem runs deeper than that. Yes, Scott is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and lacks breakaway speed, but the offensive line has made it difficult for any kind of ground game to get going.
More was expected out of a unit that returned four of five starters from 2017. However, they have had issues in run blocking and pass blocking and that has limited their effectiveness.
They need to be able to run the ball on Indiana. The Hoosiers defense is allowing 4.6 yards per carry this year, and they have proven they can be run on.
Player to Watch
Freshman Stevie Scott has burst onto the scene. The 6’2, 233-pound bruiser from Syracuse has been a load to bring down, and Indiana has been feeding him the rock to wear defenses down. Scott already has 69 carries for 388 yards with three touchdowns this season, and he was a bull in wins over Virginia and Ball State. He averaged over six yards per carry in each of those games and helped Indiana win the time of possession battle.
Scott will face his toughest test yet against Michigan State this week. The Spartans have one of the best run defenses in the country, and that has helped them out while the offense continues to have problems moving the ball. Michigan State is allowing a scant 1.3 yards per rush and 34.5 yards per game on the ground.
Free ATS Pick
Michigan State is probably one of the few teams that has ever been happy to have a bye in Week 3. The Spartans needed a break after going into the desert to take on Arizona State in triple digit heat. You could tell the players were really having a hard time playing at their best with the temperature on the sidelines so hot, and they will be happy to be playing in the Midwest at night.
The Hoosiers have been a great story through the first few weeks of the season. They have taken care of business against lesser foes in each of their first three games, but they won’t be able to get past Michigan State. The Spartans have had two weeks to get ready for this one, and they won’t be intimidated by this road atmosphere.
College Football Odds: Michigan State 30, Indiana 17
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