Hold that Tiger! The LSU Tigers are riding high after another big win over Auburn last week. LSU erased a fourth quarter deficit in Jordan-Hare Stadium to pull out a 22-21 victory thanks to a last-second field goal from Cole Tracy. Now, the Tigers are ranked in the top ten and trying to keep the momentum going in Week 4 against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. With the stunning loss to Troy last year still fresh in their minds, LSU will not take a good Louisiana Tech team lightly.
Watch this Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 7 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Louisiana Tech +20
LSU -20
Total 50.5
Odds Analysis
There has been some early action on the visitors. LSU opened as a 22-point favorite on the NCAAF betting line, but that has fell two points. Louisiana Tech is coming off of a bye and has been preparing for this game for two weeks, and this will be the game of the season for most of Tech’s players. The motivation and preparation angles have likely helped the line drop.
The total has remained constant at 50.5 since opening on Sunday evening.
Player to Watch
Joe Burrow might have the “it” factor. His numbers aren’t great by any stretch. He hasn’t completed more than 50 percent of his passes in any game through three games, so needless to say the advanced metrics don’t love him.
However, he has a penchant for making the big throws he needs to. Burrow came up big when he needed to in the fourth quarter against Auburn last week, making big throw after big throw.
Burrow has a big arm and all the tools it takes to succeed, and he should only keep getting better with more time in LSU’s system. He only arrived on campus in late May after coming in as a graduate transfer from Ohio State, and that has led offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger to be careful with opening up the playbook. The Tigers will always be a run-first team under Ed Orgeron, but a big game quarterback is something this team has lacked for over a decade.
Matchup to Watch
The Tigers are allowing opponents to pick up just 1.9 yards per carry on the ground so far this season, and when two of those opponents are Miami and Auburn, you know this team has a good run defense.
That is going to force Louisiana Tech to the air in this one, putting the pressure on J’Mar Smith. Smith had a good year in his first full year as a starter in 2017, throwing for almost 3,000 yards. However, he made some uncharacteristic mistakes in the Bulldogs’ season opener against South Alabama, and that nearly cost Louisiana Tech the game.
Smith tossed three picks in that one, and all three of those interceptions came in enemy territory. They killed potential scoring drives and allowed the Jaguars to creep back into the game. He can’t afford costly turnovers against a superior team like LSU.
Free ATS Pick
Some are calling this a letdown, lookahead spot for LSU. Emotions are high after the big win at Auburn, and the game against Louisiana Tech is the last before a conference stretch that sees LSU face Ole Miss, Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks.
However, the specter of last year’s home loss to Troy is still looming, and LSU will want to take care of business early here. I think LSU will let Burrow open up the offense early on, and that will surprise Louisiana Tech. The Tigers will force Louisiana Tech to be one-dimensional on the other side of the ball, and that will lead to a convincing LSU win.
College Football Odds: LSU 34, Louisiana Tech 10
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