Scott Frost certainly didn’t expect his tenure with the Nebraska Cornhuskers to begin like this. Nebraska was thought to have won the offseason by landing the highly sought after coach after leading UCF to a share of the national championship, but his return to Lincoln has gotten off to a rocky start. The Cornhuskers are sitting at 0-2 entering Big Ten play, and there is a good chance they miss out on bowl season yet again. They are staring down the barrel of 0-3 as they travel to face the Michigan Wolverines in Week 4 of the college football season.
This matchup in Week 4 will take place on Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 12 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska +17
Michigan -17
Total 50
Odds Analysis
The spread in this game has vacillated from where it opened. Originally, Michigan was an 18-point favorite per the CFB betting odds when the line came out on Sunday evening. The Wolverines moved up to -19 on Tuesday night, but sharp money has pushed the line back down to 17 as of Wednesday afternoon.
There hasn’t been nearly as much action on the total. The NCAAF betting line for the total was 49.5, and that has only inched up a half-point.
Injury Angle
Adrian Martinez is a game-time decision to play against Michigan per multiple reports. Martinez injured his knee late in Nebraska’s delayed season opener two weeks ago, and he was unable to play last week in the team’s loss to Troy.
There is no doubt that he is the best quarterback to run Frost’s offense even though he is a true freshman. That position was left barren after Mike Riley was dismissed last year, and his dual-threat nature compensates for a weak offensive line. Nebraska was able to move the ball a lot better while he was in the lineup against Colorado as more of the playbook was open to the offense, and that kept the defense guessing.
If Martinez can’t play, Andrew Bunch is going to be the starter once again. Bunch is a decent passer, but he isn’t as good of a runner as Martinez. Troy really didn’t respect the run against Nebraska, and they didn’t need to as he had 11 carries for six yards on the day (including sacks).
It’s a small sample set, but the stats show the difference between Martinez and Bunch. Martinez is averaging more than three yards more per throw, and he has run for more than 100 yards more than Bunch on just four more attempts. There’s a reason Frost selected him as the starter for the season opener, and his presence will significantly impact the CFB betting line.
Player to Watch
Shea Patterson was the talk of the summer as far as quarterback transfers go. The former Ole Miss quarterback decided to take his talents to Ann Arbor, and it was thought that Jim Harbaugh had finally found his quarterback at long last.
After a somewhat tough first start against Notre Dame, Patterson has played well. He has completed more than 70 percent of his passes, and he is averaging more than nine yards an attempt. Those are very good numbers, but they came in easy wins against Western Michigan and SMU. Patterson knows that he will be judged by how he performs in Big Ten play, and not by what he does against Group of Five schools.
Free ATS Pick
This feels like it could be a slaughter if Martinez doesn’t play. Don Brown is one of the nation’s best defensive coordinators, and he knows how to shut down a one-dimensional offense. If Nebraska is forced to go with Bunch, the Wolverines will put the clamps on Frost’s offense and win big.
College Football Odds: Michigan 40, Nebraska 10
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