The Texas Longhorns are looking to turn the corner as a program. The school has largely floundered this decade, but many believe that Tom Herman is the man to lead a renaissance for Texas football. The Longhorns failed to gain much traction in 2017, but there is optimism once again after Texas thrashed USC 37-14 last Saturday. A win in Week 4 over the TCU Horned Frogs would likely send expectations soaring heading into the Red River Showdown in two weeks.
Watch this Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU -3.5
Texas +3.5
Total 47.5
Odds Analysis
There has been some action on TCU since the CFB betting odds for this game came out on Sunday evening. Initially, the Horned Frogs were 2.5-point favorites per the NCAAF betting odds, but early action moved the line up a point to 3.5 points as of Wednesday morning.
Sharps have loved the total even more. The over/under for this game opened at 51 per the CFB betting line, but that has plummeted over the last 36 hours. It has already dropped 3.5 points, and it could fall more before kickoff.
Matchup to Watch
The eyes of Texas are on Sam Ehlinger. It’s not easy to be the Longhorns’ quarterback, and Ehlinger has had his ups and downs over the last two years. He is a dual-threat quarterback and his ability to run is something defenses have to respect, but his passing has been hit or miss. That has kept Texas’ offense from really clicking and becoming an elite unit.
Last season, Ehlinger split the job with Shane Buechele, but this year Herman seems willing to ride Ehlinger despite the growing pains. Ehlinger’s performances have continued to fluctuate from game to game, and Herman has held the course. He threw two interceptions against Maryland in the season opener, and he completed less than 50 percent of his passes against USC, but he has remained a running threat.
TCU’s defense had a hard time stopping Dwayne Haskins last week, and that could bode well for Ehlinger this week. Herman came from Ohio State and runs a very similar offense, so Ehlinger might have a breakout game.
Player to Watch
Shawn Robinson made some plays last week against Ohio State. TCU’s sophomore quarterback made some nice throws and kept the Horned Frogs in the game for a long time, but he also made some mistakes that really hurt.
Robinson was directly responsible for two of Ohio State’s touchdowns. In the first quarter, he was sacked by Nick Bosa in the end zone and fumbled, giving Ohio State a defensive score. In the third quarter with TCU still up, Robinson made a bad decision and tried a shovel pass when the play had already been blown up, leading to another defensive touchdown.
Mistakes like those are typical of a young quarterback, and TCU is hoping that Robinson just needs time to grow. He has a lot of potential though, and even Herman has said that Robinson reminds him of a young Trevone Boykin. Texas struggled to stop a dual-threat quarterback in the opener against Maryland, so Robinson could have a good day.
Free ATS Pick
This is a huge game for Herman and Texas. It’s not fair, but a loss here would lead to many people continuing to groan about the state of Texas football. Herman knows that, and he will use that to motivate his team this week.
I think Texas will end up pulling off the upset here. Their defense was able to limit TCU’s offense last year, and I believe they will have an easier time at home against a younger quarterback. This will be a close one throughout.
College Football Odds: Texas 21, TCU 20
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