There’s a reason that the house always wins. Sportsbooks don’t go belly up overnight because John Q. Public doesn’t know how to cap games. Bettors are largely emotional rather than rational, and they trust the two minutes of highlights they see on SportsCenter more than delving into a box score or a drive chart to find out why a team really won a game.
That’s why one of the most tried and trued ways of winning long-term is by fading the public. Every week from now until the end of the regular season, I will be giving out contrarian plays by going against what the public likes and thinks.
Tulane +14 vs. Memphis
People are high on Memphis even though this team has major red flags. Yes, the Tigers have a high-powered offense that can put up points on most teams, but the defense has not been there. Memphis ranks 72nd in the nation in total defense according to S&P+, and the Tigers are coming off a bad outing last week against South Alabama. The Jaguars racked up 467 total yards and scored five touchdowns on Memphis, and none of the scoring came in garbage time.
Tulane knew that it was going to get its doors blown off by Ohio State last week, but the Green Wave have been competitive in their other three games. They went into overtime with Wake Forest, only lost by seven to a good UAB team, and handled a very good FCS team in Nicholls State. Getting Tulane and two touchdowns at home is a gift.
Washington -16.5 vs. BYU
No one is high on the Huskies at the moment. Washington has not looked great in any of its three games against FBS teams and is just 1-3 ATS. Jake Browning has made a lot more mistakes than he has in the past, and the ground game has not been able to move the chains.
You might think that this is a great time to take BYU getting more than two scores per the NCAAF betting odds, but the Cougars are not a good team. They have the 89th best offense in the country according to S&P+, and they were somewhat fortunate in their big upset win over Wisconsin. BYU jumped five spots in the rankings despite not looking great against FCS McNeese State, and the Cougars could get boatraced in this one.
Coastal Carolina +14 at Troy
Troy’s win over Nebraska looks a lot less impressive than it did last week. The Trojans have not been as good as you might think against FBS competition this year considering their reputation. They were housed by Boise State at home in their opener, and they nearly lost to Louisiana-Monroe last week after allowing almost 500 yards of offense.
Coastal Carolina is ranked just seven spots lower than Troy according to S&P+, and the Chanticleers no longer look like the doormat they were last year. They have won three straight games, boast a potent running attack, and they can throw the ball well off of play action. There’s a reason this spread has already dropped three points on the CFB betting line despite more than 80 percent of the public backing Troy.
Kansas State +7 vs. Texas
When will bettors finally learn their lesson with Texas? The Longhorns have everyone’s hopes up after winning three in a row, but the offense hasn’t been particularly inspiring. Texas is in the bottom half of the country in terms of total offense despite playing some mediocre defenses, and the Longhorns defense has not been great either.
The public is going to jump all over Texas laying a touchdown on the road to Kansas State, but we’ve seen this script before. Bill Snyder has been excellent in these situations over the course of his career, and he will have something in store for this offense. Kansas State is having trouble moving the ball, but Snyder’s teams have always been good at winning the special teams battle. The Wildcats will make this one ugly and have a real shot of pulling off an upset.
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