It’s the 10-year anniversary of one of the “greatest” games in college football history. On September 13, 2008, the Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs met in Starkville in each team’s SEC opener. Neither offense could produce much despite fine weather, and Auburn ended up beating Mississippi State 3-2. More points should be in store when these schools meet this year, as Gus Malzahn and Joe Moorhead are two of the sharpest offensive minds in the game.
This contest in Week 6 will go down Saturday, October 6, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Auburn -3
Mississippi State +3
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Odds Analysis
Mississippi State may have lost its first two conference games, but the sharp money has come in on the Bulldogs nonetheless. The opening NCAAF betting odds had Auburn as a four-point favorite, but the line is now sitting at a flat three as of Monday morning. The total will be released on Monday evening.
Player to Watch
Nick Fitzgerald’s accuracy issues have really hurt Mississippi State over the last couple weeks. Fitzgerald is a great runner, and that has made him a dangerous dual-threat option in the past, but the Bulldogs’ last two opponents have kept him bottled up and that has forced him to beat them with his arm.
In Mississippi State’s first two games with Fitzgerald at the helm, he ran for over 100 yards and the Bulldogs won and covered per the CFB betting odds. Over these past two weeks, he was held to 20 rushing yards by Kentucky and 32 rushing yards by Florida, and the offense has sputtered. Mississippi State scored a total of 13 points in those two games, and that led to the Bulldogs losing both games despite being a favorite on the NCAAF betting line.
The key for Fitzgerald is to complete passes. He has completed 50 percent or less of his passes against all three Power Five opponents Mississippi State has played. Auburn has the No. 1 ranked defense in the country according to S&P+, and they have been solid against the pass and the run. Fitzgerald has to make Auburn respect his arm if Mississippi State are going to get a win here.
Key Stats
Auburn has not had the production you would expect from a Gus Malzahn offense, particularly since the Tigers have a potential first-round draft pick at quarterback in Jarrett Stidham. To be fair to the Tigers, they have played two very good defenses in Washington and LSU, and the advanced metrics still like the unit, but there were some issues in wins over Arkansas and Southern Miss these last two weeks.
The Tigers only mustered 225 total yards of offense against a bad Arkansas defense two weeks ago, relying on their special teams to win. They managed a paltry 2.5 yards per carry, and Stidham couldn’t move the ball well through the air either.
Auburn’s offense didn’t have their best game against Southern Miss this past weekend either. However, that game was delayed by three hours due to lightning, so that performance is somewhat understandable. Stidham did have a better game through the air too, and that alleviated some of the concerns that had been building among the fanbase.
Live Betting Preview
The Tigers have been banged up along the offensive line, and that has led to a lot of the production issues. Auburn can’t seem to find a good center, switching between Kaleb Kim and Nick Brahms, and both offensive tackles are banged up. Prince Tega Wanogho and Jack Driscoll both left last week’s game against Southern Miss with injuries, and both players are questionable this week.
That provides some value in terms of live betting. If Auburn’s two tackles can’t play, or if there is another injury on the offensive line, that is a great point of entry to bet on Mississippi State. Of course, you have to keep an eye on Fitzgerald, but Auburn’s offense could totally stall out with another injury on the line.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State 24, Auburn 20
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