If you took the advice I gave out last week in this spot, your account is a little bit heavier today. No need for thanks or congratulations, although a Venmo or two might be nice. Last week’s picks went 3-1 ATS with Tulane winning outright as a two-touchdown underdog, Washington easily covering the number against BYU, and Kansas State erasing a 19-point deficit to get within the spread against Texas. The lone loss was Coastal Carolina failing to cover the number against Troy.
The public was on the other side of those plays, and they combined to go 1-3. Like I said last week, there’s a reason the house always wins. Here are this weeks fades:
Utah State +2.5 at BYU
If you just watch ESPN or look at the numbers next to the names, you’re probably puzzled as to why BYU is less than a field goal favorite at home per the NCAAF betting odds. After all, BYU upset Wisconsin on the road and was ranked in the AP Top 25 prior to last week’s loss against Washington.
To put it bluntly, the Cougars just aren’t that good. They are ranked 78th in the country per S&P+, and their offense is ranked outside the top 100. Tanner Mangum seems to have regressed and is only completing short passes, while the running game has had a hard time getting going.
Utah State is ranked in the top 40 of S&P+, and the Aggies have been good on both sides of the ball and are great on special teams. They have also had a week to prepare for this rivalry game, so jump on them as an underdog here.
Arkansas +34 vs. Alabama
I know what you’re thinking. Alabama has been a juggernaut this year, and the Crimson Tide have proven they are the best team in the land week in and week out. They have outscored their five opponents by a combined score of 197-20 in the first half this year. Why would I ever consider betting against them with that kind of dominance?
There are two reasons to go against the grain and call the Hogs here. First, Alabama does not have a great record as a favorite of 30 points or more. Nick Saban usually calls off the dogs in the second half, just like he did against Texas A&M and Louisiana-Lafayette in each of the last two weeks, leading to those teams coming from behind to cover.
The second reason is because Alabama lines are inflated. Sportsbooks are nudging the numbers up due to the flood of public money they get on the Tide, and that is creating great value for sharps. This number actually opened at 35.5 before sharp money pushed it down to 34, and smart bettors know laying 34 points on the road is absurd in a conference game.
Arizona State +2.5 at Colorado
We’ve all made the jokes about Herm Edwards coaching college, but you know what? The Sun Devils haven’t been bad this year. Arizona State already knocked off Michigan State as an underdog earlier in the year, and the Sun Devils nearly beat Washington in Seattle two weeks ago. They have played much better than almost everyone believed they would, but they still aren’t getting the credit they deserve.
Colorado is undefeated coming into this game. However, dozens of teams could have gone undefeated in the Buffs’ first four games, as their opponents have a combined record of 1-16 this year. Steven Montez has been impressive, but the team has had its issues in other areas. There’s a reason they aren’t laying the full three points on the NCAAF betting line even though they are at home.
Virginia Tech +5 vs. Notre Dame
This is the trap game of the week. No one is giving Virginia Tech any credit following a bad loss to Old Dominion, while Notre Dame is getting hyped after a big win over Stanford.
We’ve seen this script before. Part of the reason Notre Dame looked good last week was due to Stanford’s defense being gassed. The Cardinal defense had been on the field for 82 plays against Oregon the week before, and they were worn down by the second half. That many plays combined with back-to-back road games is not a recipe for success, and Notre Dame took over in the fourth quarter.
Virginia Tech is playing at home, and the defense looked great against every opponent other than Old Dominion. Bud Foster is one of the sharpest defensive minds in the game, and he will have something special cooked up to stop the Irish.
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