Week seven of college football was the most impactful and among the best and most revealing so far this season. First, there was a lot of separation between pretenders and contenders. Second, gamblers got a great lesson on value, both real and perceived. Not only did the college football playoff eliminate teams that had no business being in the conversation but the conference championship races also took a more substantive form. Beyond that a lot of top teams have become big time overlays that win but don’t pay. Let’s take a look at the winners, losers, and new landscape after week seven!
UGA-ly Loss
The #2 ranked Georgia Bulldogs were fully exposed as a pretender for the national championship in a 36-16 loss at the LSU Tigers in which they were seven-point chalks. Georgia has been sloppy all year on offense and that was fully exposed by the LSU defense on Saturday. Georgia fell to 6-1 but has paid in just three games. Now the Bulldogs face the prospect of facing resurgent Florida in the Cocktail Party in two weeks with the SEC East Division at stake. They also face a potential quarterback controversy between Jake Fromm and Justin Fields.
No Bucks for Ohio State
The #3 Ohio State Buckeyes scored a 30-14 home win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers but were never a threat to cover the 30.5-point line. In fact, Ohio State continues to show sluggish betting value with just three payouts in seven games.
No Gold on the Dome
The #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish almost suffered a catastrophic upset loss but found a way to avert disaster with a 19-14 win over a bad Pitt team as 21-point home chalks. The failure snapped a three-game payout streak. The Golden Domers enter a much-needed bye week but remain in perfect college football playoff position.
Mounties Fail to Climb
The #6 West Virginia Mountaineers figured to be entering a dangerous trap at Iowa State’s Jack Trice Stadium and indeed were ambushed in a 30-14 loss as 4.5-point road chalks. The Mounties 48th in the country ranked defense was fully exposed as Cyclone coach Matt Campbell reminded all why he is among the top up and commers in the game. With the loss Texas and Oklahoma join West Virginia in a wide open Big 12 race.
Quack Attack is Back
The #7 Washington Huskies were fully exposed as overrated pretenders in a 30-27 overtime loss at the #17 Oregon Ducks. This throws the Pac 12 North Division race wide open with Stanford and Washington State joining U-Dub and Oregon. Washington was a highly touted team in the preseason but has failed to live up to the hype. Quarterback Jake Browning hasn’t reached the playoff level of two years ago as the Huskies have lost for the second time and have covered just two out of their seven games. Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal has the Ducks back on track as a national brand.
Penn State Fails to Curtail Spartans Will
The #8 Penn State Nittany Lions suffered their second straight loss at home in which they blew a near certain win in the fourth quarter as the Michigan State Spartans scored a 21-17 win in the final seconds on a 25-yard touchdown pass from Brian Lewerke to Felton Davis III. Penn State never had a chance at covering the 13.5-point spread as doubts mount about head coach James Franklin’s ability as a game manager.
Touted Wisconsin Routed
Perhaps no team in college football was more touted for glory in preseason than the #15 Wisconsin Badgers. But chalk has again proven to be the cyanide of Wisconsin as they were mauled 38-13 by a much deeper and more athletic #12 Michigan Wolverines team that easily covered the 10 point lay. Michigan’s second ranked in the nation defense exposed the overrated Badgers as clearly not ready for prime time. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is finally getting a payoff on his cultural remake of the Maize and Blue.
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