If you followed my Fade the Public Plays last weekend, all I can say is I’m sorry and I feel your pain. I put a big goose egg in the win column with my fades last week. The public laughed and snickered at all of my plays, and even I was left scratching my head after San Jose State and Rutgers were blown away by teams that aren’t as good as those box scores indicate. To make matters worse, I picked three losers in a week where the chalk got killed.
This week I’m looking to make amends with three more plays with the aim of getting back to even on the year. After all, the public can’t keep winning all of these, can they?
Arizona State +2.5 vs. Stanford
Even though more than two-thirds of the bets have come in on Stanford in this game, the CFB betting line has dropped from three points to 2.5 points. That’s because everyone still remembers the Stanford from the start of the year. The defense was superb against San Diego State and USC in two big wins, but the Cardinal defense has collapsed since then. They were gashed by Oregon, Notre Dame, and Utah in their last three games, and the latter opponent is the real cause for concern. The Utes don’t have a great offense, yet they had no trouble moving the ball against Stanford.
Additionally, Bryce Love continues to miss time for Stanford. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite has been held out of two games already, and he did not look like himself in his last two starts. Love did not crack 100 yards in either game, and the offense has looked moribund without its engine.
Arizona State has proven it can move the ball. The Sun Devils have a top-30 offense according to S&P+, and Manny Wilkins has had a really nice year throwing the ball. His 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is sure to keep Herm Edwards smiling, and his arm will lead Arizona State to an outright win in the desert.
North Carolina +10.5 at Syracuse
Three-quarters of wagers have been on the Orange in this one, yet the NCAAF betting odds have dropped a half-point. North Carolina is not a great team, but it’s easy to overlook the Tar Heels considering their 1-4 start. That would be foolish as the Tar Heels are finally at full strength after suspensions of varying lengths led to many starters and key reserves missing some or all of the first month of the season.
North Carolina showed what it could do with a full deck against Virginia Tech last week. The Tar Heels took a lead into the fourth quarter on the favored Hokies before losing by a field goal late. They made some explosive plays against this defense and should be able to do the same against Syracuse.
This is the time of the year where Syracuse starts to swoon. The Orange have collapsed during each of Dino Babers’ last two Octobers in Syracuse, and this year has yet to appear different. They lost in overtime to Pittsburgh the last time out, and the defense is likely not as good as the numbers indicate.
East Carolina +21 vs. Central Florida
The CFB betting odds have already moved pretty dramatically in this game, although the bulk of the action has been on the Knights. East Carolina opened as a 25-point underdog, and people have pounded the Pirates since that point bringing the line down four points.
It seems obvious this is a potential letdown game for UCF. The Knights were a bit fortunate in a comeback win on the road against Memphis in bad conditions last week, and the team is likely to overlook East Carolina somewhat. The Pirates have a respectable defense that can get some stops, and that will be the key in an ECU cover.
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