The Iowa Hawkeyes just won’t go away in the Big Ten race and an upset victory over Penn State in Week 9 sets them up well for the rest of the season. Their only loss was a big one, though, falling to West favorite Wisconsin a few weeks ago. Since then the Hawkeyes have been dominant and their shutout victory over Maryland last Saturday showed off their stingy defense. The Hawkeyes have won their last three games by 17, 26 and 23 points and are spotted 4.5-points on the opening college football Week 9 betting lines at BookMaker.eu.
Watch this Week 9 matchup live on Saturday, October 27, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Beaver Stadium.
Opening College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5
Penn State Nittany Lions -4.5
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Penn State’s season unraveled a few weeks ago with a devastating loss to Ohio State when the Lions surrendered a double-digit fourth-quarter lead at home. Even with a bye after that game, PSU couldn’t get a hold of itself and dropped another tight one to Michigan State two weeks ago, falling by four points again in the confines of Beaver Stadium. Faced with the possibility of a three-game losing streak, the Nittany Lions simplified their game plan, took what Indiana gave them and stopped the skid with a 33-28 road victory last Saturday.
The win was nice but the Lions failed to cover the 14-point spread dropping their second straight against the closing line. PSU is 4-3 ATS this year with two of those losses coming at home where the Lions are 2-2 ATS. And in order to beat the Hawkeyes, Trace McSorley will have to be at his best.
Part of simplifying the offense in the win over the Hoosiers was letting McSorley do what he does best. It would have been nice for the PSU quarterback to sling the ball all over the yard against a defense that allowed 12 scoring passes in the previous two games. But McSorley didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time in his career as a starter. Instead, he used his legs to subdue Indiana.
McSorley accounted for 327 yards of total offense with 220 coming through the air on 19 of 36 passing. The damage was done on the ground, though. McSorley ran for 107 yards and a pair of scores, showing off his dual threat ability with long runs of 29 and 44 yards when chased out of the pocket. He also reached the end zone on a pair of short runs, proving his worth in the red zone. And you can bet he’s going to get moved around by the feisty Iowa defense. McSorley may take a few sacks, but he will also scramble out of trouble and taking a wager on the over for his rushing yard total is going to be a smart play.
Iowa has flown under the radar most of the season despite its lofty 6-1 record. They Hawkeyes aren’t flashy and they don’t win big, they just win. Following their only loss of the season to Wisconsin back in Week 4, they came storming out of the bye with wins over Minnesota, Indiana and Maryland by a combined 113-47 covering the spread in every game. Overall, the Hawkeyes have been one of the best teams to back on the college football betting lines with a 6-1 ATS record.
The Hawkeyes own the top scoring defense in the Big Ten, yes, slightly better than Michigan’s unit at 14.1 points per game. And they are just behind the Wolverines in yards allowed, surrendering just over 258 per game. McSorley will have the ball in his hands a lot and will get his share of yards, but don’t expect much else from PSU. That’s why I like the Nittany Lions to play below their scoring total on the live betting lines at BookMaker.eu.
Iowa at Penn State Live Betting
We’ve seen plenty of special teams gaffes by the Lions this season and they were lucky the miscues didn’t hurt them last week. A mishandled punt or another mistake will be costly against a better Iowa club and that will change everything on the live betting lines. The Hawkeyes are a resourceful group and they play a mean brand of defense. And as we’ve seen over the last three games, the Lions have difficulty holding onto a lead. Should Iowa get behind, stick with them on the adjusted lines because there’s a good chance they make up some ground.
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