XFL Championship Weekend treated us very kindly over at the online sportsbook with the Arlington Renegades pulling the shocker over the Houston Roughnecks as expected and the D.C. Defenders taking care of business against Seattle to take a third straight from the Sea Dragons to put a fork in their season. The 2-0 ATS showing moves us to 5-1 ATS over the last six recommended XFL betting recommendations and 20-21-1 ATS for the season. The XFL Championship Game offers up a rematch of a Week 9 clash that went down in Audi Field where D.C. escaped with the 28-26 overtime win as near 10-point favorites. The combined 54 points smashed the closing 41.5-point O/U with both teams combining for just short of 750 yards and 51 first downs. Both quarterbacks performed exceptionally well while each defense shut both running games down. So is that how the second go-round will play out? The following are my side and total selections for the big game with the hope we cash both and claw over the breakeven point for the 2023 season.
XFL Championship Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
D.C. Defenders -5.5 -113
Arlington Renegades +5.5 -103
Total 46.5
The betting line for the final game of the XFL season hit the board with D.C. installed 6-point favorites and the total lined 46.5. It was immediately bet down to -5 with Arlington getting the early love from the betting market, but has since bumped back up to -5.5 with heavier -113 juice attached to the Defenders side of the impost. While you might be asking yourself why linemakers dramatically altered this game’s betting line from the first meeting, keep in mind this game takes place in a neutral venue at the Alamodome where both the Renegades and Defenders came out victorious in the regular season. The total remains at the 46.5 opener much like the first go-round did when it hit the board 41.5 and stayed there right up till kick-off.
So I took the points with the Renegades in the first showdown at D.C. with the belief that the defense would prove to be one of the toughest assignments for the league’s highest scoring offense. Arlington is no joke on the defensive side of the ball where it ranks out with the No. 2 ranked run defense and fifth ranked pass defense. It was its ability to shut the run down that lead me to believe catching more than a possession – including a 3-point conversion – was simply just too much to give an Arlington team that was fighting tooth and nail with the San Antonio Brahmas for the South Division’s No. 2 seed. The run D would go on to shut RB Abram Smith down limiting him to just 2.7 yards on his 10 overall carries.
Knowing full well that its running game would have issues, D.C. OC Fred Kaiss dialed up 29 overall pass plays and the change in ideology worked with QB Jordan Ta’amu going on to complete 14 of his 20 passes for 188 yards and a pair of touchdown strikes. WR Lucky Jackson proved to be the beneficiary with his only two catches going for touchdown snares. And that’s just the thing about the Defenders. They know how to evolve in real-time with their in-game adjustments arguably the best in the league. If you limit them on the ground, they can rip you through the air. If you play blanket coverage, they’ll rip you to shreds on the ground. Just ask the St. Louis Battlehawks and Seattle Sea Dragons about that! Two teams that I believe are much better than anything the South Division sent to the playoffs this season.
While I get that Arlington only lost by two points in the lone regular season encounter that went to overtime, the Renegades needed to rattle off 17 unanswered fourth quarter points just to push the game to an extra session. Unfortunately, I didn’t get to witness a single snap of that game live but can only imagine a bulk of the Renegades yardage was accrued when in comeback mode during that wild last 15 minutes. I think recently named XFL Coach of the Year Reggie Barlow will have learned his lesson by not going for the kill shot and will let it all hang out in the rematch knowing full well what Bob Stoops’ troops are capable of.
D.C. was the cream of the XFL crop from Week 1 forward. Not only have they won 10 of 11 played games, but they also went a moneymaking 8-3 against the closing XFL odds. They were also a boon to total bettors’ bankrolls with the over cashing in at a 10-1 clip. I won’t stray from the trend and suggest you don’t either. Playing on the fast track of the Alamodome will only showcase the squad’s elite speed and make it darn near close to impossible for the Renegades to keep up. While I respect the job Arlington did to get here and fattened up the bankroll because of it, the Defenders have simply played in a different stratosphere than every other team since its season-opening win against Seattle. They simply bring too much offense and havoc defensively for Luis Perez and the Renegades to make another game of it with the XFL Championship on the line.
DEFENDERS 38 RENEGADES 16
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