Often described as one of the best stops on the European Tour, the gang heads to Vilamoura for this week’s Portugal Masters in what is the final regular event of the 2018-19 season. With the WGC in China followed by the trio of closing Rolex Series tournaments, this week is the last chance for some players to gain ground in the Race to Dubai standings. Portugal has become a popular destination for British golfers due to the nice weather conditions and Englishman Matt Wallace is the betting favorite at offshore sportsbooks. Fellow countryman Tom Lewis is back to defend his title, though recent form has been a struggle. Odds suggest a wide-open field with big name Euro circuit players jumping to the PGA Tour’s stop in Japan this week or simply taking it off to prepare for the end-of-season gauntlet. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds and to place your wager.
Odds to Win Portugal Masters at BookMaker.eu
Matt Wallace +1000
Martin Kaymer +1800
Eddie Pepperell +1800
Lucas Bjerregaard +2000
Adri Arnaus +2000
Tom Lewis +2200
Jordan Smith +2500
Mikko Korhonen +2500
Joachim B. Hansen +2800
Andy Sullivan +2800
Sam Horsfield +2800
Ross Fisher +3000
George Coetzee +3000
Joakim Lagergren +3000
Lee Westwood +3000
Ryan Fox +3300
Matthew Southgate +3500
Chris Paisley +3500
Jamie Donaldson +4500
Shubhankar Sharma +5000
Callum Shinkwin +5000
Alexander Levy +5500
Jeff Winther +6000
Guido Migliozzi +6000
Dean Burmester +6000
Nino Bertasio +6000
Padraig Harrington +6600
Jeunghun Wang +6600
Hugo Leon +6600
Ashley Chesters +6600
Alexander Bjork +6600
Rikard Karlberg +6600
Soren Kjeldsen +7500
Stephen Gallacher +8000
Pablo Larrazabal +8000
David Horsey +8000
Kalle Samooja +8000
Lee Slattery +9000
Nacho Elvira +9000
Robert Rock +9000
Odds Analysis
Eddie Pepperell +1800
Tournaments like this with a wide-open field typically have me looking further down the odds board. But when the favorites at the top of the list offer a nice payout why bother? So here I am. I avoided going with the overall favorite, though I did seriously consider Wallace. Instead I dove into Pepperell’s stats and found what I liked. He hasn’t been at the top of his game recently, but Eddie excels at this venue and he’s done it the last two years finishing third in 2017 and runner-up last year. Going by those numbers he’s in line for No. 1 this time around.
Martin Kaymer +1800
I backed Kaymer last week based on course form and he nearly made my week by finishing T5 at the Open de France. He’s enjoyed good times in Portugal in the past so why not dip my toes into the same pool? He is 5 for 6 here with a couple of top-10s and a T13, but it’s been four years since his last start. I’m banking on last week’s showing having a carryover effect and like the former world No. 1 to secure a spot in the final three events in the Race to Dubai.
Mikko Korhonen +2500
Another course fit on a run of solid form should be in contention this week. Korhonen is locked into a spot in the Race to Dubai after extending his cut streak to nine with a T25 at the Italian Open last time out. He also grabbed a top-20 in the Spanish Open and a weaker field should allow for a higher finish. The Finn is 4 for 4 at Dom Pedro with three top-12s, one of which doubled as a third and another at nine. Putting has been strong and as you know you putt for dough.
Sam Horsfield +2800
Horsfield’s course form is awful, but he’s playing at a high level coming in which is why I’m taking a chance on him. He’s made his last nine cuts with four top-15s among that stretch. And the strong play continued last week with a T14 at Le Golf National. He was second overall putting in France, which is why I’ll overlook his 59-MC in two Portugal visits.
Lee Westwood +3000
A career revival has the Euro Tour veteran in a good place this week. Westwood appeared to be on a downturn until he won the Nedbank Challenge last year. He also finished fourth at The Open in July and has fond memories of Portugal. His last visit produced a victory, though it’s been a decade. And admittedly he’s using this event to prepare for his title defense at the Nedbank Challenge. He better start playing since he missed four of six cuts coming in.
Course: Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course – 7,191-yards, par-71
The Victoria Course at Dom Pedro has hosted since 2007 and we’ve seen some incredibly low scores with the past four winners coming in at -20 or better. In 2016 Padraig Harrington was a ridiculous 25-under and who can forget the 59 bagged by Tom Lewis in last year’s winning effort. To combat the low scores the course underwent major changes as part of a wider “development strategy.” Thicker grass on the rough and surrounding greens along with the addition of tress across a number of holes designed to eliminate big hitters from cutting corners. Even with the changes the track should yield a fair amount of birdies. It’s not a long course and wide fairways offer plenty of relief. Water is the biggest obstacle on nearly half the holes, but it hasn’t prevented players from going after it. And of course the weather will allow the field to enjoy the week.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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