It’s getting down to the wire on the European Tour with this week’s Portugal Masters the last regular event of the season. That means there are Race to Dubai standings points up for grabs when the full field meets at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course in Vilamoura. Portugal is a popular landing spot on the Tour and for some reason British golfers have thrived at this event. Tom Lewis is back to defend his title and fellow Englishman Matt Wallace is the betting favorite at offshore sportsbooks. Some big names are absent and odds suggest a wide-open field, which allows for numerous prospects in matchup wagers. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of matchup betting odds and to place your wager.
Portugal Masters Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Adrian Otaegui -105 vs. Bradley Dredge -125
Rikard Karlberg +100 vs. Guido Migliozzi -120
Padraig Harrington -105 vs. Alexander Levy -115
Alejandro Canizares -135 vs. Matthieu Pavon +105
Brandon Stone -110 vs. Haydn Porteous -110
Chris Paisley -110 vs. Ryan Fox -110
Niklas Lemke -125 vs. Oliver Fisher -105
Nacho Elvira -105 vs. Hugo Leon -115
Ross Fisher -130 vs. Jamie Donaldson +110
Chris Wood +105 vs. Justin Walters -135
Stephen Gallacher -110 vs. Sihwan Kim -120
Maximilian Kieffer -135 vs. Paul Dunne +105
Matthew Southgate +100 vs. Joakim Lagergren -120
Soren Kjeldsen -110 vs. Tapio Pulkkanen -110
Alexander Bjork -135 vs. Lee Slattery +115
Gavin Moynihan -110 vs. Gonzalo Fdez-Castano -120
Lucas Bjerregaard -105 vs. Tom Lewis -115
Andy Sullivan +100 vs. Lee Westwood -120
Matt Wallace -175 vs. Eddie Pepperell +155
Matt Wallace -165 vs. Martin Kaymer +145
Tom Lewis -115 vs. Adri Arnaus -105
Eduardo De La Riva -120 vs. John Catlin -110
Jeunghun Wang +120 vs. Jeff Winther -140
Joachim B Hansen +105 vs. Sam Horsfield -125
Callum Shinkwin -105 vs. Shubhankar Sharma -115
Ricardo Gouveia -110 vs. Robert Rock -120
David Horsey +110 vs. Kalle Samooja -130
Pablo Larrazabal -105 vs. Ashley Chesters -115
Romain Wattel -105 vs. Steven Brown -125
Nino Bertasio +100 vs. Dean Burmester -120
Kristoffer Reitan -110 vs. Thomas Aiken -120
Jordan Smith -125 vs. George Coetzee +105
Mikko Korhonen -110 vs. George Coetzee -110
Jordan Smith -125 vs. Mikko Korhonen +105
Lucas Bjerregaard -110 vs. Adri Arnaus -110
Martin Kaymer -120 vs. Eddie Pepperell +100
Need to Know
The biggest thing you need to know about the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is that is won’t play like it did last year, or the year before that, or even the year before that. The layout underwent a massive overhaul since it played so easily. The previous four winners all finished at 20-under or better. And this was the site of the Tour’s lowest recorded round when Oli Fisher carded a 59 last year. So, to make it more challenging thicker Bermuda grass was added for the rough and around the greens, and a number of strategically placed trees will alter how several holes are played. It isn’t a particularly long course, but it should pose more of a challenge. Now, it’s on to the important stuff. I split my matchup picks last week with one a push when Matthew Southgate withdrew. I’m still in the red and will look to improve those numbers this week. Here we go!
Odds Analysis
Chris Paisley -110 vs. Ryan Fox
I wouldn’t throw down on Paisley to win the tournament outright, but his recent play caught my eye and I like him in this matchup. He’s trending in the right direction and he’s had success in Portugal, which as we saw last week, course form is a big edge. It doesn’t always work that way, but this field offers up some potential winners if you peel away the layers. A T40 in Italy was a good start after several MC’s, and Paisley followed that with an impressive T8 in France in treacherous conditions. He went T12-T5-T37 in his last three starts here.
Mikko Korhonen +105 vs. Jordan Smith
I have a lot of faith in the Finn this week and we’ll see if Korhonen can pay off. He’s a good course fit going 4 for 4 with a T3, T9 and T12 included. He’s also on a heater with a current cut streak of nine after a T25 at the Italian Open. He also has a top-20 from Spain, so the confidence level is high. Korhonen’s putting has been better than Smith’s over the last few events and that’s why I’m backing him.
Nino Bertasio +100 vs. Dean Burmester
Another player I’ll shy away from on the individual leaderboard, but a guy I like in this matchup is Bertasio. A T12 here two years ago is his best finish and he has played the weekend all three times. Recent form has shown he is on the upswing, so he is entering with confidence on a track he knows well. This would be considered an upset, but it’s one I’m counting on.
Martin Kaymer +145 vs. Matt Wallace
What is sports wagering if you can’t put down on a longshot and win every once in a while. I went back and forth on this one, but in the end it was the odds that swayed me. Recent form steered me away from Kaymer in a matchup last week and it took a herculean effort from Kurt Kitayama to get me a win. It looks as though form issues have been resolved with Kaymer grabbing a top-5 last week and he’s had good times in Portugal with two top-10s and a T13 in his last five visits. Wallace is the favorite, but issues with the flat stick give me second thoughts.
Lee Westwood -120 vs. Andy Sullivan +100
Sometimes you have to ignore recent form when there are extenuating circumstances. It’s been a decade since Westwood last played here, but he has fond memories since that last visit produced a victory. The veteran revived his career with a win at the Nedbank Challenge last year and he’s using this event to gear up for a title defense in South Africa, so look for him to be dialed in.
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