If Sergio Garcia had any kind of game recently he’d be a lock in most matchups. That hasn’t been the case for the three-time winner of the Andalucia Masters and the field is wide open when the European Tour takes to the Real Club Valderrama this week. Jon Rahm is the betting favorite at online sportsbooks, but his history here is short and not very good. That sets up some intriguing matchup possibilities where money can be made. Below is a list of the matchups and odds.
Andalucia Masters Matchups Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jon Rahm -166 vs. Sergio Garcia +132
Mike Lorenzo Vera +105 vs. Julian Suri -135
Jorge Campillo +100 vs. Adrian Otaegui -130
Thomas Detry -146 vs. Marcus Kinhult +116
Andrew Johnston +125 vs. Matthias Schwab -157
Aaron Rai +122 vs. Andrea Pavan -153
Ashley Chesters -117 vs. David Lipsky -113
Mikko Korhonen -153 vs. Paul Waring +122
Richie Ramsay -119 vs. Ross Fisher -111
Andy Sullivan -102 vs. Victor Dubuisson -128
Oliver Wilson -113 vs. Pablo Larrazabal -117
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -133 vs. Paul Dunne +103
Guido Migliozzi +124 vs. Soren Kjeldsen -155
Chris Paisley -156 vs. Nacho Elvira +124
Fabrizio Zanotti -187 vs. Kurt Kitayama +148
Sergio Garcia -115 vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick -105
Jon Rahm -150 vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick +130
Marcus Kinhult -115 vs. Aaron Rai -105
Sean Crocker -110 vs. Matthew Southgate -110
Scott Jamieson -110 vs. Victor Perez -120
Joost Luiten -135 vs. Mike Lorenzo-Vera +115
Joost Luiten -125 vs. Julian Suri +105
Paul Dunne -120 vs. Oliver Wilson +100
Kurt Kitayama +100 vs. Benjamin Hebert -120
Guido Migliozzi +110 vs. Chris Paisley -130
Dean Burmester -110 vs. George Coetzee -120
Adri Arnaus -120 vs. Ashun Wu -110
Haydn Porteous -135 vs. Oliver Fisher +105
Alejandro Canizares -125 vs. Alvaro Quiros -105
Nicolas Colsaerts -120 vs. Sebastian Soderberg -110
Bradley Dredge -110 vs. Louis De Jager -120
Ross Fisher -115 vs. Ashley Chesters -105
Need to Know
I missed badly on a few of my matchups last week at the BMW, but we nailed Sergio’s demise to post a 2-2 record. Valderrama isn’t long, stretched to just over 7,000 yards this week at par 71, but it has long been considered one of the more difficult courses on the Euro circuit. It’s one of the tightest tracks in Europe with tree-lined fairways and heavy rough putting an emphasis on accuracy rather than distance off the tee. Small, undulating greens will test any players putting ability. The course underwent a makeover following Andrew Johnson’s 1-over win at the Spanish Open in 2016. Scores have gotten lower since, but the difficulty remains. This particular event was created in 2010 to bring Valderrama back on the schedule. After a five year hiatus, the event returned in 2017 and this year moved up on the calendar from its previous October start.
Andalucia Masters Matchup Picks
Sergio Garcia +132 vs. Jon Rahm -166
Based on recent form, Garcia is a longshot to knock off the tournament favorite. But considering he absolutely owns Valderrama, it’s hard to bet against him. And at positive odds this is a no-brainer. Garcia has won this event three consecutive times and he has 13 top-10s in 14 lifetime starts, including the three wins and a trio of runner-up finishes. Sergio is also more laid back given his dual role of host, and that helps his game. Rahm missed the cut in his only appearance and this isn’t the best layout for him.
Andrew Johnston +125 vs. Matthias Schwab -157
This pick is more of a stretch, but with his odds and course form, Johnston is a solid choice. Playing Valderrama is the only way to learn the intricacies of the track, and “Beef” has done quite well in his three previous visits. He won the Open de Espana here in 2016, though he finished at 1-over. He also finished in the top-25 in the last two events and is coming off a strong outing in Germany last week.
Joost Luiten -125 vs. Julian Suri +105
I’m going to say last week’s MC in Germany is an outlier in what has otherwise been a solid season for Luiten. And like Garcia, Luiten has had strong showings at Valderrama over the years setting him up well for a rebound effort. He has two runner-up showings in four starts, losing both times by a single shot. Last year he returned from a five-month injury absence to land 11th at this event.
Ashley Chesters -105 vs. Ross Fisher -115
Not many played Valderrama the way Chesters did in the opening round last year. A sparkling 66 moved him into the lead, only to give it up over the next two rounds and settle for fourth. Still, the fact that Chesters dissected the layout shows he’s got the game to play here. His first go at Valderrama yielded 12th place in 2017, so the Englishman appears at ease. He’s also coming off his best finish in three months.
Marcus Kinhult -115 vs. Aaron Rai -105
Showing an affinity for golf in Spain, Kinhult has the game and temperament to be a solid pick. Kinhult also has a few visits to Valderrama in his back pocket and win at the British Masters in May. He heads to Sotogrande off a final round 66 at the U.S. Open, a score that bettered the entire field. I like the Swede to triumph in this matchup.
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