A stop in South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge brings the European Tour season closer to an end. The next to last stop in the Race to Dubai will be contested at the Gary Player Country Club in Sun City. The main focus this week for a majority of the field is securing a spot in the 60-player field for the season-ending DP World Tour Championship next week.
Defending champion and South African native Brendan Grace is among the favorites at +1375 on the odds posted at BookMaker.eu. The field is top-heavy with Rory McIlroy ( +650 ) and Sergio Garcia ( +825 ) the only players with odds lower than +1000. Haotong Li, who lost last week in a playoff at the Turkish Airlines Open, returns to the field and opened as the fifth favorite at +1575.
Odds to Win 2018 Nedbank Golf Challenge at BookMaker.eu
Rory McIlroy +650
Sergio Garcia +825
Louis Oosthuizen +1300
Branden Grace +1375
Haotong Li +1575
Shane Lowry +2150
Lucas Bjerregaard +2250
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2650
Danny Willett +2850
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +3050
Andy Sullivan +3500
Joost Luiten +3850
Martin Kaymer +3850
Matt Wallace +4450
Charl Schwartzel +4475
Tom Lewis +4475
Julian Suri +4555
Lee Westwood +5050
Alexander Levy +5050
Erik van Rooyen +5555
Dylan Frittelli +5655
Lucas Herbert +6050
Alexander Bjork +6150
Thomas Detry +6500
Ryan Fox +6600
Andrea Pavan +7050
Ross Fisher +7555
Matthias Schwab +8000
Jordan Smith +8500
Sam Horsfield +8554
Padraig Harrington +9000
Marcus Kinhult +9000
Adrian Otaegui +9000
Brandon Stone +9000
Darren Fichardt +9000
Chris Wood +9500
Thomas Aiken +9800
Paul Dunne +9800
Shubhankar Sharma +9800
Chris Paisley +10000
George Coetzee +10000
Mikko Korhonen +10000
Jorge Campillo +10000
Nicolas Colsaerts +11500
Robert Rock +11500
Matthew Southgate +12000
Ashley Chesters +12000
Hideto Tanihara +12000
Dean Burmester +12500
Nacho Elvira +13500
Odds Analysis
Rory McIlroy +650
It hasn’t been the best of times lately for the Irishman and even though McIlroy is the favorite, it’s probably wise to fade him as he works through his issues. Grabbing a share of 54th at the WGC-HSBC in China in a few weeks back further highlighted his inconsistent play. There have been some podium finishes, but the wins have evaporated, and he hasn’t played here since 2009, making him even less likely to claim the top prize. And the payout just isn’t worth it.
Louis Oosthuizen +1300
A local favorite who knows the layout better than any player in the field, Oosthuizen has done well here in the past, finishing among the top 15 in his last seven starts. That includes a share of eighth and ninth the last two years when the field expanded. He’s not a big hitter and that could impact his scores, but his iron game has been strong, helping him to a share of fifth-place at the CIMB Classic and a T29 at the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges.
Branden Grace +1375
Another South African, Grace looks to successfully defend his title on a course he’s had plenty of success playing. He arrived in Sun City last year on the heels of a pair of top 15 finishes at the CJ Cup and WGC-HSBC Champions and parlayed that into a victory. Recent form suggests fading the defending champ after a T41 and T48 in his last two starts, but it’s hard to pass on his love of country. “It’s the one event as a South African you always want to win. I love playing back home, especially in Sun City.” He carded a final-round 66 in last year’s event to win by a swing with an 11-under total.
Haotong Li +1575
If he can shake off the disappointment of a playoff loss last week at the Turkish Airlines Open, Li could be a factor on the leaderboard and his price is good. A 3-putt on the first playoff hole came out of nowhere and the Chinese star basically handed the trophy to Justin Rose. “A tough day for me, honestly,” Li said after the collapse. He’s played solid golf over his last four starts with a T5 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, T9 at the British Masters and T11 at the WGC-HSBC Champions prior to his runner-up in Antalya.
Course: Gary Player Country Club - 7,831-yards, Par-72
The course can stretch out to over 7,800 yards, which can make it a difficult chore for many golfers. Heavy hitters typically do well as long as they keep the tee shots in line. Going wide on the narrow fairways can get players in trouble quickly. The greens are relatively small and well-guarded, so making use of the short irons a must. Long, straight drives and greens in regulation are the formula for success, and as always making putts is what wins out.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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