The change of scenery will be a welcome sight to everyone as the European Tour heads to Vilamoura for this week’s Portugal Masters. I can guarantee we’ll see lower scores this week than what we had at Valderrama when no one finished under par. John Catlin escaped with his first ET victory despite not recording a birdie in the final round. He finished at 2-over, one swing better than Martin Kaymer to win the Andalucia Masters. Four of the previous five winners on the Dom Pedro Victoria Course scored 20-under or better and it’s happened seven times since the inaugural event in 2007. Tommy Fleetwood is set to tee it up at the Portugal Masters for the first time since 2016 and was installed as the big favorite on the opening line. Defending champion Steven Brown and Catlin are both further down the odds chart. BookMaker.eu has a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to Win Portugal Masters
Tommy Fleetwood +510
Ryan Fox +1800
George Coetzee +1800
Haotong Li +2000
Joost Luiten +2200
Jorge Campillo +2200
Marcus Kinhult +2200
Paul Waring +2800
Jason Scrivener +3000
Jamie Donaldson +3300
Wilco Nienaber +3300
Benjamin Hebert +3300
Jordan Smith +3500
John Catlin +4000
Thorbjorn Olesen +4000
Chris Paisley +4000
Steven Brown +4500
Ross Fisher +4500
Sebastian Heisele +5000
Robert Rock +5000
Wade Ormsby +5000
Matthew Jordan +5000
Lorenzo Gagli +5000
Guido Migliozzi +5000
Pablo Larrazabal +5500
Wil Besseling +5500
Brandon Stone +5500
Antoine Rozner +5500
Sebastian Soderberg +6000
Laurie Canter +6000
Jack Senior +6000
Calum Hill +6600
Alexander Bjork +7000
Johannes Veerman +7000
Lucas Bjerregaard +7500
Justin Walters +7500
Oliver Fisher +7500
Matthieu Pavon +7500
Odds Analysis
George Coetzee +1800
This tournament has in the past catered to players further down the odds board so sticking with a favorite could be a mistake. Fleetwood offers no value at his price and Coetzee is a wild card. He’s making his first Euro Tour start since the spring, though his exploits on the Sunshine Tour can’t be overlooked. A win in his native South Africa last week followed a runner-up showing, so it’s not like Coetzee has been sitting on his sticks. He’s familiar with the Dom Pedro layout posting three top-10s in seven starts.
Marcus Kinhult +2200
Of all the players near the top of the market the one that stands out the most is Kinhult. I’ll give him a pass on his MC last week since Valderrama ate everyone. We saw glimpses of form prior to last week with a T15 at the Wales Open and T13 at the UK Championship. His ball-striking was among the best in the field in those events. He’s enjoyed success on similar tracks and even shot a pair of 65s at Dom Pedro for a T4 in his only visit back in 2018.
Jason Scrivener +3000
Scrivener’s path recently has been along the same lines as Kinhult. He flashed solid form ahead of a MC at Valderrama, and he has done well on this course. After a brutal opening nine last week he rallied to finish the last 27 holes at 1-over, in line with the best in the field. However, the damage was done. He should at least feel better about how things ended. Assuming he’s just slightly sharper on the greens, Scrivener lines up as a solid pick to win this thing. He was T12 here last year with a consistent but not spectacular week.
Guido Migliozzi +5000
Nothing really stood out last week except for maybe Migliozzi’s opening round 69. Only three players had a better score for the week on the difficult Valderrama layout. While the Italian couldn’t continue the pace he did finish just three-shots off the pace tied for sixth. Considering his recent struggles with three MCs in six starts since the lockdown ended, his display opened some eyes. Migliozzi made his debut here last year finishing T14 after opening the tournament with a 71. He already has two wins in his brief career on Tour and he’s worth the risk.
Jake McLeod +12500
The young Aussie is a longshot but worth the gamble on a course he can potentially devour. Dom Pedro plays to his big hitting style with little punishment for going astray. He hasn’t done much since the restart with a T14 at the Celtic Classic his best finish, which is why his odds are so high. His only professional win came in a low-scoring event when he carded rounds of 63 and 65. And since we’ve seen longshots succeed here in the past, why not jump on board?
Course: Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course – 7,191-yards, par-71
The Victoria Course at Dom Pedro has hosted since 2007 and we’ve seen some incredibly low scores. Prior to Brown’s upset win last year when he was -17, the previous four titlists all came in at -20 or better. The streak would have been longer if not for the rain-shortened 2014 edition when Alexander Levy claimed a 36-hole victory at -18. The course underwent some changes prior to last year’s playing. Brown’s winning score was the worst in seven years and the second-worst in the 13-year history of the event. Even with the changes the track should yield a fair amount of birdies. It’s not a long course and wide fairways offer plenty of relief. Water is the biggest obstacle on nearly half the holes, but it hasn’t prevented players from going after it.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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