This is an unfamiliar position for Manchester City. The Citizens are in fourth place in the Premier League table with three losses in their first 12 matches. Manchester City are looking up at unbeaten Liverpool, Leicester City, and Chelsea, and their bid to win three straight domestic titles for the first time in club history is in serious jeopardy. City are currently nine points behind Liverpool almost a third of the way through the season, so they can’t afford to drop points at home against Chelsea.
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EPL Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Manchester City -217
Chelsea +523
Draw +384
Over/Under 3.5
Odds Analysis
It’s wild that the Premier League’s four Champions League spots might already be decided. There is an eight-point gap between Manchester City and both Sheffield United and Arsenal for the fourth-place spot in the table, and both Chelsea and City are on the right side of the chasm.
Chelsea’s play has been a surprise to most of the Premier League. The Blues were the Big Six club that most analysts were expecting to take a step back due to the transfer ban. They lost Eden Hazard to Real Madrid, and there were major questions regarding who would step up to replace him.
Multiple players have filled the void Hazard left, but the play of Tammy Abraham in particular has been fantastic. Abraham is the second leading goal scorer in the EPL with 10 goals through 12 games, just one behind Jamie Vardy’s pace. Abraham emerged as a potential weapon with Aston Villa when he was on loan with Villa last season, but no one expected this from the 22-year-old.
Manchester City is on pace to lose more games this season than in the previous two years combined. City’s first loss of the year came on the road to newly promoted Norwich City, and the Canaries showed that opponents could play more open and run with this club. That gave Liverpool the confidence to not play defensively against City like they did last year, leading to a 3-1 win for the Reds that put Manchester City’s hopes of a threepeat in danger.
This is the most explosive club in the Premier League though. City have the best goal differential in the Premier League at +22, and Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling have poured in the goals. Both players are on pace to tally 20 goals this year, putting them in contention for the Golden Boot.
Key Injuries
Marco van Ginkel has been out for over a year because of injury, and Chelsea won’t have Antonio Rudiger or Ruben Loftus-Cheek available for another few weeks either. Christian Pulisic is considered doubtful after missing both United States’ matches during the international break with a hip injury, while Ross Barkley is questionable.
Aymeric Laporte and Leroy Sane are long-term injuries for City, and Bernardo Silva has been suspended for this match. Oleksandr Zinchenko is out for another couple weeks with a knee injury, but Ederson has been cleared to return to the pitch.
Player to Watch
Kevin De Bruyne has had a fantastic season for City. The Belgian midfielder is the catalyst of this powerhouse attack, and he has more than twice the number of assists of any other player in the Premier League. His play in the middle of the pitch makes everything possible for players like Aguero and Sterling, so expect Chelsea manager Frank Lampard to put N’Golo Kante on De Bruyne in an effort to slow down this attack.
Prop Bet – Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals -143
Lampard will have Chelsea playing for a draw here, and he has the right tools to pull it off. The Blues have conceded a whopping 17 goals, but they have one of the best defensive midfielders in the game in Kante, and he can disrupt a lot of City’s offense.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
Both sides are dealing with key injuries, but I expect City to prevail at home.
English Premier League Odds: Manchester City 2, Chelsea 1
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