When it comes to the French Open there is Rafael Nadal and then everyone else. Rafa has won a record 12 French Open titles and he is the odds-on favorite to win the 2020 French Open. The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you are willing to bet against Nadal. The current betting odds really only give three players a chance to win. Nadal is the odds-on favorite and then it is Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem as the second and third choices in the betting. Let’s look at French Open odds and picks.
2020 Men’s French Open Odds
Rafael Nadal -120
Novak Djokovic +250
Dominic Thiem +300
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
Alexander Zverev +1800
Daniil Medvedev +2500
Stan Wawrinka +2800
Andy Murray +4000
Christian Garin +4000
Matteo Berrettini +4000
Felix Auger Aliassime +5000
Gael Monfils +5000
Juan Martin Del Potro +5000
Marin Cilic +6000
Andrey Rublev +6600
Borna Coric +6600
Karen Khachanov +6600
Kei Nishikori +6600
Milos Raonic +6600
Nick Kyrgios +6600
Denis Shapovalov +7000
David Goffin +7500
Alex de Minaur +9000
Casper Ruud +9000
Kevin Anderson +9000
All other players are listed at odds of +10000 or more or they are part of the field.
Favorite
It is no surprise that Nadal is the favorite to win this year’s French Open. Nadal is the greatest clay court player in history and he doesn’t lose on clay very often. The concern you might have with backing Nadal is that there will be no fans in attendance. If there is one tennis player who is really urged on by his fan support, especially at Roland Garros, it is Nadal. There is also no value betting Nadal at his current number.
Djokovic and Thiem
If you are willing to go against Nadal then your two obvious choices are Djokovic and Thiem. Djokovic is coming off an incident in New York at the U.S. Open that cost him a potential title so he should be really motivated in France. He also got the monkey off his back by winning this title in 2016. A motivated Djokovic could be worth a strong look in French Open odds.
Another motivated player will be Thiem. He has lost the final to Nadal in each of the last two years. It wasn’t close two years ago when Nadal won in straight sets, but it was more competitive last year, as Thiem split the first two sets before getting crushed in sets three and four. Thiem is coming off a title at the U.S. Open so we know he is in fine form.
Everyone Else
Good luck at finding someone else to contend for the title. All of the other players are listed at double-digit odds. I can’t make any case for taking Tsitsipas, as he couldn’t even win in the prep for this event, losing to Jannik Sinner in Rome. Alexander Zverev has yet to prove he can handle the big stage, as he was beaten by Thiem in New York. Maybe Zverev will eventually be a player you can trust to win a major, but I can’t take him until I see it. Medvedev is completely overvalued, as he loses early every year in the French Open. The one player who is at least a little interesting is Stan Wawrinka. He has had success at Roland Garros in the past, as he won the title in 2015. We haven’t seen much of Wawrinka lately, and it would be preferable to be getting him at odds of better than 30-1, but he is the only longshot worth considering.
2020 French Open Picks
I don’t take many favorites in sports and I am not backing Nadal. He may very well win, but I see no value in backing him at odds-on. Thiem is getting closer to Nadal on clay, but this is a tough turnaround for him after winning the U.S. Open. I think there is more value on Djokovic so I will make him my top pick at the French Open.
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