The Boston Red Sox topped the New York Yankees in the American League East division last year in what was ultimately the closest division race in baseball. It was the first time these two storied rivals finished one and two in the division since 2009.
After a string of division battles throughout the late nineties and into the new millennium, the luster of this AL East rivalry has waned a bit with both teams going through ups and downs, but the Sox and Yanks are back atop the division and it looks like they’re well positioned for another battle for division dominance in 2018.
The Yankees and Red Sox each added one of the top hitters on the market this winter and each boast well-balanced teams, making the AL East race, perhaps, one of the least predictable in baseball going into the season. Can the Bronx Bombers take back the division crown as they return to dominance or will the Sox topple the Evil Empire once again? Outside of the division’s top dogs from last year, can the Baltimore Orioles or Toronto Blue Jays put down seasons behind them and return to the postseason? Or, can the Tampa Bay Rays prove naysayers wrong after dealing away the face of their franchise?
ODDS ANALYSIS
One of the Yankees and Red Sox are almost certainly going to win the AL East, almost. Stranger things have happened in baseball, but—on paper—the Sox and Yankees are much deeper than any other team in the division. It should come as no surprise that the Yankees and Red Sox are the two favorites to take the division.
With the addition of Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and the development of the young core, the Yankees have moved ahead of the Red Sox in the eyes of the oddsmakers. New York is the odds-on favorite to win the division at -137. Meanwhile, Boston has the second most favorable odds at +139.
From there, the odds get much longer with the odds for the Blue Jays much better than those for the Orioles and Rays who BookMaker.eu has battling it out for the division cellar.
Toronto’s odds sit at +910 with Tampa Bay and Baltimore at +3000 and +35000 respectively.
The Orioles were the cellar dwellers in the division in 2017 after a run of five consecutive seasons at or above .500. Baltimore’s pitching—particularly the starting pitching—struggled mightily with the unit posting a 5.70 ERA, worst in all the Major Leagues. Coming into the offseason, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy were the only starters on the roster. The team added Andrew Cashner and brought back Chris Tillman to help fill out the rotation. The starting five should be better than in 2017, but the question is by how much.
Bundy pitched well for most of last year and Gausman picked it up in the second half after struggling through the start of the year. Still, these are the top two starters and they posted a 4.24 ERA and 4.68 ERA respectively.
Cashner’s ERA was low for the Rangers last year, but so was his strikeout rate. The peripherals indicate a major regression is likely for the right-hander. Meanwhile, Chris Tillman couldn’t possibly be worse than his 7.84 ERA last year, but he’ll have to be more than a little better to make any dent in the AL East standings.
Offensively, this Orioles team can mash. They have 20 home run power from nearly every position in the order. The bullpen could also be a strength even with Zach Britton out a couple months, but the starting pitching is still a big enough question to keep the expectations low for Baltimore.
As for the Rays, the pitching, of course is better than the rotation in Baltimore, but Tampa Bay’s offense lost 115 homers in the offseason with the departures of Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza. Tampa Bay’s offense wasn’t that great with those long balls either, scoring the second fewest runs in the AL.
The Tampa Bay rotation isn’t as strong as it’s been in years past either. They traded away Jake Odorizzi after a lackluster season figuring they had replacements available, but Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon are both out with Tommy John surgery. Now, Tampa Bay is planning to go with an unconventional four-man rotation, leaving the fifth spot to the bullpen and a string of Triple-A callups.
With the questions surrounding the Orioles and the Rays, it’s easy to see why they’re such longshots for the division crown. The Blue Jays, however, have odds much closer to the Red Sox than to the Rays. That’s certainly interesting considering the Rays outperformed the Jays last year.
Oddsmakers are banking on the Jays improving greatly with better healthy. Toronto was decimated with injuries in 2017, resulting in Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney as the most common double play combo. Both are solid defenders, but neither hit much, leaving the Jays with a couple holes in the order. The issue was exacerbated by a stark decline by Jose Bautista, down year by Kendrys Morales and injury shorted seasons by both Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin. When all was said and done, the Jays had just two regulars with league average or better production.
On the mound, Toronto told a similar story as Aaron Sanchez missed most of the year and J.A. Happ was limited to 25 starts.
With a bit more health, it’s certainly possible the Jays bounce back in a big way, but even fully healthy Toronto figures to fall well behind New York and Boston.
Last year, the Red Sox scored the sixth most runs in the AL and that was with just 168 homers. The ball wasn’t flying out of Fenway so the Sox added a big power bat to the order in J.D. Martinez, giving them the power they were sorely missing. Factor that in with a hopeful renaissance of David Price and bounce back campaign for Rick Porcello and it’s not inconceivable to expect Boston to add to the win total from a year ago.
The same can be said for the Yankees. With a strong second half aided by some key acquisitions and the trade for Giancarlo Stanton, New York announced to the world that the likable Yankees were no more and the Evil Empire had returned. Still determined to stay under the luxury tax threshold, New York won’t have much margin for error financially at the trade deadline which could limit this team a bit, but overall the team is stacked with talent.
New York has a monster bullpen full of strike out arms. The rotation is solid, though there’s a lot on the shoulders of Luis Severino to repeat last year’s success and Masahiro Tanaka to pitch better while still avoiding a season ending elbow injury.
At the plate, this team is one of the most powerful we’ve ever seen. The reigning AL and NL home run kings are on the same team with Stanton and Aaron Judge while Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius help fill out the roster. This is a team with Neil Walker at the bottom of the order and some of the game’s best prospects knocking on the door, ready to take over if anyone falters or gets injured.
QUICK PICK
The -137 MLB betting line given to the Yankees is the smallest given to any division favorite. It’s the Red Sox that complicates matters the most as those two teams seem rather close with the rest of the division at a sizable distance.
The Yankees are certainly the best bet on paper to take the division. We really saw this team come together in the second half, going all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS and the squad got much better in the offseason.
Really, the only potential weakness to this team is the rotation and it has the same five members that ended the season with the team. Jordan Montgomery is the fifth man and had a sub-4 ERA in 29 starts last year. That’s not too shabby.
Still, Severino is the opening day starter after he started last year fighting for a rotation spot in the spring. Yes, he finished third in the AL Cy Young Award voting, but is that sustainable for the youngster in his second full season of big league action?
In the end, asking questions of the Yankees’ rotation is nitpicking, indicating that they are a rather safe bet.
Another safe bet is taking the Red Sox to win the division if it’s not the Yankees. They are the reigning AL East winners and they are improved over the 2017 edition. The rotation has two former Cy Young Award winners plus Chris Sale who is the ace of the staff. The lineup is better. The addition of Martinez should take pressure off the likes of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi, opening them up for better years, too.
Of course, it’s not really rocket science to take either New York or Boston, but the other teams seem so far away. Yes, the Blue Jays could bounce back if healthy. That may be the next best option if you’re looking for longer odds for a long-shot pick, but the potentially more lucrative pick may be the Orioles. They’ve got the longest odds and are going for it despite an inferior roster.
The 2018 season is the last on the contracts for Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Buck Showalter and GM Dan Duquette. With so many players gone, it’s all-or-nothing in 2018. Sure, this team could bomb in the first half and sell off everything at the deadline or, it could hang around and go big at the deadline for one last hurrah before downfall. It’s a considerable longshot, but would pay off handsomely. Signing Alex Cobb could help the team’s chances a bit, too.
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