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Since being announced, this Home Run Derby class has gotten criticism for its anonymity amongst average fans and its reliance on players during breakout—and perhaps even fluke—seasons. Nevertheless, this derby still features four 20-home run bats and plenty of thump though there’s no doubt that Bryce Harper’s name stands out to most fans. We’ll see if Harper takes advantage of the seemingly weaker competition or if one of the lesser known faces can use this stage to grab the national spotlight.
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2018 PARTICIPANTS AND ODDS
No. 1 Seed: Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers ( +450 ) – 24 home runs in 2018
No. 2 Seed: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals ( +325 ) – 23 home runs in 2018
No. 3 Seed: Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers ( +650 ) – 22 home runs in 2018
No. 4 Seed: Alex Bregman, Houston Astros ( +1100 ) – 20 home runs in 2018
No. 5 Seed: Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs ( +300 ) – 17 home runs in 2018
No. 6 Seed: Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs ( +550 ) – 18 home runs in 2018
No. 7 Seed: Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves ( +800 ) – 16 home runs in 2018
No. 8 Seed: Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies ( +550 ) – 14 home runs in 2018
PARTICIPANT BREAKDOWN
Giancarlo Stanton and a couple rookie sensations in Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger headlined the event last year. This year, Bryce Harper is the big name of the group with the eight contestants being more obscure names. Outside of Harper, most of the game’s biggest name sluggers opted not to participate in the event.
Despite missing name recognition, the group of eight in this event still pack quite a bit of punch. The home run production this group of eight put up in 2018 is like that produced by last year’s Home Run Derby class though the career home run production—even compared to last year’s young crop of participants—is lacking. Harper and Freeman are each inching towards 200 career bombs, but the rest have little experience in their corner.
The class is rather wide open according to the odds with nobody having better than +300 odds. Kyle Schwarber has the best odds despite being the No.5 seed in the competition.
Schwarber spent part of last season in the minor leagues after a horrid start to the year. He bounced back in the second half and ended up with 30 home runs in just 129 games, but still had a meager .211 average and .782 OPS. He has a log of swing and miss in his game, but that’s par for the course for today’s sluggers.
Like the rest of the class sans for Harper, Schwarber brings no prior Home Run Derby experience at the big-league level though he’s clearly go the pop. He’s also got the pronounced uppercut swing to have success. He also showed in the 2016 World Series that he can come up to the plate cold and still produce and with the time off between rounds—assuming he makes it past Bregman in the first round—that’s an important skill.
Bryce Harper has the next best odds to Schwarber heading into the competition and if not for a below average seasons this year, Harper would undoubtedly be the favorite. That said, he’s looked lost at times at the plate and has really slowed down since a solid start. The home run production is still there and that’s earned him the No.2 seed, but in a derby at his home park and a lineup filled in inexperienced contestants, Harpers recent struggles are all that’s preventing bettors and odds makers alike from putting all their marbles in his proverbial basket.
After the Schwarber and Harper, Jesus Aguilar has the next most favorable odds at +450. He’s third in the oddsmakers’ eyes despite having the No.1 seed. Given that seed, he’ll match up against Rhys Hoskins who has hit the fewest homers in the tournament, a full 10 fewer than Aguilar. Nonetheless, Hoskins’ odds are just a bit behind Aguilar who has already slammed 24 home runs and has come out of nowhere to have a monster season. It’s not like Aguilar is slowing down either.
If Aguilar were to top Hoskins to advance to the second round, he’d take on either Schwarber or Alex Bregman who is probably the most underrated of contestants. With the worst odds of the lot, Bregman—according to odds makers—is nearly four times less likely to win the Home Run Derby than his round one counterpart, Schwarber. Nevertheless, he’s already hit 20 home runs this year, three more than Schwarber.
Bregman also represents the only American League contestant in the derby which is a bit strange given the power display hitters like J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge and others have shown in the AL. Most of the premier sluggers opted not to participate and, as a result, here we are.
With odds at +1100, Bregman—even as the No.4 seed—enters action as the biggest underdog. He’s not a bad bet, however, if you’re looking for someone to take a flyer on producing.
In the middle of the pack—at least according to the odds—are Hoskins and Javy Baez at +550, Max Muncy at +650 and Freddie Freeman at +800.
The aforementioned Hoskins has the fewest homers of 2018 of anyone in the derby, but he had a monster showing at the end of last year with a 1.014 OPS and 18 homers in 50 games. We saw what he could do when he gets hot, he’s certainly capable of putting on a show if his swing is right.
As for the others, Baez has excellent pure power—particularly for a middle infield. His career high in parts of five major league seasons is just 23 homers, but this is his first year getting a chance as an everyday player and he’s already hit 18 in the first half. Barring injury, this should easily be his best power performance.
As for Muncy and Freeman, they both have their merits. Muncy was a journeyman before this year. He spent all of 2017 in the minors after parts of 2015 and 2016 with Oakland. While the Dodgers used countless players to get to the World Series last year, Muncy remained at Triple-A, never getting the call. Out of necessity, he got a chance this year and he’s ran with it. He’s hit 22 homers in 217 at bats, the best rate of anyone in the derby. He’s got a .618 slugging percentage in a home park that’s more favorable to pitchers than hitters.
As for Freeman, the veteran first-baseman is the most experienced hitter of the lot. He’s got more career homers than anyone else in the derby. That said, Freeman—unlike the others in the contest—is more of a complete hitter, but less of a home run bat.
That—of course—is not to say Freeman can’t hit homers. He’s got five seasons with more than 20 bombs and hit 28 out of the park in 117 games last year after a 34-home run campaign in 2016. That said, he’s got more of a line drive swing compared to the better launch angles of some of the other contestants. Of course, we’ve seen line drive hitters win the Home Run Derby before against more prolific home run bats. Miguel Tejada back in 2004 may still be the best example. He won against guys like Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, and Barry Bonds. Harper is the closest thing to any of those guys in this year’s derby and pale in comparison at this stage of his career.
DERBY FORMAT
The derby format is the same in 2018 as it has been the last few years with a single elimination, bracket format.
Batters are pinned head-to-head against each other based on the seeding which is driven primarily on the number of home runs each contestant has hit on the season. Brackets add excitement to any sporting event and it has had that same impact on the home run derby since the format was established a few years ago.
Each player will be given a time limit and will strive to hit the most home runs during that time. As a result, each players’ pitcher is just as important as they need to be sure they’re given the chance to hit the balls out. A pitcher not only needs to put the ball where the hitter wants, but also needs to work fast to allow each participant as many chances to hit it out as possible.
As always, distances matters in the Home Run Derby. In order to incentivize the long blasts and fans crave, hitters are given extra time for moonshots which could lead to an edge for those able to eclipse the bonus limits.
In the end, the format is simple: head-to-head bracket style competition, leaving two final contestants to battle it out for supremacy. With eight participants, we have three rounds to establish a winner.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
While Aguilar is the top seed in the competition, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the odds-on favorites.
Harper makes sense as a logical pick. He’s familiar with the park as the hometown hero and while he’s had a rough season by his standards, he’s still racking up the longballs. It’s hard to go wrong with the hometown guy, but the home team has only had two derby winners in the history of the tournament: Ryne Sandberg in 1990 and Todd Frazier in 2015. Given the history, familiarity with Nationals Park doesn’t seem to be that big of an advantage.
In general, this is a balanced field. The winner will be decided simply be whoever gets hottest and gets in a groove. As such, one of the better sleeper picks may be Max Muncy. The ball is looking like a beach ball coming in to him right now and he’s been putting up insane numbers over the last month.
While it’s easy to discount Muncy and even Aguilar given their respective out-of-nowhere seasons, the two can mash, they’ve already shown that. It would be a great story for either to win the Derby.
We’re likely to see some big home run totals in the first round, but this derby is littered with first time competitors and longevity in the event is crucial. Harper’s the only one that’s seen action in the Derby and could use that experience to his advantage. That would be the bigger reason he should be considered a favorite as opposed to his homefield edge. Harper is probably the safest pick, but really, anyone could win this event and Muncy would certainly make for a great story. He’s also probably the best sleeper pick.
The biggest sleeper is Alex Bregman and he shouldn’t be counted out. He’s belted 20 bombs this year and somehow is still underrated as a player despite leading the defending World Series champions in homers.
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