With the 2018 Major League baseball season in its final week, it’s time to look forward to some October baseball.
We’ve enjoyed some great postseasons over the last few years including the Chicago Cubs breaking the Curse of the Billy Goat and the Houston Astros getting their first World Series title not long after Hurricane Harvey ravaged much of the greater Houston area. Each of those last two World Series went the distances with some exciting games and moments along the way.
Even getting to those World Series offered a ton of interest and intrigue with the thrilling Wild Card contests, well-balanced Divisional Series matchups and some fun Championship Series shenanigans.
This season, as we approach October and the postseason, we have a well-defined class of playoff teams in the American League while the National League is coming more clearly into view. Given how this season has played out, there are a couple heavy favorites to win it all in the AL, but as we’ve seen time and time again, postseason baseball is a different animal and once we get to October baseball, things can change in a heartbeat.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Coming into the season, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers were the odds-on favorites to win it all in 2018 after meeting in a thrilling 2017 World Series. Both are likely postseason teams again with the Astros having clinched a postseason spot and the Dodgers up on the Colorado Rockies in the NL West.
Houston remains a favorite to win it all, trying to be the first back-to-back World Series winner since the New York Yankees in 2000. Repeating as champions, however, is very tough and the Astros have a treacherous road ahead to do it.
In the AL alone, Houston has the Boston Red Sox sporting the best record in the sport and the best odds for a World Series trophy. They’re at +350 with the Astros second at +375.
After those two AL favorites, the odds jump considerably with the Dodgers and Chicago Cubs sporting the bets odds out of the NLF at +600 and +800 respectively. The Cleveland Indians are the only other team with odds below +1100 for the New York Yankees. The Tribes’ odds are at +850. Of the postseason contenders, the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are a likely pair for the NL Wild Card and sport the longest odds.
It’s certainly reasonable that the top-five best odds are for teams likely to win—or having already clinched—their respective divisions. Getting to the postseason is essential to win the World Series, but with the new—relatively—Wild Card format, getting to a postseason series is the better benchmark.
We’ve seen Wild Card teams win the World Series. In fact, the 2014 World Series between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants was a battle of Wild Card winners. Of course, getting past a winner-take-all one game against the league’s other Wild Card team is no easy task. Baseball is a marathon sport and one-game poses a much different environment than teams have been playing under for the previous 162-games.
As a result, it’s easy to point to division winners—or likely division winners—like the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs as heavy favorites, but there are certainly some interesting sleeper teams in the mix with much longer odds.
Of those sleeper teams, the Indians and Braves stand out. Those two teams are both division winners, but the Indians have costed to the playoffs in a weak division and under-performed expectations along the way. The Braves, meanwhile, are a very young team and coming into the year weren’t supposed to compete so they continue to have their nay-sayers despite a season long success story.
Atlanta’s pitching may be the weakness here, but the team can hit and they’ve continuously surprised their doubters and could certainly do it again. Meanwhile, the Indians don’t have any huge detractors. The bullpen was an issue most of the year, but the team’s getting healthy at the right time. Andrew Miller is back. Cody Allen is throwing better and Brad Hand is a lockdown closer. Trevor Bauer is back which will either help the pen or the rotation and the team has a healthy Josh Donaldson that just deepens a lineup that was already amongst the top handful in the sport.
While the Red Sox are heavy favorites, they’ll have to contend with either the Oakland Athletics of the New York Yankees in the division series. Head-to-head contests with the Yankees are always unpredictable and the A’s continue to be one of the hottest teams since the middle of the season. Either could put together a couple strong games in a short five-game series and send the Sox packing.
Of course, the Astros will have to go against the Indians in the ALDS. There is not an easy path to the World Series in the AL.
In the National League, the Cubs currently sport the best record, giving them the Wild Card team if the standings hold up which will be a division foe provided the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals finish as the Wild Card winner. Playing a team that shares your division is always difficult as both teams know the other well. Of course, a Dodgers versus Braves showdown doesn’t exactly give either team a pass either.
QUICK PICK
If you put a lot of stock in history, the Astros don’t seem like a likely team to win the series given there have now been 17 straight seasons without a back-to-back World Series winning team. Of course, those were different teams so it’s hard to extrapolate those results to pertain to this Houston team. After all, on paper, this Astros team has a better rotation and much better bullpen while sporting much the same lineup.
The Astros could easily repeat as World Series champions and would be a great pick along with the Boston Red Sox. The two have the best records in baseball and the best run differentials, purely by the numbers, they’re the best teams and—thus—should have the best chance to win it all.
Of course, we all know the best team does not always win the World Series. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series having won only 83 regular season games. That may be an extreme example, but it serves the point: the best team doesn’t always win the World Series.
Despite that reality, the Red Sox and Astros are still probably two of the best picks to win it all if you’re going to follow the book. Boston’s record speaks for itself and the team boasts a strong rotation, good bullpen and dynamic offense with a pair of MVP candidates. Houston, meanwhile, has a great offense and the best pitching staff.
The AL seems like the best bet to win it all as its top heavy with talent. Even though the NL had the better record in interleague play, most of that can be attributed to the teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers at the bottom of the barrel in the AL. The bottom is terrible, but the top is loaded.
If you’re looking for good sleeper options, the Indians may be the best bet. They can match up with the Astros in the rotation in a short series and have experience in the bullpen, provided it comes together. Add in the Donaldson factor and couple MVP candidates of their own and this team could be a dangerous one in October.
As for the Wild Card teams, you can never say never, but the Yankees’ rotation is a question with Luis Severino’s second half. The other arms are throwing well, but can a rotation headed by J.A Happ, Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia be trusted? Maybe. On the other side, who is even in the Oakland Athletics’ rotation? Is Mike Fiers an ace? Hardly, but you can tell a story where the bullpen bails out the rotation after three or four innings every night. That’s hard to sustain all the way to the World Series, however.
On the NL side, the Cubs are the best team on paper, but their bullpen is a question with Brandon Morrow out for the year. The Dodgers have a similar question in the backend save for Kenley Jansen in the ninth. The Braves may be the most balanced team, but is there enough veteran leadership to overcome the youth factor? The NL provides the best potential postseason path for a Wild Card team. If you want to go with a real sleeper, Milwaukee is an interesting pick. The bullpen is good and somehow the starting pitching has held up.
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