The Cleveland Indians have owned this division the last few seasons, topping 90 wins in each of the last three years. This division has gone through stretches were it has belonged to different teams. For now, it’s the Indians’ division to lose.
The Tribe has very little legitimate competition. It’s them, possibly the Minnesota Twins and not much else barring a huge surprise.
Over the last two seasons, Cleveland has won the division by a combined 30-games. The divide dropped a bit in 2018 from 2017 with the Indians regressing to just 91 wins. Still, in a division with three teams rebuilding and the Twins being loaded with question marks, it’s as easy a path to the division title as there is baseball.
The Indians are the favorites again. They should win the AL Central again, for the fourth straight season. Can they take advantage of the weak division again or will the Twins or another team come out of the nowhere to surprise?
ODDS ANALYSIS
White Sox +3750
Indians -437
Tigers +9000
KC +9000
Twins 314
Almost every other division in baseball has a two headed—or more—monster at the top. In the AL Central, it’s the Indians and then everybody else and the odds certainly bear that out.
Cleveland sits with odds at -437, the heavy favorite to win a weak AL Central, again. The Twins are the next closest team at +314 while the rest White Sox are +3750 and the Tigers and Royals are both well behind that at +9000. Only the Astros in the AL West have better odds to win their division than the Indians.
The Tribe’s best asset is its starting pitching, but the team scored 818 runs last year, the third most in baseball behind only the Red Sox and Yankees. Cleveland hit 216 home runs and batter .259 as a team.
The team lost a big offensively over the offseason with Michael Brantley going to Houston, Josh Donaldson leaving for Atlanta, Yonder Alonso moving on to Detroit, and Edwin Encarnacion being dealt to Seattle. To fill the spots, the Indians brought back Carlos Santana and added Jake Bauer, Hanley Ramirez and a slew of other smaller names to the mix. The team lost some thump, but also saved some money.
The duo of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are still in place and give the team a good infield. The outfield is some combination of Leonys Martin, Bauers, Tyler Naquin, and Greg Allen, not the most inspiring crew. Plus, Lindor starts the year with an injury. With that, more than anything else, the Indians offense takes a hit.
Fortunately for Cleveland, the rest of the division is forgiving and the starting rotation more than dominant to cover for a reduced offense.
Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco may not be together in a rotation much longer, but they remain the top-three in Cleveland for now. It’s a hard trio for anyone in the game to beat, much less any other team in the AL Central.
At the back of the rotation, Shane Bieber will be improved from his experience and Mike Clevinger remains one of the more underrated arms in the game following his 13-wins and 3.02 ERA in 200 innings last year.
This rotation is stacked, but it needs to be to help a team that’s deficit in other areas including the bullpen. Brad Hand is a lockdown closer in the ninth, but the rest of the pen isn’t as strong. That was an issue last year and kept the Tribe floating around .500 for much of the year.
For all that is wrong with the Indians, they still have the best overall team in the division, but the Twins aren’t as far off as it may appear given their respective records last year.
Minnesota wasn’t satisfied with their 78-win season a year ago and made moves to that effect this offseason. Rocco Baldelli brings a new atmosphere to the team.
Additions of C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez help beef up the offense. The team took some gambles on some flawed players like Schoop and Cron as well as an older bat in Cruz, but they’ve all got good upside for this year. There’s also optimism that Byron Buxton can get back to his 2017 form. The same is true of Miguel Sano once he’s healthy again.
On the mound, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez are five solid options. This isn’t a group of top-tier starters like Cleveland, but all five have experience and can, if right, keep the team in the game. Meanwhile, the bullpen in Minnesota is more proven than the one in Cleveland with Blake Parker, Trevor May, Taylor Rogers and Addison Reed in the latter innings.
A lot would have to go right for the Twins to overtake Cleveland, but there’s a narrative there to allow it to happen. The Indians have taken a step backwards from last year and the Twins have made sizeable moves, giving them potential for a leap forward. If that happens, the gap between these teams becomes much narrower.
Now, as for the other three teams in the division, the odds makers are a bit more positive about the White Sox than the Tigers or Royals, but any of the other three winning would be a major shock.
The Sox added some veterans in the pen and the lineup, but the team’s still waiting on Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech before it’s truly ready to make a jump forward.
As for the Royals, they just lost team leader Salvador Perez to season ending surgery. It’s a year for development for this team. Detroit—save the loss of a franchise catcher—is in the same boat.
QUICK PICK
The Indians are the obvious pick in this division. The White Sox made plays on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, but ultimately come up short. They have a good farm system, but are still a couple years away.
The Tigers and Royals are even further way than Chicago. Realistically, only the Twins are competition for the Tribe and they finished last season six games below-.500 with 78 wins, a full 13-games behind Cleveland.
Over the last several years, Minnesota has been rather up-and-down in their production. They were terrible in 2016, made the playoffs in 2017 and took several steps back in 2018. The team needs a lot to go right, but here are pieces there that would allow you to tell a story where they’d overtake the Indians.
Amongst the four teams in the AL that are near-locks to see October baseball, the Indians are the most vulnerable. They still have a stacked rotation which gives them a bit of leeway, but the bullpen beyond Brad Hand has plenty of q questions and the outfield is lackluster at best.
The Indians basically spent the offseason getting worse. They needed to shed money and did so without selling off a key rotation piece. That was the team’s biggest accomplishment. While that wouldn’t be enough in nearly any other division in baseball, the AL Central remains the weakest in the game. That bodes well for an Indians team that has enough to likely sit atop the division again.
The Tribe are the obvious pick here. They should win the division easily, again. If you’re going to stray from the chalk, the Twins are the only other viable option.
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