The Boston Red Sox have won the American League East division in each of the last three season despite efforts from the New York Yankees to get back to the top over the last few seasons. It was the second straight year the Yankees and Red Sox finished in the top two spots in the division, an occurrence we’re likely to see again in 2019.
The Tampa Bay Rays are the wildcard here. While they could certainly be a Wild Card team, they’re the least predictable team and the only other one in the AL East to be able to throw a challenge to the big boys at the top.
For what it’s worth, the game’s most storied rivalry is back in full swing with these two teams again going at it for the division crowd. This is the least certain division in the American League given the makeup of the junior circuit, leaving it a fight between these two top dogs. Can the Bronx Bombers finally take back the division crown or can the defending World Series champions, begin their title defense with a divisional victory?
ODDS ANALYSIS
Just like last year, this division should come down to the Yankees and Red Sox at the top and just like last year, its New York as the odds-on favorites at -140 despite Boston taking the crown the year before.
Here in 2019, the Sox are coming off a 108-win season that ultimately led to another World Series title. Despite that, Boston is a bit behind New York according to the odds makers at 136.
For the Red Sox, the concern is the bullpen. Aside from the departures of Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, the Sox’s team is very much the same as the one that won the World Series. The team brought back Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce. A full season of both should help. Dustin Pedroia is healthier, too. While he’s getting up there in age, he’s a nice consistent bat at second that allows Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt to serve in a super-sub role, adding to the team’s depth on the offensive side.
Boston also has two of the top AL MVP candidates from a year ago. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are two of the best hitters in the game while Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers are very good pieces as well.
This team will hit. They hit last year and could be even better. The pitching is pretty good in the rotation, too. Eovaldi is at the back of the staff and he was huge for this team. Eduardo Rodriguez has some electric stuff. He’s been unable to fully harness it to this point, but he’s not a bad option in the fifth spot.
At the top, the team has two former Cy Young Award winners and one perennial contender. Chris Sale remains one of the game’s best hurlers. David Price re-emerged after a rough start to his Boston career. And while Rick Porcello may never return to the form he showed in his Cy Young season, he’s still a more than capable No.3.
In the bullpen, however, Kimbrel is a potential future Hall of Famer. He pitched to a 2.74 ERA and 42 saves. He’s a strikeout machine and while he had some issues in the playoffs, he helps the rest of the pen lineup appropriately. With him and Kelly gone, the team now has Ryan Braiser and Matt Barnes pitching the final innings. The team needs Tyler Thornburg to get back to what he was in Milwaukee or this unit is woefully short.
That certainly opens the door for the Yankees to leapfrog to the divisional top spot. The Bronx Bombers were 100-win team themselves last year and have an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. While David Robertson moved on to Philadelphia, the Yankees brought in Adam Ottavino to replace him and resigned Zack Britton. Along with Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Dellin Betances and a slew of other options, the Bombers can shorten games to just four or five innings and dominate.
The rotation, however, should be good enough to go six most nights. Masahiro Tanaka gets the opening day start with Luis Severino sidelined with an injury. That’s a blow for the Yankees who will hope to get him back from a rotator cuff injury. Severino crashed in the second half last year, but is still a top line starter. When he gets healthy, he and James Paxton are a nice duo at the top.
Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happ round on the starting five though Sabathia is injured, too, leaving Luis Cess and Domingo German as possibilities to start the season in the rotation.
Offensively, the Yankees are again going to mash. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton should mash more home runs in their second year together. A healthy Gary Sanchez and more experience for Gleybar Torres and Miguel Andujar could mean dangerous things for opposing pitchers. Really, the only issue with this lineup is its very right-handed heavy. Brett Gardner and the switch hitting Aaron Hicks are the only starters that hits from the left side and Gardner stands to see a reduction in playing time with the depth in both the outfield and infield.
With the Yankees and Red Sox back to being super teams as they were earlier this century, it makes it very hard for any other team to emerge from the division. Nevertheless, the Rays put up a fight last year and if anyone is going to break into October from this division other than New York or Boston, it’ll be Tampa Bay.
The Rays have odds of +1150 to win the division. They won 90 games last year and have certainly improved the roster.
Tampa Bay as an organization has to remain one step ahead of everyone else. They don’t have the payroll to compete with most teams in free agency and instead have to look for innovative ways to win. Last year, it was the use of the opener.
In 2019, the Rays have some more starting pitching, but the opener still figures to be part of the game plan a couple times a week. But, reigning Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell has some friends in the rotation this year with Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow figuring to get consistent starts. From there, the Rays have a plethora of interesting arms. Kevin Cash will be tasked with getting the most out of them as he can. He’s a master of that. Despite lacking many big name hurlers, the Rays had the second best team ERA in the AL at 3.74.
Pitching will have to lead the way for this team, but Tampa Bay also found a different way to score runs last year. While most teams are going to mashing long balls, the Rays cut way back on the home runs, but managed to score more runs.
Additions of Mike Zunino, Avisail Garcia, and Yandy Diaz could make a mark.
Pulling up the rear in the AL will be the Baltimore Orioles. They’re odds are longer to win a division than any in the game at +32500. The Toronto Blue Jays are heavy longshots as well, but their odds are nearly four times better at +8000 on BookMaker.eu.
The Orioles were historically bad last year and may have gotten worse. They won’t have half a year of Manny Machado. They’ve lost Adam Jones. The offense is headed by Jonathan Villar, a cast off of the Brewers last year. The pitching is hoping for bounce back seasons from Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner while the final two spots are filled by fringe prospects and Four-A players.
This team is going to bad, again, and in the running for the top pick in next year’s draft…again.
As for the Jays, they’re nearly a lock for the No.4 spot. They’re better than Baltimore, but not as good as the other three teams. An oblique injury to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is discouraging, but he’s still going to make his debut this year and that’s the biggest story. The Jays have some good young players that’ll get a taste of big league action.
QUICK PICK
This is really a two team race. The Yankees are favored, but only slightly. The Red Sox overcame a similar line last year to win the division and could certainly do so again.
The bullpen, however, is a major concern. The Red Sox could make a move midseason to address the pen. That’s one of the easiest areas of the team to build in July with a ton of bullpen help available, but the Sox’s once stacked farm system has become a bit depleted in recent years.
This team will still win games, but the Yankees look like the more complete team at the moment, even with issues in the rotation to start the year. Severino and Sabathia shouldn’t miss much time and the Bombers have depth they can turn to in the meantime. They also don’t need to ask for much from the fill-in pieces, just four or five solid innings before the pen takes over and does the rest.
The American League has really become a league without parity. It’s a league of the super teams and the rebuilding teams, there’s very little in between. The Yankees and Red Sox are both super teams, both are chalky picks. The Jays and Orioles are rebuilding and not looking to win this year.
The Rays, however, do make an interesting longshot pick. They could pay out significantly if they win and they were a 90-win team last year. The problem is, with the Yankees and Red Sox, that’s not nearly enough. Both could easily win 100 again in 2019. The Rays may be worth a bit as a hail Mary play and while the team may find a way into October, it seems wildly optimistic to expect them to beat either the Yankees or Red Sox, let alone both of them.
This division is truly down to the Red Sox and Yankees. Any other bet beyond a small throw-away bet on Tampa Bay is reckless.
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