The Houston Astros may not be truly in the west, but they’re west enough to fit into an AL West division that appears to—once again—be theirs for the taking. After suffering through the rough years, the Astros have come out on the other side as perennial contenders and will again compete for the best record in all of baseball, let alone the division.
Behind the Astros, the rest of the division isn’t great. The Oakland Athletics played great baseball last year, coming out of nowhere to provide a challenge in the division and ultimately nab a Wild Card, but can they do it again given the rotation they have coming into the year?
Other than the A’s, can the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, or Seattle Mariners make a similarly surprising jump from pretenders to contenders?
At least on paper, this division belongs to the Astros, again, in 2019. Can anyone unseat the defending division champions? Can the Athletics make a push and build off a surprise 2018 campaign? Will the Angels finally put it together while they still have Mike Trout in uniform?
ODDS ANALYSIS
This is Houston’s division to lose. It’s that simple. They’re favored at -800 for a very clear reason.
Last season, Oakland won 97 games and still was six games out of the division. Houston had—by several accounts—a down year form their potential. Oakland far exceeded theirs, at least in the rotation.
The A’s and Astros were neck-and-neck offensively, but Houston was first in baseball in pitching with a 3.11 team ERA, getting excellent starting pitching and relief work.
Midyear last year, the Astros made an effort to improve the bullpen and it worked well. They brought in Roberto Osuna in a controversial move and added Ryan Pressly, both are back in 2019. Osuna pitched to a 1.99 ERA in 22.2 innings while Pressly allowed just two runs and had a 0.600 WHIP in 23.1 frames.
Those two help solidify the back end. They’ll be key in 2019 as Collin McHugh moves back from the bullpen to the rotation. That’s a loss, but a full season of Pressly and Osuna should help.
Brad Peacock could also return to the starting rotation depending on how things shake out. The good thing for the Astros is they have a ton of talent on the farm they can use in either the rotation or the pen if needed, giving them plenty of options.
At the plate, the Astros solidified their lineup by adding Michael Brantley. The outfielder isn’t a huge power bat, but puts the bat on the ball and gives quality at bats. The Astros are full of excellent hitters rather than just raw power guys which gives them a more consistent offense in many ways.
The Astros got a break out year from Alex Bregman who elevated himself to superstar level alongside former AL MVP Jose Altuve and talented shortstop Carlos Correa who missed time last year.
Houston’s offense was strong in 2018, but could see a bump thanks to Brantley and a healthy Correa in 2019.
As scary as it is for the rest of the division, the Astros could be better than the 103-win team they were last year, making topping them for the division crown that much less likely.
As noted, Oakland can stack up with Houston in most facets of the game. They scored more runs in 2018 and have a strong bullpen as well, but the starting staff is an issue. The odds are +920 for the A’s which may be generous, but understandable given how much they surprised us in 2018. They’ve have to be equally as shocking in 2019 to jump Houston.
Mike Fiers leads the way for Oakland’s rotation. He was an Astro himself a couple years ago and essentially cast off from the rotation. He, Marco Estrada and Brett Anderson all lead the pack and are all solid veterans, but would be back-end starters at best for Houston.
Bob Melvin is as good as it gets trying to maximize his talent on the mound. He won’t ask too much from the starting staff and will lean on the pen, but that could wear on guys like Blake Treinen, Joakim Soria and Lou Trivino as the season wears on.
The A’s are very likely to overachieve compared to the names on the page, but the gap between those names is too wide to realistically expect Oakland to upset Houston in the division.
Meanwhile, the rest of the division is even less likely to surprise. The Angels are the next most likely team to win the division per the odds makers at +1050, but they’ve lounged in mediocrity for most of Mike Trout’s career. The consensus best player in baseball continues to produce and leads the offense, but even with him, the Angels were 15th in baseball in runs scored. They also finished in the a few spots lower on the mound with a 4.15 team ERA.
The team entered the offseason with a number of holes, most notably on the pitching side. They’ve filled them all, but did so on a budget. Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill join Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs and Jaime Barria in a rotation full of capable starters, but lacking a top-or-the-rotation option.
Cody Allen was brought in to stabilize the bullpen, but he’s coming off a down year and brings nearly as many questions as the internal options. Allen could bounce back. Harvey and Cahill could be good, but even if everything went according to plan, it’s hard to see Los Angeles topping even a less-than-ideal Houston team.
Moving down the division. The Mariners sit at +6000 and Rangers at +7500 showing that neither has any real chance to put it all together and topple a super team like Houston.
Seattle kicks off the season early, but already lost Kyle Seager. He’ll be back this season, but it’s a bad sign. Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion hold down the middle of the order while Marco Gonzales and Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi are atop the rotation. There are pieces in Seattle, but this is very much a time in mid transition after competing last year and selling off, partially, over the winter.
Texas is a bit further along in the process than the Mariners in that they’ve torn the thing down a bit more. Now, they’re gambling on upside starters like Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez and Shelby Miller. They’ll probably hit on one or two, but all four would have to perform to have even a remote chance.
The plan for the Rangers is to get one or two pitching well in July and flip for future pieces at the deadline which may bode well for the team’s future, but not so much the present.
QUICK PICK
The Astros are the pick in this division. They’re heavy favorites for a reason. And while chalk picks like Houston here don’t pay huge dividends without a hefty investment, this is one of the more certain bets in the MLB preseason.
Yes, Houston lost a ton of starting pitching with the likes of Morton, Keuchel and McCullers all out of the starting five this year. But, there’s depth upon depth for the Astros.
The starting pitching in Houston is still ahead of all the other teams in the division. The bullpen for the Astros is amongst the best in the sport and the offense could be improved on the one that was sixth in baseball in runs scored last season thanks to a few nice additions along with better health and production from some returning players.
Oakland is probably the most likely team to upset Houston, but that seems farfetched. The A’s overachieved last year thanks to unlikely success from the starting staff. They pieced the rotation together throughout the year and it worked. It’s hard to do that back-to-back seasons. Oakland has a good offense and a good bullpen, but the starting staff just isn’t there.
Meanwhile, the Angels made some small moves to get incrementally better. They added starting pitching, but nothing top-end that can compete with Verlander or Cole. The bullpen is still shallow and the offense—beyond Trout—not as strong as Houston.
As for Seattle and Texas, those teams should finish at the bottom of the division. We thought that about Oakland last year, but neither the Mariners nor Rangers have the core foundation Oakland had. Beside, even with that huge surprise season, the A’s still came up short in the division.
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