The National League Central is deep. The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers went down to the wire in 2018 while the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates both made pushes and ended the season over-.500. The Cincinnati Reds were the only true weakness and they’ve made a ton of progress over the offseason.
The NL Central has three legitimate contenders and five teams all capable of winning more games than they lose. That should make it an exciting one to watch and a tough one to produce more than one playoff team given the tough competition day-in and day-out in this stacked division.
Can the Brewers repeat at the top despite serious questions in the rotation? Or will the Chicago Cubs retake the top spot with some bounce back seasons by big name players? Of course, there’s also the chance the Cardinals—behind newly required Paul Goldschmidt—leap frog both and take the crown. The division should be a dog fight at the top and formidable at the bottom.
ODDS ANALYSIS
While the Cubs and Brewers went down to Game 163 for the division win last year, it’s the Cardinals that sit as the favorite in 2019, albeit by a slim amount. St. Louis’s odds sit at +187, with the Cubs at +196, and the Brewers at +244.
Beyond those top three, the Reds and Pirates find their odds a bit longer to jump to the top of the NL Central. Interestingly, it’s the Pirates with the longest odds at +1964.
Pittsburgh won 82 games last year, just six fewer than the division favorite Cardinals. Granted, the team was very streaky, but the Pirates are still an interesting sleeper. With three top teams like the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers, it’s a tall task to win the central, but the Pirates do have some pieces.
Starling Marte brings an excellent combination of power and speed. He should be better than the 114 OPS+ he put up last year, too, an extra year removed from his PED suspension. Corey Dickerson really revamped his approach last year and became a very good hitter. His homers dropped, but he batted .300. The rest of the lineup is all average or better players with Adam Frazier, Francisco Cervelli and Josh Bell, among others. Nearly everyone had a 100 or better OPS+ a season ago, but is that enough?
The team’s best player a season ago was, arguably, Gregory Polanco who mashed 23 homers and hit well, but still had a .839 OPS. That’s a good number, but a bit low for the best player.
On the pitching end, however, the Pirates quietly stack up pretty well. They have Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams both coming off excellent campaigns. They both produced 14 wins and an ERA+ above 120.
The rest of the rotation has some upside too in the likes of Joe Musgrove and Chris Archer. Meanwhile, in the pen, Felipe Vazquez is still an elite level closer while several others produced sub-3 ERAs last year and are back in the fold for 2019.
Moving up the odds a bit in the central, the Reds come in at +1343, still quite a longshot given the teams ahead of them.
Cincinnati won only 67 games last year, but their lineup and bullpen were pretty good. The starting pitching was just that bad.
Over the winter, the Reds added to the starting staff. They jettisoned Homer Bailey and brought in Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark and Alex Wood to add to Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. The rotation is still not one of the top in the game—or even the division—but it is much improved on the unit that pitched to a 5.02 ERA.
Beyond the rotation, the pen should be improved too merely by having less innings and pressure. Raisel Iglesias, Jared Hughes and David Hernandez are a solid back three to help close out games when they do have a lead.
As for the offense, Yasiel Puig is the big addition to the lineup, though the depth is also much improved with Matt Kemp, Jose Iglesias and Derek Dietrich all additions to the bench. This team had the lineup—when fully healthy—it was just a matter of that health and the pitching. Now, the depth and pitching are improved and this team should take a big step forward, but even a 20-win improvement on last year isn’t going to swing the division to them.
As for the three more legitimate contenders for the division, it makes sense the Cardinals would be the odds-on favorites despite being out of the mix last year.
St. Louis improved the defense throughout the year last year with Harrison Bader in center field and moving Jose Martinez off first and putting Matt Carpenter back there. Carpenter slides back to third this year, but it’s to make room for Paul Goldschmidt who will impact the team offensively and defensively.
The Cardinals are no longer sacrificing defense at multiple positions around the diamond and that should help in run prevention.
St. Louis always had good starting pitching options. Jake Flaherty really showed something in his rookie year while Miles Mikolas with 18 wins and a 2.83 ERA was an ace.
The offense really takes shape with Goldschmidt in the middle of the order. He adds protection in the order and takes pressure off Marcell Ozuna and company. He also allows Carpenter to slide back to the top of the order where he’s always hit better in his career.
With Andrew Miller in the bullpen along with Jordan Hicks, the Cardinals are probably the most complete team in the division given the Cubs’ issues in the ninth innings and the Brewers’ concerns in the rotation.
Speaking of those two teams, they’re the ones that went to Game 163 and the Brew Crew came away with the division, but how will they defend the crown?
The rotation is key. For the second straight offseason they didn’t do as much as most thought they should for the starting pitching. It’s all hold-overs in 2019 from the same group that led to the use of openers in the playoffs. Jhoulys Chacin is back and is the No.1 guy. He needs to repeat what was ultimately a career year for him at age 30, which is a heavy order.
Beyond him, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta all belong in the majors, but this is a team hoping and wishing on young pitching to develop according to plan without a lot of certainty.
Now, where there is certainty is in the bullpen. Josh Hader is one of the best relievers in the game while Corey Knebel serves as the closer after bouncing back from a rough first half last year.
The addition of Alex Claudio is big, too. It gives the team another lefty along with Hader and allows Hader to be used beyond the lefty matchup role.
As for the offense, Yasmani Grandal was signed as a sizeable upgrade behind the dish and Mike Moustakas is back to play second with Travis Shaw sliding back to third. Defensively it raises questions, but offensively it’s solid, especially with Lorenzo Cain and the reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich in the order. Even with a likely regression from Jesus Aguilar, this team will be a strong offensive unit again in 2019.
Speaking of strong offenses, the Cubs ranked No.9 in baseball without a full season of Kris Bryant and with struggles elsewhere in the order, too.
The former NL MVP hopes for a healthier year in 2019 to provide more than the 13 homers he hit in 2018.
Just by internal improvements, the Cubs should score more and the pitching could be improved as well.
Yu Darvish was a disaster last year, but with health he can only be better. Meanwhile, a full season of Cole Hamels is all but certain to beat the numbers Tyler Chatwood produced while he was walking the world.
For the Cubs, the issue truly is the late innings of the pen. Pedro Strop has the ninth inning with Brandon Morrow is out, but that weakens the rest of the pen, though the unit is still rather strong overall. The ninth just doesn’t have that lockdown closer.
QUICK PICK
While the Reds made major strides towards competing, they’re fringe wild card contenders at best. They’ll be better than the 95-loss team last year, but that’s not saying much.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are underrated. They have a better rotation than most think and a rather balanced lineup. Still, the squad doesn’t stack up on paper to the Cubs, Cardinals, or Brewers.
The Cardinals are the odds-on favorite at BookMaker.eu. Goldschmidt is a huge addition that helps balance the lineup. The defense, which has been the Achilles Heel of team over the last few years is much improved with Bader in center, Wong at second, and Molina behind the dish.
This team is strong and balanced. There are great pitching options regardless of whether Martinez throws in the rotation or the pen. Flaherty and Mikolas are legitimate top of the rotation arms. And the pen stacks up a lot better with Miller.
The Cubs and Brewers have similar odds to the Cardinals and could realistically win the division, but both teams have bigger question marks than the Cardinals.
For the Cubs, it’s the bullpen. Morrow was good in the closer role—when healthy—last year, but he’s out for a while. There are good relievers, but the ninth inning is a concern.
The Brewers have uncertainty in the rotation. It’s unrealistic to expect Chacin to be as good as he was last year. There’s some depth in the rotation, but no real top-of-the-rotation option which puts Milwaukee behind both Chicago and St. Louis in that department.
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today!
