The American League East is often credited with being the best in baseball. That division does have the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at the top, but it doesn’t compare to its National League counterparts when you break down the division top to bottom. It’s the NL East that is likely the best in baseball right now.
In the offseason, there’s little down the NL East was the most active, bringing in players like Josh Donaldson, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Patrick Corbin, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and more while retaining—albeit in a different uniform—Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto.
In this division, there are realistically four teams that are all vying for the division crown and the odds reflect that with no clear cut favorite to win it. We know the Miami Marlins are not a factor, but otherwise, the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals all have reason to believe they can take home the division crown in 2019. With so much parity, this division could be a four-team race deep into September.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Last year, the Nationals were supposed to run away with the division. The Braves and Phillies were still rebuilding. The Marlins had just torn everything down to the ground with big trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and others. Meanwhile, the Mets were coming off a poor season and quite thin across their roster.
Washington—along with the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central—may have been the best bet at the start of the year to win its division in baseball. As it turns out, however, that actually was not the case.
The Nationals faltered in 2018, never able to gain momentum to carry them to the divisional top spot. Instead, the team continually lounged around .500 leading to an indecisive trade deadline which kept them stuck in the middle through the end of September.
Here in 2019, despite the woes of 2018, the Nationals find themselves as close to chalk for the division title in the NL East as there is with odds at +188.
Washington is the slight favorite per the odds despite losing Harper in free agency to a fellow NL East team.
Gone are Harper, Daniel Murphy, Matt Wieters and some key late season bullpen arms in Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland. Instead, the Nationals will give Victor Robles a chance to stick in the Majors. They’ll give a full season to Juan Soto. They’ve also added Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes as a tandem behind the plate, an upgrade over Wieters. On top of that, they’ve added Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough to strengthen the pen.
Those replacements cover the lost players. Harper’s power will be missed, but Robles offers better defense and speed with plenty of upside.
In addition to just replacing what was lost, the Nationals made the biggest pitching acquisition of the offseason with the signing of Patrick Corbin. The southpaw had a huge season last year and can break up righties Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg at the top. That’s a dynamic top of the rotation while Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson are quality veteran arms at the back-end.
There’s certainly a narrative to how the Nationals could win this division, but it’ll be far form an easy path.
The next most favorable odds per BookMaker.eu belong to the Phillies. Philadelphia got a ton of publicity following the signing of Harper and have odds at +215.
The Phillies were neck and neck with Atlanta atop the division much of last year before falling off late and eventually finishing just under-.500. The team was too young and inexperienced. The arms got tired and the bats weren’t good enough. That’s not the case in 2019.
It’s impossible to find a team that was more active in the offseason than Philadelphia. They’ve replaced half of their starting lineup with McCutchen, Segura, Harper and Realmuto. Add in Rhys Hoskins and it’s a more-than-formidable lineup. Further additions to the bullpen should help Philly avoid a second half collapse as well. With David Robertson in the closer’s role, Seranthony Dominiguez and Hector Neris can use their power arms in set up roles with less pressure and stay fresher.
The rotation didn’t get a boost, but that was a strength last year. Aaron Nola was a Cy Young contender with a 2.37 ERA and 17 wins. Jake Arrieta isn’t the pitcher he was a few years ago, but he’s still a veteran presence and stabilizer. From there, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin all have big arms, each pitching to sub-4 FIPs. The stuff is there, they just need to put it all together.
Moving down the line, the Mets were the only team just about as busy as the Phillies. The team brought in Brody Van Wagenen in an unconventional move to serve as GM. He’s been wheeling and dealing, one of few executives to interview for the job to pitch the idea of competing in 2019. That resounded with ownership. While it was an upward battle in the offseason to get the roster in shape, on paper—at least—the team looks like it truly can compete.
Robinson Cano and Wilson Ramos help solidify the heart of the order, giving the elite starting rotation more support. Dominic Smith and Peter Alonso both look good this spring and can hold down first base while Todd Frazier is out. J.D. Davis looks to have third until Jed Lowrie is ready. This team is perpetually littered with injuries, but this year they’re prepared with depth and more depth.
While the lineup is greatly improved, this team will still win and lose on the backs of the rotation. The backs of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard aren’t bad backs to lean on. Beyond them, Zack Wheeler really broke out last year while Steven Matz had a sub-4 ERA, not bad for the No.4 starter.
In 2018, deGrom famously nabbed just 10 wins despite a historic season with a 1.70 ERA and 1.99 FIP. He got terrible run support. Beyond that, the bullpen also let him down. The pen will provided better support in 2019.
Edwin Diaz was a huge acquisition, giving the Mets one of the game’s best closers. Beyond him, New York added Jeurys Familia back into the mix with Justin Wilson, Luis Avilan and others. Between Diaz, Familia and Wilson, the team has plenty of arms that’ve pitched the ninth inning and should be able to close out other big innings earlier in the game, too.
After three teams, we’re finally to the defending NL East champion Braves who have the fourth best odds to win the division at +395. Of course, these are all quite close and the difference between first and fourth place could come down to a handful of games.
In any case, the Braves are built to compete like the rest of the division. In the offseason, Donaldson was added and along with Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr., the team now has three legitimate MVP candidate.
Not only does Donaldson represent a big bat in the order, he also allows Johan Camargo to slide into a utility role along with Charlie Culberson and Adam Duvall. The team has a deep bench, something that was an issue last year.
On the mound, the Braves didn’t make any big moves and that’s likely why they sit with the longest odds of the four. Atlanta was content going with the young guns in the organization in 2019.
There is a ton of Major League ready pitching. The rotation is strong with Mike Foltynewicz, Julio Teheran, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman and one of a number of pitcher vying for the fifth spot. The bullpen also has a ton of talent. Darren O’Day provides veteran leadership while A.J. Minter, Arodys Vizcaino and company have big arms.
Leaving the young arms to win roles and carry this team was a gamble, but Atlanta has the quantity and quality for it to work.
Of course, wrapping up this division is a Marlins team that continues to look towards the future. The team finished its major selloff this offseason shipping Realmuto to the Phillies.
The roster is basically young guys getting looks and veteran fill-ins on their last leg. It’ll be awhile until Miami is relevant again.
QUICK PICK
This division is wide open and the odds reflect that. No team is the clear favorite though the Nationals are given the edge in the odds despite losing Bryce Harper. The improvements to the pitching and optimism around the young outfield must be enough for most to overlook the teams down year in 2018.
Washington certainly does have a good team. They’re balanced, they’ve got speed, defense, pitching and plenty of offense, too. They could win it all, but it’s a bit odd that they’re the favorites.
Philadelphia is a trendy pick now, too, after the Bryce Harper acquisition. The offense is much improved and the pitching has the arms to do big things, but there’s still uncertainty there even with Harper. After all, the team that had Harper last year is projected to win the division by the odds makers without him when the team was barely over-.500 with him in the fold.
The Mets are also an interesting team. They’ve certainly got the pitching—health provided—and the bullpen is much better. Health has already shown itself to be an issue in Spring Training. Is Wilson Ramos, Robinson Cano, and Jed Lowrie enough to help this offense without Yoenis Cespedes?
Oddly enough, the team that has the longest odds of the four with any realistic chance at winning the division is the one that won it last year: the Braves.
Let’s not overlook this team just because it was inactive for most of the offseason. Donaldson is a big add that lengthens the lineup. The +395 odds for Atlanta look the best in this division and could be a great play.
With three potential MVP candidates in the lineup with Freeman, Donaldson and Acuna along with a plethora of talented arms, this is certainly a good team to bet on, particularly after they’ve already proven to us—and themselves—that they could win the division last year.
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