It was close in 2018, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have owned the National League West for the last six years. Despite the consistent success in division, the Dodgers haven’t won a World Championship during that streak, but has been in the World Series in each of the last two seasons.
The Colorado Rockies put up a great fight last year, ultimately coming up short. It’s Colorado that’s got the best chance of toppling the Dodgers in 2019 as well with the other three teams in division longshots at best for the division crown.
The main question for this division is: can the Dodgers stay healthy enough to win? And, do the Rockies have enough to withstand an entire season with half their games at that altitude while maintaining enough down the stretch to topple L.A. if it should falter? This division really is the Dodgers’ to lose with little outside of Colorado breathing down L.A.’s neck.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers won the division with a 92-win season last year before advancing to the World Series for the second consecutive year. Despite that, we saw Manny Machado jump ships in the division from the Dodgers to the San Diego Padres just a bit further south.
Machado was a bit of a surprise signing by San Diego who are still considered very much a rebuilding team though the future is close. The Padres will see some of their plethora of top-ranked talent break in to the big leagues this year. The talent may be in place for the next San Diego playoff team by year’s end, but the young guys will need time to grow together as a team before making any real climb.
Overall, the Padres sit in the middle of the pack in odds at +1550 according to BookMaker.eu. The Dodgers and Rockies both have better odds, but the Giants and Diamondbacks both sit at +3500.
The odds place San Diego firmly in the middle. Machado helps the offense and youngsters like Luis Urias, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Mejia will all get shots. The offensive talent in this farm is great and is trickling to the majors, but these guys will need time to adjust to playing together. The Padres also sorely need an upgrade in the rotation.
San Diego didn’t bring in any outsiders for the rotation despite a league worst 5.09 starters’ ERA. That is where this team still needs work as San Diego’s offense should be improved and the bullpen always seems to be good as the team’s been one of the best at building contending-worthy relief options.
On the Giants’ and Diamondbacks’ side, it’s pretty clear these teams will have to take a step back before they get better.
Arizona already made moves towards that, shipping off Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. Now, David Peralta is the star of the offense. The D-Backs also lost Patrick Corbin to free agency, giving them a downgrade on the mound as well.
The signing of Adam Jones could pay off and there are some good offensive pieces around Peralta in Eduardo Escobar, Steven Souza Jr. and Jake Lamb, but this team had some bad offensive slumps last year and we learned as Goldy went, so went the D-Backs. The problem is, he really did go this year and the Arizona offense could follow suit in straight up disappearing.
For the Giants, it’s a bit of a different story. This team is old. It needs to get younger, but it needs the pieces to do that. San Francisco may end up just being a showcase for other contending teams this year. Interestingly, the rotation could be good. Drew Pomeranz and Jeff Samardzija would both need to bounce, back, however, making it unlikely this rotation as a whole will live up to its potential.
Back to the teams with a legitimate chance at the division, the Dodgers stand has heavy favorites at -355. The Rockies are at +400.
L.A. certainly makes sense as the chalk pick. The team has won the division time and time again. It’s also the best hitting team in the NL last year with 804 runs scored. The Dodgers also rank first in the league in ERA.
Clayton Kershaw has seemingly regressed the last couple years and his health is in question to start the year. While he’s had some setbacks, he’s still an elite pitcher when healthy as evident by his 2.73 ERA in his team leading 161.1 innings.
Kershaw will start the year on the DL which is a setback, but there’s depth. Hyun-Jin Ryu was fantastic across 15 starts last year. Kenta Maeda is a good starter as is Rich Hill though Walker Buehler is the rotational compliment to Kershaw as a talented, young right-hander.
The Dodgers also added Joe Kelly in the offseason to help in the bullpen. Kelly took care of business against the Dodgers in the World Series and is a nice boost to a bullpen that was good last year overall, but was missing a set up option. The Dodgers now have that.
L.A. also freed up the outfield this winter, moving Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig. That opened up a spot for A.J. Pollock in center field. It also balances out the roster, opening a potential spot for Alex Verdugo.
In the end, the Dodgers’ have a stacked lineup. They’ll miss Machado, but Corey Seager is coming back to replace him. Russell Martin and Austin Barnes are already in place to replace Yasmani Grandal.
The Dodgers can score and they showed that last year, but the Rockies can score as well. Coors Field is a big part of it, but Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are good enough to it the ball out of any park.
The addition of Daniel Murphy is a good one, too, bringing in an elite contact bat in an environment prone to homers, but on a team not desperate to get them.
The Rockies scored the second most runs in the NL last year so they stack up well in that department against the Dodgers. Pitching, on the other hand, is tough in Colorado.
Given the pitching challenges, it’s hard to find pitchers to sign up to pitch with the Rockies. Instead, the team grew the arms and they’ve grown some impressive ones.
Kyle Freeland, most notably, went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA. His FIP, however, is a bit higher due to a low strikeout to walk ratio. German Marquez, on the other hand, is on the other side of that with a lower FIP and strong strikeout numbers though he pitched to a 3.77 ERA, still an impressive number.
From Freeland to Marquez, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Antonio Senzatela the Rockies send up a quality starter every game. But even if the rotation does its job with the offense following suit, the bullpen could be an Achilles Hell.
The pen was a focal point of last offseason and the results didn’t pan out. Despite that, most onboard that disaster are here again for this one save Adam Ottavino who moved to greener pastures in New York and have left a void in the set-up role most likely to be filled by Seung Hwan Oh.
QUICK PICK
Whether it was the signing of Manny Machado or the advancement of the youngsters, it’s still a big surprising that the Padres odds are as good as they considering the team went 66-96 last year as one of the worst teams in the entire NL. How much can a team really improve in one year?
We’ve seen major turnarounds before and San Diego is moving in the right direction, but the team isn’t there just yet. They’re the trendy longshot pick, but the narrative that would lead them to the division title is still a hard one to decipher. Of course, neither Arizona nor San Francisco are realistic picks either, even as a shot in the dark.
This division really comes down to the Dodgers and the Rockies. The Dodgers are the chalk because they’re the safer pick. They’ve won the division for six years running and it’s easy to go with the incumbent, particularly one that’s proven to be as consistent as L.A.
If Buehler and Kershaw are healthy enough to make a large bulk of their starters and provided Jansen is able to continue to be his dominating self in the ninth, the Rockies are working at too much of a disadvantage to have a shot.
Of course, if there are some bumps for the Dodgers—and most teams have them—the Rockies will have an in.
Colorado has a top-end, young pitching rotation. They have a strong bullpen that underperformed by a wide margin in 2018. They also have a strong lineup with Arenado, Story, Blackmon, and Dahl. This team can rake with the Dodgers. Their starting pitching—if it holds up—can compete with the Dodgers, too.
If you’re looking for certainty, the Dodgers are the pick, but the Rockies could certainly create an upset, leaving Colorado as the best—or at least the closest thing to—a viable longshot pick.
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