Shohei Ohtani is listed as the favorite to win the Home Run Derby on Monday, July 12th at Coors Field in Colorado on ESPN. Ohtani leads the league in home runs and he will be making history in this year’s All-Star game, as he becomes the first player to be elected to the game as a pitcher and as a hitter. Ohtani will have some tough competition in this year’s Home Run Derby, as joining him will be defending champion Pete Alonso, hometown favorite Trevor Story, among others. Let’s look at Home Run Derby odds and Home Run Derby picks.
2021 Home Run Derby Odds
Shohei Ohtani +250
Joey Gallo +500
Pete Alonso +500
Juan Soto +500
Matt Olson +600
Trevor Story +600
Trey Mancini +1000
Salvador Perez +1000
2021 MLB Home Run Derby Seeds
1- Shohei Ohtani
2- Joey Gallo
3- Matt Olson
4- Salvador Perez
5- Pete Alonso
6- Trey Mancini
7- Trevor Story
8- Juan Soto
The big draw for the Home Run Derby will be Ohtani. He leads the league with 32 home runs and he will start Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game as the designated hitter. There is a good chance he will also pitch during the game. Ohtani is on pace to break the Angels’ record for home runs in a season (47).
Joey Gallo is the second seed and he is second in the league with 23 home runs. He has been on a good run of late, as he had 10 home runs in his last 10 games after hitting two on Wednesday.
Matt Olson is right behind Gallo with 21 home runs. He hit 36 home runs in 2019 and that was in just 127 games.
Salvador Perez has hit 20 home runs and he will be the starter behind the plate for the American League on Tuesday. His career high is just 27 home runs and it would be shocking if he won Monday’s contest.
Pete Alonso won this contest two years ago, so he is the defending champion since the contest wasn’t held last year. He was a beast in 2019 when he hit 53 home runs, but he has not hit for power at the same rate since, but you almost have to throw out last year since it was a messed-up season due to the virus.
Trey Mancini missed most of last season due to colon cancer. He hit 35 home runs two years ago and he started this season off hot before cooling down. He is a longshot to win.
Trevor Story is the hometown favorite. He hit 37 home runs in 2018 and he hit 35 in 2019. His numbers are down since then, but he is very capable of having a big night in Colorado on Monday.
Juan Soto has had a disappointing season, but he is young and he should enjoy the format of this contest that rewards consistent power.
Home Run Derby Format
The format for this contest on Monday night will have the players going against one another in terms of seeds. Ohtani will face Soto, Gallo will face Story, Olson goes against Mancini and Perez takes on Alonso. Each player gets five minutes to hit as many home runs as they can and the winner advances to the next round. Players get an extra 30 seconds if they hit at least one home run that travels at least 440 feet.
Home Run Derby Picks
Ohtani is the clear choice to win this event and his odds are probably still generous at +250. Those odds have dropped from opening at +300 and I think they could drop further. I think you can throw out Perez and Mancini, as I give them very little chance to win. I also don’t know that Soto can get past Ohtani so I would probably throw him out. I don’t know that Olson has enough to win this contest so if I was going to go with someone else other than Ohtani it would be Gallo, Alsonso or Story. I don’t see enough value in Story at his current odds and I think Gallo will fade as this contest continues.
I will make two picks and take Ohtani at odds of +250 and Alonso at odds of +500.
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