Two years ago, Pete Alonso was riding high as the hot new marquee man of the New York Mets. Alonso was coming off a 2019 campaign in which he was named National League Rookie of the Year, All-MLB First Team, and a National League All-Star. Alonso was also the National League home run king with 53 dingers. Since then, he has tapered off. Last year Alonso totaled 37 home runs. His OPS dropped from .941 in 2019 to .863 last season. Pitchers have adjusted to Alonso, who also lacks protection in the Mets' lackluster lineup. Instead, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna is the hot ticket in the future’s market for home runs.
2022 MLB Most Home Runs Odds: Vladimir Guerrero (Toronto) -155, Jose Abreu (Chicago White Sox) -124, Mookie Bets (Los Angeles Dodgers) -124, Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels) -122, Yordan Alvarez (Houston) -120, Bryce Harper (Philadelphia) -118, Juan Soto (Washington) -110, Matt Olson (Oakland) -109, Aaron Judge (New York Yankees) -107, Luis Robert (Chicago White Sox) -106, Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees) -105, Fernando Tatis (San Diego) +118, Ronald Acuna (Atlanta) Even, All Other Players +1200 or higher
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Odds Analysis
Gamblers will find plenty of quality candidates for the player with the most home runs in 2022. Thus, the betting odds are relatively similar, with the potentially good value that comes without a massive and obvious public betting favorite. Last year Vladimir Guerrero of the Toronto Blue Jays and Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals shared the home run crown with 48 each. The aforementioned Pete Alonso opened as a +1200 longshot this season.
Ronald Acuna – Even Money
After so many heartbreaks and close calls, the Braves and their fans are still on the high of their long-awaited World Series championship. Ironically enough, the Braves won it all without one of their best players. Ronald Acuna missed the second half of the season with a torn ACL. In 82 games, he had 24 home runs and a .990 OPS. In his last full season (2019), Acuna hit 41 home runs with an OPS of .883.
Giancarlo Stanton -105
Last year Giancarlo Stanton his 35 home runs in 139 games for New York with a .870 OPS. In 2017 Stanton was the MLB home run king with 59 as a member of the Miami Marlins.
Luis Robert -106
Luis Robert is coming off an impressive partial season with 13 home runs in 68 games. His OPS was .945. His high status with gamblers is tied into the White Sox being a favorite for the American League pennant.
Aaron Judge -107
The oft-injured Aaron Judge finally stayed healthy for the first time since 2017. In 148 games, Judge hit 39 home runs with an OPS of .917. Judge hit 52 home runs in 2017 and will be in a lineup that will offer protection.
Matt Olson -109
Matt Olson is coming off a career season in which he hit 39 home runs with an OPS of .911. Olson may be overpriced here on an Oakland team expected to take a step back.
Juan Soto -110
Juan Soto is a curious favorite in that he only hit 29 home runs in 151 games during the 2021 campaign. Soto’s career high for home runs was 34 in the 2019 season. Gamblers point towards the pandemic shortened 2020 season where Soto hit 13 home runs in 47 games with an insane 1.185 OPS and .695 slugging percentage. But is that ever sustainable over the full 162 games?
2022 Most Home Run Best Bet
Giancarlo Stanton hits in a strong lineup that will protect him. And he is a proven home run king.
BookMaker Pick: Giancarlo Stanton
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