It’s no surprise to see Pete Alonso installed as the favorite to win the 2023 Home Run Derby. Alonso won this event in 2019 and 2021, and he is the only previous winner in the field for this event. However, it would be silly to dismiss the rest of his competitors as this is one of the most talented fields that we have ever seen at the Home Run Derby. Unlike the NBA’s Slam Dunk challenge, the MLB Home Run Derby brings out the best of the best and makes it an event worth watching.
The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby will take place on Monday, July 10, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.
MLB Betting Lines
2023 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds
Pete Alonso (NYM) +250
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) +300
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) +450
Luis Robert (CWS) +550
Adolis Garcia (TEX) +600
Randy Arozarena (TB) +800
Adley Rutschman (BAL) +1000
Mookie Betts (LAD) +1200
Although he is a two-time winner, Pete Alonso doesn’t have the best value to win the Home Run Derby. He squeaked by all his opponents on his way to the title in 2019, winning each round by just one run. Alonso had the sixth most home runs in the first round (14) and he would have been trounced in the second round if he faced either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Joc Pederson. Instead, he was able to eke out a victory over Ronald Acuna Jr. and took advantage of a tired Guerrero to win the title.
His performance was better in 2021, as he had the highest total of any contestant in the first round. However, Alonso once again only won the semifinals and finals by a single home run. His luck ran out last season after he once again bested Acuna by a single longball with Julio Rodriguez beating him by eight homers in the semifinal, so I would avoid Alonso at this price.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is someone to strongly consider at +300 though. Guerrero’s only prior participation in the Home Run Derby came in 2019 when he finished with a record 91 home runs. He ran out of gas when taking on Alonso in the final, but he will understand how to pace himself better with that prior experience.
There is a little value in Julio Rodriguez to win the Home Run Derby at +450 too. Rodriguez knows this park better than any other player, and he cranked 30+ home runs in the first and second round of last year’s Home Run Derby. However, he must face Alonso in the first round of this competition as the No. 7 seed, so there is a decent chance that he is one and done.
Luis Robert is the No. 1 overall seed, so he should see some action at +550. Robert may have the easiest path to the finals as Adley Rutschman is not much of a home run hitter, and the White Sox standout should be able to have the upper hand on either Randy Arozarena or Adolis Garcia in the second round.
The two players to avoid here are Mookie Betts and Rutschman. Betts has a sweet swing and is a great all-around player, but he doesn’t have the pure power to crank a lot of home runs over the span of three rounds. He has never hit more than 35 home runs in a season, and the 30-yard-old is more worried about taking the Dodgers back to the World Series than individual accolades. As for Rutschman, the 25-year-old has just 24 home runs in 838 plate appearances over the span of two MLB seasons. Given those numbers, it’s very hard to see the Baltimore catcher hitting the 60+ home runs he will probably need to win the event.
With all this in mind, the best bets are Guerrero and Robert. They have the swings and the stamina to take it down.
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