Chicks dig the long ball. And apparently so does everyone else. Home runs have always been the most exciting part of a Major League Baseball game and we’ve seen a lot more of them in recent years. You didn’t have to be a fan of the New York Yankees to be captivated by Aaron Judge’s pursuit of the AL home run record last season. Judge set the record blasting 62 homers, the seventh-highest season total in MLB history. Judge had 16 more homers than Kyle Schwarber to win the MLB crown and is positioned as a favorite to hit the most long-balls in 2023.
If you don’t want to throw down on Judge or any other player to lead their league or MLB how about a home run matchup? That’s right, there’s a list of season-long home run matchups to choose from where you pick a player to hit more dingers than his head to head opponent. You might think Judge is a lock to hit more homers than Mike Trout and oddsmakers have a similar take positioning the Yankee slugger as a -186 favorite in their head to head. But keep in mind that Judge hadn’t hit more than 39 homers in any of the previous four seasons. And if Trout stays healthy there is some value backing him.
2023 MLB Home Run Matchup Odds
Aaron Judge -186 vs. Mike Trout +147
Kyle Schwarber -137 vs. Pete Alonso +107
Yordan Alvarez -110 vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -120
Shohei Ohtani -175 vs. Fernando Tatis +139
Matt Olson -135 vs. Manny Machado +105
Austin Riley -115 vs. Kyle Tucker -115
Byron Buxton -120 vs. Giancarlo Stanton -110
Juan Soto -125 vs. Jose Ramirez -105
Mookie Betts -117 vs. Paul Goldschmidt -113
Rafael Devers -170 vs. Salvador Perez +135
Nolan Arenado -105 vs. Julio Rodriguez -125
Eugenio Suarez -105 vs. Rhys Hoskins -125
Corey Seager -120 vs. Anthony Rizzo -110
Ronald Acuna Jr. -107 vs. George Springer -123
Freedie Freeman -163 vs. Jose Altuve +130
Carlos Correa -135 vs. Joey Gallo +105
Aaron Judge -186 vs. Mike Trout +147
Since I mentioned this matchup in the opener I have to include it in this section. Judge had a season for the ages in 2022 establishing the AL record for homers and it didn’t completely come out of nowhere. Judge hit 52 homers in 2017 when he played 155 games and over his career he’s averaging 49 homers per 162 games. The key is can he play an entire season? I guess that holds true for Trout as well after he played just 119 games last season and 208 games over the last three years. Trout had good power numbers last year with a home run every 11 at-bats, the best ratio of his career. If he had as many ABs at Judge last season he would have been on pace for 52 homers. While it’s tempting to back Trout in this matchup, and there is value attached, with all things being equal Judge is the better power hitter.
Kyle Schwarber -137 vs. Pete Alonso +107
While he hasn’t quite matched his 53-homer rookie season of 2019, Alonso has been much more durable and consistent at the plate than Schwarber, and at plus odds the Mets slugger is a good value pick. Alonso hit 40 homers last year, just six behind Schwarber in the HR race. And for Schwarber it was a career year since he hadn’t hit more than 38 homers in a season. He has the benefit of playing in what is considered a hitters park, but I can certainly see Schwarber regressing due to his offensive metrics. Schwarber strikes out way too much leading the NL in that category last season while batting just .218.
Mookie Betts -117 vs. Paul Goldschmidt -113
Based off last season’s numbers it’s easy to see why the odds are what they are. Both players hit 35 homers in roughly the same number of plate appearances. But Betts isn’t really known as a power hitter. He did reach the 30-homer mark twice previously but last year’s total was a career best. Goldschmidt has consistently hit more than 30 homers and averaged 34 big flies over the last five full seasons. Goldy also plays a less stressful position allowing him to accumulate more at bats and chances of hitting a home run, which makes all the difference in a matchup of players with nearly identical power figures.
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