It’s almost time for the boys of summer to take over the sports betting landscape and MLB futures odds are out. Championship odds suggest only a few teams in the running before the season actually gets started, but that hasn’t always worked out for the favorites with the expanded playoff field causing all kinds of problems. The Arizona Diamondbacks finished six games over .500 last season and reached the World Series with the fewest wins of any playoff team. Texas won the Commissioner’s Trophy as the No. 5 seed in the AL beating No. 1 Baltimore and No. 2 Houston along the way. Every team has aspirations of winning the Fall Classic but it’s not a realistic goal for every club.
A more realistic betting option is wagering the over/under on a team’s projected win total. There are always teams that overachieve, much like the 2023 DBacks, and ones that underachieve during the regular season. The totals and odds are more representative of a team’s value entering the season. Regular season success doesn’t always crossover to the postseason. You can ask the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers about that. The Braves won a MLB high 104 games last year and were ousted in the NLDS.
The Dodgers have dominated during the regular season winning at least 100 games in five of the past six full seasons. During the shortened 2020 campaign LA won 71.7 percent of its games, the highest winning percentage during that span. Once again the Dodgers are projected to win the most games in 2024 with a preseason win total of 103.5 while the Braves are at 101.5. Winners of 50 games last season and without much done to improve the roster, the Oakland Athletics have the lowest projected win total at 57.5 with the Colorado Rockies also under 60 at 59.5.
2024 MLB Betting Lines
Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Win Total
Over 103.5 (-105)
Under 103.5 (-115)
With an abundance of resources the Dodgers are able to make some ridiculous offseason moves that keep them at the top of the heap. They’re hoping the transactions can help them once the postseason begins. They were swept by Arizona in last season’s NLDS and have just one playoff win in the last two years despite winning 211 regular season games. this offseason the Dodgers landed the biggest prize in Shohei Ohtani and upgraded the rotation with Yoshinobu Yamamota and Tyler Glasnow.
Though the Dodgers were upset by NL West foes in each of the past two postseasons, the gap still appears to be wide. The DBacks overachieved last season and the Padres are going another direction after a failed 2023. The Giants and Rockies won’t offer much resistance. Most publications have LA going below their projected total, however, in a watered-down division and with hurlers Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler returning at some point during the year, the Dodgers appear stronger making the OVER a solid wager.
Dodgers Win Total Pick: OVER 103.5 (-105)
Texas Rangers 2024 Win Total
Over 89.5 ( +117 )
Under 89.5 (-144)
Some would say the Rangers overachieved last season making the playoffs on the final day of the regular season with 90 wins. Oddsmakers have them around the same number with the price suggesting they don’t reach 90. Pitching was an issue last season with the bullpen having more blown saves than saves and the Rangers will open the season with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on the shelf.
The key for the Rangers is surviving the first half before reinforcements arrive. And even then there’s no guarantee deGrom, Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi remain healthy. The club will rely on young arms and the key is that the Rangers won’t have the benefit of sneaking up on opponents like last year. They will be the hunted instead of the hunter. And the AL West is a tough division with the Astros again projected to be a playoff team and both the Mariners and Angels making moves to strengthen their clubs.
Rangers Win Total Pick: Under 89.5 (-144)
With the 2024 Major League Baseball season set to get underway, there are win totals on the board for every team as well as other MLB futures. Listed above is just a sampling and keep in mind that the season is a marathon not a sprint. A lot can happen over the course of 162 games and six months.
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