When you think of Aaron Judge it’s hard to not also think about power and home runs. So therefore, I guess it’s a good thing there’s a season prop for his home run production. Two years ago Judge had one of the best power seasons in MLB smacking an AL record 62 home runs with a league-best 131 RBIs and 1.111 OPS. That was an exceptional season and one that will never be duplicated by Judge. But as long as he stays healthy there’s more than a good chance he exceeds his projected total of 44.5.
Judge has played more than 112 games just three times in his eight-year career, and boy did he make the most of those additional at-bats and plate appearances. Playing 155 games in 2017 in what was his rookie season, Judge belted an AL high 52 homers while driving in 114. He was limited to 242 games over the next three seasons combined and still managed to hit a home run every 15 at-bats. In 2021 Judge was in the lineup in a more permanent basis and clobbered 39 homers in 148 games. That preceded his monumental 2022 campaign that all but guaranteed him a spot in Cooperstown when he retires.
2024 MLB Betting Lines
2024 Regular Season Home Runs
Over 44.5 ( +114 )
Under 44.5 (-145)
With any season long prop bet the key to hitting the OVER is the player’s health. It’s practically a given that Judge goes over his projected total of 44.5 home runs if he can actually stay on the field. And while it seems like a simple thing, it’s been anything but. The average number of home runs for Judge over 162 games is 50. But he’s never played 162 games before. In his record-setting 2022 campaign Judge played the most games he’s ever played in his career at 157 with 696 plate appearances. He couldn’t even build off his historic season since injuries held him to 106 games. In those limited games and at-bats, Judge was still able to hit 37 home runs. A look at the numbers and you know Judge is the biggest home run threat in MLB. But we also know he’s injury prone and now that he’s in his mid-30s there’s a greater chance he fails to succeed in his mission.
In an attempt to keep Judge healthy and limit the wear and tear on the body while playing defense, the Yankees added some outfield help and the idea is to move Judge to a corner spot and out of center field. One thing that goes unnoticed is Judge’s ability to play defense. He’s an above average outfielder with a strong arm and because of that he’s likely to stay in games instead of being subbed out for defensive reasons. And the new-look offense has some tools with Juan Soto and a healthy Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton. There are scenarios where I see Judge going over the total and some where I see him going below. It all comes down to his health and the club has done everything it can possibly do to make that happen.
Prop Pick: Over 44.5 ( +114 )
2024 Regular Season RBIs
Over 112.5 ( +116 )
Under 112.5 (-137)
For someone who hits as many home runs as Judge does, you might expect him to have more RBIs. In 2017 he drove in 114 runs on 52 homers. In 2022 his 62 homers accounted for 131 RBIs. That tells me a few things. First is that the Yankees weren’t getting men on base. Or perhaps opponents just pitched around Judge in crucial situations. In his 2022 MVP season he led the league with 111 walks. Twice in his eight years Judge had more than the projected total of 112.5 RBIs and both years it took a massive home run output to achieve those numbers.
If we’re betting the OVER on the home run total we should probably bet the OVER on the number of RBIs since they seem to go hand in hand. But I’m not convinced that opposing managers are suddenly going to allow their hurlers to groove fastballs to Judge since he’s the biggest home run threat. Sure Soto can go deep, as can Stanton and Rizzo, who will probably take some RBIs away from Judge.
Prop Pick: Under 112.5 (-137)
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