The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros meet in the American League Championship Series beginning on Friday in Houston. The Red Sox are coming off a surprising win over Tampa Bay to make the ALCS, while the Astros rolled over the White Sox. The Astros have the home field advantage in this best-of-seven series and they are listed as the favorite in ALCS odds. It should be a high scoring series, as the Astros were the highest scoring team in the league this season, while the Red Sox were fifth. Let’s look at the ALCS between the Red Sox and Astros, ALCS odds, ALCS schedule and ALCS picks.
MLB ALCS Betting Odds
Boston Red Sox +140
Houston Astros -160
Season Series
The Astros won five of the seven meetings against the Red Sox this season and outscored Boston by a combined 42-25. Not much went right for Boston in their games against Houston, as none of the games were close. The Red Sox had their struggles against the Houston pitching, especially the big four of Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. The good news for Boston is that those four are now red-hot, as they have a combined .359 average with six home runs, nine extra-base hits and 20 RBIs in the playoffs
Houston Astros
The Astros will be making their fifth straight trip to the ALCS. Houston was the highest scoring team in the league and they averaged 7.8 runs per game in the ALDS. Houston has an excellent lineup that is powerful and deep. Their lineup goes seven deep with Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel and Kyle Tucker.
Chas McCormick and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup.
Houston is managed by the veteran Dusty Baker who will be making his fourth trip to the LCS. He will be looking to make his first trip to the World Series since 2002.
The Houston pitching staff is better than Boston’s but there are concerns, as Lance McCullers left his start in Game 4 against the Rays with tightness in his arm. If he can’t go in this series then Houston’s pitching advantage is somewhat negated. The Astros will be sending left-hander Framber Valdez in Game 1. He was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA this season. Houston has a solid bullpen led by closer Ryan Pressly but the bullpen would be weaker if Cristian Javier or Zack Greinke has to replace McCullers.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are led by manager Alex Cora who was Houston’s bench coach when the Astros won the World Series in 2017. He was part of the sign-stealing scandal and was suspended for the 2020 season. Cora has a 15-4 record in the postseason and he gives them a definite edge against Houston’s Dusty Baker.
The Red Sox win thanks to their offense that scored 829 runs this season. The Boston lineup is almost as deep as Houston’s. They have Kyle Schwarber, Kike Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe and Bobby Dalbec. Christian Vazquez or Kevin Plawecki will do the catching and Christian Arroyo will likely hit ninth.
Boston’s pitching was an issue at times this season and their overall team ERA was 4.26. The Red Sox are likely to send Nathan Eovaldi in Game 1. He was 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA this season and he has a 1.93 ERA in his postseason career. The Red Sox have found a weapon in the bullpen in rookie Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck has also pitched well of late.
American League Championship Series Schedule (Best-of-seven)
Friday, Oct. 15
Red Sox at Astros, Game 1 (FOX, 8 p.m. ET)
Saturday, Oct. 16
Red Sox at Astros, Game 2 (FOX or FS1)
Monday, Oct. 18
Astros at Red Sox, Game 3 (FS1)
Tuesday, Oct. 19
Astros at Red Sox, Game 4 (FS1)
Wednesday, Oct. 20
Astros at Red Sox, Game 5* (FS1)
Friday, Oct. 22
• Red Sox at Astros, Game 6* (FS1)
Saturday, Oct. 23
• Red Sox at Astros, Game 7* (FOX or FS1)
*if necessary
ALCS Picks
There is no doubt that on paper the Astros are the better team but two things make me lean toward the Red Sox. First, the Astros are substantially weaker if McCullers can’t go and there are definite concerns with his arm tightness. Second, I don’t think Dusty Baker is a good manager and he will find a way to lose at least one game on his own. I also can’t deny the Red Sox have the feel of a team that is going to win, even against the odds. I’ll take the Red Sox to win this series at plus money.
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