Saturday’s MLB betting slate comes to a close at Petco Park in beautiful San Diego, CA where a crucial NL West matchup will go down between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres. With both teams likely chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers for division supremacy over the course of this abbreviated 60-game schedule, each and every matchup between the two franchises will be pivotal in their attempt to at the very least qualify for one of the two NL play-in wild card slots. The quest towards leading each respective team to a victory tonight will fall upon the shoulders of Robbie Ray and Dinelson Lamet in a stellar pitching matchup that could see quite a few strikeouts registered; as well as walks. Look for Lamet and the Padres to be installed slight home chalk even though the Snakes handled them a season ago.
First pitch for the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres is scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2020, at 9:10 p.m. ET from Petco Park. The matchup will be shown live on FS1. You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting Odds
Odds Analysis
Zona took 11 of the 19 regular season meetings in 2019 with the under cashing in at a 9-8-2 clip. San Diego did however come out on top five of the nine times it hosted the rivalry with the under cashing in at a 5-4 clip with an average of 7.9 runs scored per game. The D’backs were one of three NL West teams to post a winning record on the road last season in going 41-40 which put $600 worth of profit in MLB bettors’ pockets. San Diego was a poor road team 34-47, -$800, but also finished up nine-games under .500 as a host costing $100 bettors that backed them nearly $1.8K! When going by season win totals, linemakers have Arizona and San Diego pretty much neck-and neck with the former situated at 31.5 wins and the latter 30.5. Surprisingly, the Padres +750 possess shorter odds than the Diamondbacks +900 to win the division though.
Probable Pitchers
When in control, Robbie Ray is one of the premiere pitchers in Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, that isn’t always the case. Though his control was improved a season ago, he still possessed a 4.3 BB/9 ratio. In case you don’t account for the analytics of the game, that’s a below average output. For comparison’s sake, Gerrit Cole’s BB/9 last season was 2.0. Where Ray stacks up to Cole however is in the strikeout department where he’s logged an 11.1 K/9 ratio over the course of his career and tied his career-best mark last season 12.1. Through 16.2 innings pitched against the Friars last year, Ray tallied 23 punch outs but also issued 12 free passes as well as 13 hits 3 HR. He also had major issues at Petco where nine walks saw him surrender 6 ER through 10.2 combined innings.
Dinelson Lamet is almost a carbon copy of his opponent. The righty has nasty stuff evidenced by an elite 11.7 career K/9 ratio, but things spin out of control for him quickly when he can’t find the K-Zone. In just 73 innings pitched after returning from Tommy John surgery, Lamet issued 30 free passes which equated to a poor 3.7 BB/9 ratio. It all added up to a 3-5 record and 4.07 ERA; the best of his young career. One thing he’s got going for him entering his 2020 debut is the fact that he didn’t face Arizona last season. All the Snakes have to rely upon are scouting reports and film. That said, Zona didn’t have issues handling him back in 2017 when they roughed him up for 11 hits 4 HR and 15 runs over two starts.
Player Prop Targets
If Jake Lamb is in the Diamondbacks lineup, you’re going to want to make it a point to look his way from a player props perspective. In four career at-bats versus Lamet, Lamb has three hits with two going for extra bases 1 HR to go along with 5 RBI. One to avoid would be Starling Marte whose 0-for-5 lifetime with 3 Ks. On the Padres side of things, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Will Myers have each logged two home runs against the D-backs fireballer, with the latter 7-for-30 lifetime with 11 walks and 13 strikeouts. Tommy Pham has hit safely in five of his 10 career at-bats versus Ray, but only one went for extra bases.
MLB Pick
I might be in the minority, but I’m very bullish on the D-backs competing in the NL West during this 60-game sprint to the division pennant. Though I’d much rather back Ray in the comforts of Chase Field and believe San Diego possesses the better bullpen arms, I much prefer Zona’s bats and believe they get to Lamet on Saturday night. So much so that I’d even entertain the thought of backing the visitors on the alternate run-line should the offering offer up enough value. I’d like the bet even more should Chris Paddack lead the Padres to the series opening win on Friday night.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 8, Padres 2
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