The Atlanta Braves certainly have the offense to compete for the NL East pennant and live up to online sportsbooks installing them +215 odds on favorites to win the division; but do they have the starting pitching? Left-hander Sean Newcomb will attempt to sway MLB bettors’ perception of the starting staff on Sunday night when he takes to the bump to pitch in the finale of the three-game set against the division rival New York Mets. Getting the starting nod for the home team will be veteran Rick Porcello who will be making his debut in the National League in his first start as a Brave. Only the Miami Marlins have no shot of winning the NL East which finds the Braves, Mets, Phillies and defending World Series champion Nationals all bunched up on the divisional futures odds. That makes tonight’s nationally televised game on ESPN all the more important for both squads should they want to separate themselves from the other.
First pitch for the game between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets is scheduled for Sunday, July 26, 2020, at 7:08 p.m. ET from Citi Field. The matchup will be shown live on ESPN. You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting Odds
Odds Analysis
One of the main reasons why the Braves went on to win the NL East last season was because of the team’s ability to win divisional games. Its 46-30 record tied with the St. Louis Cardinals as the second most dominant divisional record in the National League; bragging rights went to the Los Angeles Dodgers who went 51-25. Eleven of those triumphs came against the Mets with the under cashing in at an 11-5-3 clip. Adding insult to injury was the fact that Atlanta went into Citi Field and logged a 5-4 record with the under also proving to be lucrative 5-3-1. Along with taking care of business within the division, Atlanta also performed well on the road in going 48-35 to win their backers nearly $1100. However, New York defended its turf as well in logging a 48-33 record when playing in front of the hometown faithful. These rivals season win totals are separated by one game with the Braves number to beat checking in at 33.5. With that, it comes with little surprise to see the Mets +275 right in Atlanta’s rearview mirror on the NL East futures odds.
Probable Pitchers
Off a successful stint in the Braves’ bullpen a season ago, Newcomb will attempt to transition back into a starter’s role mostly due to team necessity. With veteran Cole Hamels unable to give it a go due to a bout of triceps tendinitis, the door has been opened for the lefty to get back into the rotation. What he can ultimately do with the opportunity remains to be seen. Through three Spring Training starts, Newcomb logged a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to go along with a solid 22:6 K/BB ratio. The Mets were a sub .500 team against left-handed pitching a season ago, but Newcomb had all sorts of issues with the Mets offense in allowing nine hits 1 HR and 8 ER with a 3:3 K/BB ratio through 6.1 total innings of work. Lifetime he’s 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA and .222 BAA versus New York.
It’s crazy to think three seasons are already in the book since Porcello logged a 22-4 record to win the AL Cy Young Award back in 2016. His overall body of work regressed to the point that Boston decided to let him leave via free agency this past offseason. After inking a one-year $10M contract with the Braves, he figures to get some major burn over the next few months with Noah Syndergaard out of commission and Marcus Stroman just succumbing to the injury bug. Porcello was awful in 2019 allowing 198 hits through 174.1 innings while allowing an average of 10.2 hits and 1.6 home runs per nine innings. While his control was still impeccable, he only sported a 7.4 K/9 ratio. He beat Newcomb and the Braves back in 2018 at Fenway, but Atlanta’s a much better team now than they were then.
Injuries
Along with losing Stroman for an undetermined amount of time, the Mets will also have to deal with the absence of Robert Gsellman after he landed on the injured list due to a bout of triceps tightness. New York’s bullpen was already struggling as it was; now it must find a way to perform without his services for at minimum the next week. If Porcello is unable to eat some innings on Sunday night, the onus will be put smack dab on the pen to help lead the team to victory in the series finale. Dependent how New York’s bullpen was used in the first two games, you might want to entertain the thought of hitting the over on the live betting lines once Porcello departs, or just go blind and hit the 2H Over in hopes that the bullpen is gassed.
MLB Pick
I have not a clue as to which side to back in this matchup. Though bullpen usage in the prior two games could help sway me to one side or the other. Regardless, I’m expecting some runs to dent the scoreboard in the finale. I’m not a fan of either starting pitcher. Newcomb is extremely hittable, so you can bet your bottom dollar Pete Alonso and company are more than ready to step into the box and do some damage. But Porcello will have his hands full as well. He just got waxed by the Yankees last time out, and will now have to deal with the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman. With both squads aces pitching in the first two games, both starting pitchers will have their work cut out for them in keeping the damage to a minimum.
MLB Odds: Braves 8, Mets 5
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