The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies spent much of last summer battling for the lead in the AL East. As the season wore on, the Phillies faltered and the Braves soared, easily taking the division title. On Sunday, these two teams will wrap up the first of many series in 2019 with both hoping for a strong start to the season that they can ride in what will be a difficult division to win.
First pitch for this MLB game between the Braves and Phillies is scheduled for Sunday, March 31, 2019, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Braves won the division last year and got the better of the Phillies in the season series, winning 12 of their 19 meetings, but Philadelphia got off to a good start in their head to head battles on opening day, taking the game 10-4.
The Phillies have always fared well against Julio Teheran so that’s not a surprise, but the Phillies offense really stepped up in a big way despite a pedestrian 1-for-3 from Bryce Harper and an 0-for-3 from J.T. Realmuto. Those were the big offseason acquisitions, but they weren’t the only moves for a Phillies’ team that basically completely overhauled an offense that ranked near the bottom in 2018.
Rhys Hoskins seemed to like hitting with his new-found protection as he went yard and drove in four. Andrew McCutchen and Maikel Franco also circled the bases.
In this lineup, Franco—who drove in three—is batting in the No.8 spot rather than the middle like he was a season ago. The lineup is much deeper and we saw a glimpse of what it can do on Thursday.
As for the Braves, they did score four runs. Matt Joyce, however, drove in two with a pinch hit home run. The starting lineup accounted for just two more runs off the bats of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Nick Markakis.
Atlanta didn’t produce as prolifically with the bats on Thursday, but this is the team that was fifth in the NL in runs scored last year. They may not have added as much to the lineup as Philly, but they also didn’t need to give the production last year. They did, however, add Josh Donaldson who is one of the better hitters in the game when healthy. He looked solid on Thursday. He didn’t get on base, but did draw a walk and scored.
As an offensive comparison, the Phillies surely are off to a better start though the Braves track record from last year keeps them close.
Probable Pitchers
When it comes to experience in this pitching matchup, the Phillies certainly get the advantage with Jake Arrieta getting the start.
The former Cy Young Award winner is a stabilizing force in this rotation. He signed a huge deal last winter and produced a solid season in his first in Philly, going 10-11 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 172.2 innings of work. He gives Gabe Kapler length and is a proven arm. He’s regressed each of the last few seasons, but at 33-years old, there’s still life in that arm. An improved Phillies’ defense should help him see better results in 2019.
Of course, Arrieta was great early last year, going 9-6 with a 3.11 ERA in his first 22 starts. He just fell off a cliff at the end, going 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA in his final nine games. Still, he wasn’t the greatest this spring, giving up three homers and nine runs in 14 innings though he did record 16 strikeouts at the same time.
Last year, Arrieta made just two starts against the Braves, going just 8.2 combined innings and allowing four runs on 11 hits and four walks; not the best numbers.
On the other side of this matchup, the Braves will turn to right-handed hurler Kyle Wright. The 22-year old appeared in just four games for the big club in 2018, all in relief, tossing six innings while allowing six walks and a pair of homers.
Now at age 23, Wright still brings huge upside and some excellent stuff. He just needs to harness it. He had a good spring despite an inflated ERA as he showed better control with four walks to 20 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.
Coming into the year, Wright ranks in the top-40 prospects according to Baseball America. He had 20 solid Double-A starts and pitched to a 2.51 ERA in 28.2 Triple-A innings at Gwinnett.
Live Betting
The Phillies just tanked at the end of last season and a lot of that boils down to experience. Atlanta made a conscious effort to bring in key veterans and among those was closer David Robertson to help stabilize the bullpen.
Philadelphia has some electric arms that showed flashes last year. Seranthony Dominguez, in particular, is an elite reliever who has amazing stuff. He’s now available earlier in games while Robertson has the ninth on lockdown. Between Robertson, Pat Neshek and Juan Nicasio, the Phillies have plenty of veteran leadership combined with elite level arms such as Dominguez, Hector Neris, and Edubray Ramos.
As for the Braves, this is a potential area of weakness. The Braves have a ton of talented arms all over the roster, but they don’t have the proven veterans in the pen beyond Jonny Venters. Still, the quality is there.
Josh Tomlin made the team and will pitch in relief for a time as an innings eater. Arodys Vizcaino is the closer and was good in that role last year. This is an area of potential upgrade for the Braves, but the talent and foundation is good.
MLB Pick
In the end, look for the Braves to salvage this series finale in Philly as Wright keeps the good times rolling out of spring and the bullpen shows it can hold a narrow lead.
The Phillies had a field day offensively in the opener and set a tone for this series earlier, but Arrieta didn’t have a good spring or a good end to last year.
We’ll see if Arrieta can get off to a hot start, but look for him to struggle just enough to allow the Braves to take and sustain the lead.
MLB Score Prediction: Braves 6, Phillies 5
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