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We’re two regular season games into the 2019 season, thanks to the Japan series, and mere days away from every other team reaching opening day. And although Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel are still without homes, the free agent market has mostly been resolved. We’re coming up on when the games count, and we can talk about wins, losses, runs and outs rather than speculating on signings and extrapolating the always volatile spring training results.
With the season nearing its start, we can look closely at the rosters and have a good idea of what things will look like, at least for the first part of the year. The difficult part is projecting what will happen and making strategic bets to cash in on what we know.
Part of that is projecting division, league and World Series winners and with that comes the World Series odds. BookMaker.eu has been keeping the odds all winter, but with spring training well underway we finally have a glimpse on what these teams might look like in 2019.
You can bet on MLB odds and props—including all the World Series odds—at BookMaker.eu.
WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +10500
Atlanta Braves +2900
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +614
Chicago Cubs +1344
Chicago White Sox +27500
Cincinnati Reds +10000
Cleveland Indians +1253
Colorado Rockies +2866
Detroit Tigers +60000
Houston Astros +585
Kansas City Royals +55000
Los Angeles Angels +6300
Los Angeles Dodgers +820
Miami Marlins +100000
Milwaukee Brewers +1731
Minnesota Twins +4350
New York Mets +1957
New York Yankees +574
Oakland Athletics +4500
Philadelphia Phillies +1077
Pittsburgh Pirates +10500
St. Louis Cardinals +1700
San Diego Padres +9500
San Francisco Giants +14500
Seattle Mariners +14000
Tampa Bay Rays +6000
Texas Rangers +23500
Toronto Blue Jays +20000
Washington Nationals +1102
ODDS BREAKDOWN
Where now 20 years removed from the last repeat World Series winner. The Boston Red Sox took the crown in 2018 and are looking for another ring. Are they the team to snap the streak?
It’s certainly a possible. As opening day lingers, the Sox rank with the third best odds in the game, but they’re coming into the year with nearly same team as the one that wrapped up last season sans a few key bullpen arms. Without Craig Kimbrel or Joe Kelly, Ryan Braiser and company will be asked to take on a bigger role. That, in and of itself isn’t a bad thing, but those two getting the save chances is certainly concerning given Alex Cora’s need to use guys like Rick Porcello and Nate Eovaldi out of the pen throughout the playoffs last year even with Kimbrel and Kelly on the roster. He, obviously, cannot do that in the regular season.
Given those issues with the Sox, it makes sense why they’d fall behind the New York Yankees and Houston Astros in the odds. The Yankees have beefed up their bullpen and added several infielders to completely a stacked outfield alignment—at least when healthy. The outfield, however, has some questions going into the year with health. Dellin Betances and others will start the year on the injury list out of the pitching staff, too. The Astros, meanwhile, have seen the starting staff take a hit with players leaving, but still have Justin Verlander—who was just extended two years beyond this one—and Gerrit Cole, who is a pending free agent, at the top of the rotation with a plethora of quality mid and bottom of the rotation options along with a strong bullpen and lineup.
In the American League, the favorites are the teams that were in the playoffs last year. The AL is lopsided between the haves and have-nots. The Yankees, Red Sox and Astros were all in the mix in 2018 as were the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics. All but the Athletics are highly favored to return while experts still undervalue the A’s based on the rotation.
Oakland still has the fifth best odds amongst AL teams although the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays aren’t far behind, all things considered. Tampa Bay, like the A’s are another underrated team. It was a 90-win team last year and introduced the idea of an opener with rousing success. They’ve improved while the Angels still have the best player in baseball, who they just recently locked up for the length of his career and added pitching depth even if they’re still missing a top-of-the-rotation option.
Those seven teams—and the last few are even a reach—are the only ones with even the slimmest of hopes. The other eight AL teams have extremely long odds according to BookMaker and for good reason. The AL is loaded with rebuilding teams, at least two per division.
Moving to the senior circuit, the odds are a bit less divided. The NL is the land of parity. Nearly every team is going into the year with playoff aspirations and getting to October is all you need to have a chance to win the World Series. While the AL has just a couple teams with a real chance to win the Fall Classic, in the NL there are only a handful of teams that don’t have much of a shot to at least compete for a chance in October. The Miami Marlins are still tearing down. The San Diego Padres have the game’s best farm system and did sign Manny Machado, but the pitching staff is still a couple years away. The San Francisco Giants are another heavy longshot as they’re in a period of transition.
Beyond that, however—and the possible expectations of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds who all consider themselves more of contenders than the rest of the industry—the league is wide open.
Of course, along with more parity in the NL, comes a more crowded road to the playoffs—and then the series—for those teams that are in contention. As a result, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best odds at +820. The Philadelphia Phillies are next at +1077 with bettors highly encouraged by their offseason moves though the odds have gotten better in recent weeks as betting activity still favors the AL teams over the Phillies and others in the NL.
It also doesn’t help the odds that the Phillies path to the playoffs in the AL East isn’t clear. There’s plenty of options in that division. The reigning division champion Atlanta Braves have a plethora of young pitching that is a year older and more mature along with the addition of Josh Donaldson. The New York Mets are completely remade with Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and a slew of others added to the bullpen and offense in hopes of taking advantage of a dynamic group of starting pitchers already in house.
The NL Central is similarly deep with talents given even the Cincinnati Reds added in the offseason to be more competitive. Given the depths of the East and Central, it makes sense the Dodgers would be favorites to get to the World Series—again. Of course, the back-to-back NL champion hasn’t nabbed a World Series title in the last two years and is arguably in no better position to do so in 2019 compared to the last two seasons.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
The St Louis Cardinals made their big splash early in the offseason, trading for—and now extending—Paul Goldschmidt. The move has seen been overshadowed by the Harper and Machado sweepstakes, but Goldschmidt could still be the biggest acquisition of the offseason.
The Cardinals currently sit with their odds at +1700. They’re not the biggest longshots, but the team has missed the playoffs the last few seasons. St. Louis’s biggest issues of late, however, has been defense and the lack of a true middle-of-the-order bat. Goldy helps in both respects. Meanwhile, the Cardinals bulked up their rotation with Andrew Miller and have a nice defense up the middle now with Yadier Molina, Kolten Wong and Harrison Bader all well above average with the glove.
Digging a bit deeper, the A’s are at +4500, largely because most feel Oakland cannot replicate last year’s success without better starting pitching. Their failure in Japan helped make the odds even more favorable for those looking for a good value. The relief heavy pitching formula worked in 2018. Can it do so again in 2019? This is largely the same team and that team could make things interesting. They might not be getting enough credit going into 2019, making them an interesting pick. Two games is hardly enough of a sample size to sway how one should feel about this team.
The Minnesota Twins, on the other hand, are the opposition of Oakland. The team struggled in 2018, but they reached the Wild Card in 2017 after selling off pieces at the deadline. The Twins just need some players already in house to improve, most notably Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, although the latter will be delayed due to injury.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The World Series is still a long way away. We’re just now getting to Opening Day and with so many games to be played, opportunity is key. The American League playoff teams look a lot more set compared to a wide-open National League. Baring something major, the Yankees, Astros, and, to a slightly lesser extent, Red Sox look like locks to secure a playoff spot. Not surprisingly, those are the three favorites. New York is the chalkiest pick, though having gone a decade since their last title, they’ll be the most motivated of the three. Injuries, however, have already gotten to several Yankee players which is a bit of a red flag.
The Indians are a bit less chalky and their only real competition in the AL Central is a Twins team that struggled last year. Cleveland is in position to waltz to a playoff berth, but their outfield and bullpen will need overhauls in July to make a deep run in October realistic.
If you’re looking for most likely to pay out, the Yankees or Astros may be the best options.
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