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Every team has now got some regular season games under their respective belts. Although there are still some home openers on the horizon and opening festivities, we’re mostly into the grind of the regular season schedule. While it’s hard to glean too much from a couple games. The weekend did provide some interesting tidbits.
We saw the Orioles get a win against the Yankees in a surprise performance against James Paxton of all pitchers. Paxton should be good for the Bronx Bombers, but his rough first start causes some alarm, as did Chris Sale’s lackluster start to the year on the other side of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry. Injury news around Matt Olson and Corey Knebel impacted some of last year’s surprise teams’ chances to stay in the playoff picture in 2019.
Anything that happens in a small sample size like just a handful of games isn’t likely to make that much of difference in teams’ actual chances of postseason glory, but it could sway the odds a bit and give us a chance to pounce. It’s also nice to see Oakland get back in the win column after a rough trip to Japan. Still, we’re not going to take much out of the Mariners starting the year 4-1 or the Royals capturing wins in their first couple games, but it’s sure fun to have regular season baseball again.
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WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +10500
Atlanta Braves +2900
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +614
Chicago Cubs +1344
Chicago White Sox +27500
Cincinnati Reds +10000
Cleveland Indians +1253
Colorado Rockies +2866
Detroit Tigers +60000
Houston Astros +585
Kansas City Royals +55000
Los Angeles Angels +6300
Los Angeles Dodgers +820
Miami Marlins +100000
Milwaukee Brewers +1731
Minnesota Twins +4350
New York Mets +1957
New York Yankees +574
Oakland Athletics +4500
Philadelphia Phillies +1077
Pittsburgh Pirates +10500
St. Louis Cardinals +1700
San Diego Padres +9500
San Francisco Giants +14500
Seattle Mariners +14000
Tampa Bay Rays +6000
Texas Rangers +23500
Toronto Blue Jays +20000
Washington Nationals +1102
ODDS BREAKDOWN
Let’s start with the super teams in the American League. By all accounts, there are four teams that seem highly likely to reach playoff baseball in the AL, leaving just one open slot. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are locks from the AL East, though one will be a Wild Card team. The Cleveland Indians still have a nice edge in the AL Central although the Minnesota Twins could make it interesting if things go right. And, in the AL West, it’s the Houston Astros.
We’ve seen some reason to question all these teams in the first series of the year. Boston couldn’t win the series against the Mariners and saw their ace struggle in the opener as Chris Sale lasted just three innings, allowing seven runs including three homers. The bullpen is the question for this team and if the rotation can’t go deep that really hurts their chances.
The Yankees took a loss to the Orioles. Although just a game, Baltimore is slated to be epically bad this year. Any loss against them is troublesome as the competition—namely the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays—aren’t likely to lose many to Baltimore. Paxton taking the loss is even more alarming since he’s the big offseason addition to the rotation that is without Luis Severino in the early going.
As for Houston, they lost a four-game series to the Rays. While Tampa Bay should be pretty good and one of a few teams competing for the second Wild Card slot, it’s still not a good image to see one of the favorites start the year 1-3.
In the AL Central, Cleveland lost the series to the Twins, their biggest competition. The Tribe have a clear path to October in baseball’s worst division, but it wasn’t a great start and the team has several holes with the starting pitching being the primary reason they’re still expected to win.
Still, even with the questions, those four are near locks for the postseason. The Twins, Rays, Oakland Athletics and a couple others could battle for the last spot, but anyone other than the big four are hardly likely to win it all.
Moving to the NL, the divisions are much more balanced. Only a small group of teams don’t have much chance. The West really has the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies with little else unless you buy into the San Diego Padres’ crop of young prospects all coming up and contributing ahead of schedule.
The NL East has the Miami Marlins as the cellar dweller though they’re 2-2 so far, better than both the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have gotten off to nice starts. Of course, the Mets did that last year before crashing. The Phillies also had a good start before slumping, but both definitely have a better roster to help them sustain this year.
In the NL Central, the Brewers showed well against the Cardinals with a depleted bullpen, but they’ve got a tough schedule this month and the pen was supposed to be the strength. Really, though there’s been nothing in the first series to put the Chicago Cubs, Cardinals or Brewers ahead in this three-way race.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
There have been some encouraging starts by some of the teams on the fringes of contention based on preseason expectations. The Rays, for one, have started 3-1 despite playing one of the favorites in the Astros. Tampa Bay held its own against Houston even with its ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner, Blake Snell, getting off to a rough start. This is a team that always manages to overachieve so doing so again in 2019 wouldn’t be that big of a surprise.
On the National League side, the St Louis Cardinals have already gotten quite a bit of payoff from the Paul Goldschmidt trade, but it hasn’t really converted into wins, yet. Still, it’s positive to see the first baseman get off to a hot start, particularly after he struggled out of the gate last season in Arizona.
The Cardinals were already a team to watch in the stacked NL Central and they remain as such even with a slow start, particularly with the Milwaukee Brewers now dealing with an injury to Corey Knebel.
In the East, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies won their head-to-head series against the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves respectively, the two teams that were favored to win the division and that actually did win it last year.
In the West, the San Diego Padres are still expected to finish at or near the cellar despite the addition of Manny Machado, but the Padres have gotten off to a good start and it’s encouraging to hear Machado and Eric Hosmer—amongst others—petitioned ownership to start the year with Fernando Tatis Jr. in the majors despite typical team logic indicating to send him down to save a year of service time. Ownership obliged and Tatis certainly looks ready for The Show. The offense could be a lot better this year, but can the pitching hold up?
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We have a bit of regular season data now, but it’s not enough to really sway any preseason notions save the impact of some of the recent injuries. Even with a loss to the Orioles by the Yankees and Sunday’s loss to the Rays by the Astros, dropping them to 1-3, they still remain the best bets to make it to—and win—the World Series. Yes, they’re the chalk picks, but they are for a reason.
It’s far too early to let any early results sway expectations built on years of data and track records, but it is certainly a lot more fun to have run results to discuss than just theoretical ones.
It’s not too early to get a bit concerned about the Yankees and Astros. They’re chalk and still the likeliest to win the World Series, but they’re not without their flaws. And we saw some of those flaws in the first couple of games.
In the end, the NL is still too deep to really know who will emerge from the league, let alone even make it to October baseball. A more top-heavy AL at least gives us some certainty amongst the teams destined for the playoffs which helps when it comes to betting on a team to win it all. That team has to get there after all.
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