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We’re now nearly a month into the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season. A few surprises remain. The Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Seattle Mariners are sitting atop their respective divisions. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies remain major early disappointments.
How long can some of these surprises last? As the season continues and the weather warms up some of these surprises will fade. The Mariners, for instances, have already started to falter. But, we have real, sustained surprises every year and one of these—or one we’ve yet to see—may be sustainable.
As the season continues along, you can bet on all the latest MLB odds and props—including all the World Series odds—anytime at BookMaker.eu.
WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +12000
Atlanta Braves +2850
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +850
Chicago Cubs +2000
Chicago White Sox +36500
Cincinnati Reds +16500
Cleveland Indians +1350
Colorado Rockies +10000
Detroit Tigers +21000
Houston Astros +510
Kansas City Royals +45000
Los Angeles Angels +7000
Los Angeles Dodgers +625
Miami Marlins +120000
Milwaukee Brewers +1600
Minnesota Twins +3500
New York Mets +1550
New York Yankees +725
Oakland Athletics +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +965
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
St. Louis Cardinals +1450
San Diego Padres +6000
San Francisco Giants +24000
Seattle Mariners +3750
Tampa Bay Rays +1300
Texas Rangers +24500
Toronto Blue Jays +50000
Washington Nationals +1275
ODDS BREAKDOWN
The Injured List continues to grow for the Yankees as seemingly all of the team’s regulars have found themselves on the shelf, opening the door for guys like Clint Frazier, Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman, guys that nobody thought were going to be major factors for the Bronx Bombers this year, particularly not here in April.
Despite the plethora of injured players, the Yankees have managed to keep their heads afloat. It certainly helps that the Boston Red Sox are off to a worse start than them. The Tampa Bay Rays are doing their best to take advantage of the Yankees’ and Sox’s woes. The Rays’ odds have climbs substantially, but Tampa Bay still remains a tough bet with Boston and New York having more than five months to make up the ground.
Boston’s issues, however, are a bit more concerning than the Yankees. New York’s can be traced back—primarily—to their injuries. Most aren’t that serious. Once they start getting their stars back in the lineup and on the mound, they can make a serious late season move. They just need to stay in the conversation until then. They’ve done that. They’re a .500 club with the second best run differential in the AL. They also play in a division with two, struggling, rebuilding teams. That gives them a chance to rake up some easy wins.
The rest of the AL is starting to come into focus. The Mariners are sliding in the West while the Houston Astros had a huge week and seem poised to make a major run. In the Central, the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians are tied. The Tribe are positioned to get a bit better with Francisco Lindor back to help the offense.
In the senior circuit, only five teams in the NL are under-.500 and one, the Chicago Cubs, are not expected to stay there. There are a few surprises, but the league is well balanced save for the NL West. That hurts the odds for any team in the NL East or NL Central. It’s much easier to pick the teams in the AL likely to make the playoffs. Getting to the postseason is a crucial step to winning the World Series and one that doesn’t have as clear of a path for NL teams compared to AL ones.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
With the Mariners falling back to earth and losing all six of their games against above-.500 clubs, Seattle’s luster is starting to wear off. In their place, the Rays remain a great pick, but the odds no longer show them as that much of a longshot.
Instead, the Minnesota Twins may be the best longshot bet in the AL. The Twins have quietly been one of the better offenses in the AL and have shown enough on the mound to make them a threat to topple the Indians in the AL Central, particularly with their offensive woes.
On the NL side, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have exceeded expectations in the NL West, but they don’t seem to have much staying power. The Pirates also don’t seem long for the top of the NL Central. They have a good rotation and solid bullpen, but the offense has only generated 66 runs in their first 18 games. That’s hard to sustain and still win, even with an underrated pitching staff.
The Braves are still the most intriguing longshot. Atlanta is one of four contenders in the AL East and despite winning the division last year, they’ve got the longest odds of the four teams. All four could beat up on each other down the stretch, making the gap from first to fourth very small. With that, any team out of the NL East—save the Miami Marlins—could win the division and parlay that into more. Why not the Braves? They have a great offense and a ton of pitching talent in their system. They just need to find the right combinations. Their plethora of pitching prospects also gives them an opportunity to fix any issues at the trade deadline with as much trading collateral as anyone.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Astros’ winning streak may have come to an end this weekend, but Houston’s starting to show how good the team can be. Their run differential still ranks fourth in the American League largely due to a slow offensive start, but Jose Altuve has gotten red hot and shown a ton of power with eight home runs and 16 RBIs.
Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and George Springer have all put up impressive early numbers, too. The offense is picking up and the starting pitching has shown to be plenty strong with Collin McHugh, Wade Miley, and Brad Peacock admirably stepping into the rotation. Meanwhile, Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly have been nearly unhittable at the end of games. The pitching has looked great. This is a complete team that showed us over the last couple weeks just how good it can be.
Given the depth of the Houston roster, the Astros remain an excellent pick—as chalky as they are—particularly coming out of an AL where the other top teams coming into the season have struggled with injuries or ineffectiveness, or both.
Out of the National League, the Pirates have been the biggest surprise, but the Dodgers remain the best bet.
Los Angeles maintains the best run differential of the league and have made the Fall Classic in back-to-back seasons. They’re just as good as they’ve been the last two years and could certainly get to the World Series for the third straight year. Eventually they have to win it.
The rest of the NL competitors are all good, but the Dodgers have the clearest path to the playoffs and that’s the first requirement to win it all.
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