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With the 2019 MLB calendar about to flip to May, we still have a few big surprises. While the Boston Red Sox are starting to play better, the defending World Series champions are still well below-.500. With the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs climbing back to the .500 mark, it leaves the Sox as the team with the worst record amongst those that made the playoffs last year.
Meanwhile, their biggest competition in the AL East continues to find ways to win despite a ridiculously long list of players on the IL. And while Boston remains the biggest surprise on the downside, we have teams like the Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks, doing far better here in the early going than most prognosticators thought.
Of course it’s still very early in the season, but we have some interesting trends and storylines to watch as the season continues. In the meantime, you can bet on all the latest MLB odds and props—including all the World Series odds—anytime at BookMaker.eu.
WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +12000
Atlanta Braves +2850
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +850
Chicago Cubs +2000
Chicago White Sox +36500
Cincinnati Reds +16500
Cleveland Indians +1350
Colorado Rockies +10000
Detroit Tigers +21000
Houston Astros +510
Kansas City Royals +45000
Los Angeles Angels +7000
Los Angeles Dodgers +625
Miami Marlins +120000
Milwaukee Brewers +1600
Minnesota Twins +3500
New York Mets +1550
New York Yankees +725
Oakland Athletics +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +965
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
St. Louis Cardinals +1450
San Diego Padres +6000
San Francisco Giants +24000
Seattle Mariners +3750
Tampa Bay Rays +1300
Texas Rangers +24500
Toronto Blue Jays +50000
Washington Nationals +1275
ODDS BREAKDOWN
The National League is as balanced as it’s been in a long time. The parity is amazing and nearly every teams save the San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins, and maybe the Cincinnati Reds seem to have a legitimate chance at reaching October.
Given the parity, it’s harder to feel confident a team will even make it to postseason baseball, let alone get to and win the Fall Classic. The NL East and NL Central, specifically, are deep. The West has a bit more breathing room and the Los Angeles Dodgers continue to steal the show in the senior circuit. They have the NL’s best record and best run differential.
This, after all, is a team that made the World Series in back-to-back seasons. They look like they can do it again—but can they finally win it all?
In the AL, the Houston Astros are looking as good as anyone. They’re the only team that looks complete without any glaring holes, but the New York Yankees are somehow standing a float despite really more injuries than any team should have to contend. Now, the Yankees are seeing their fill-ins needing fill-ins as Clint Frazier was carrying this team and is amongst those on the IL now.
While Boston is playing better, they still have a long ways to go—particularly on the pitching end—to get back to where they were last year. The Minnesota Twins are also hindered by pitching, but they’re in an early battle with the Cleveland Indians and have a very good offense. Jose Berrios is a nice top of the rotation arm, but the rest of the rotation needs to step up before the Twins can be seen as much more than just a threat to the Tribe.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
Coming into the season, the five playoffs teams from the AL in 2018 looked like the teams to beat again in 2019 save maybe the Oakland Athletics.
Given the A’s found success despite a huge question mark of a starting rotation, it seemed reasonable to expect regression, leaving the second wild card as the lone way into the postseason—on paper—for any team. Teams like the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays entered the conversation, but few others were given a shot.
The Seattle Mariners surprised us and came out red hot. The team has regressed a bit, but is holding on a lot longer than some expected. With some recent regression, they’re no longer the hot bet in the AL, but their offense could be for real. Obviously, Dan Vogelbach, Tim Beckham and Domingo Santana aren’t going to keep up their pace, but this team has proven Major Leaguers at most positions.
The pitching is the issue for Seattle, but King Felix has seemed to have made an adjustment to his lesser stuff. Marco Gonzales is providing consistency with a 5-0 start and the rest of the rotation is at least keeping the team in the game. The pen, meanwhile, doesn’t have great names, but has produced.
In the junior circuit, the best longshot bets could come out of the NL West. The East and Central are loaded with good teams that will beat up on each other, opening the door of a possible NL West wildcard. And, as we all know, you need a way to the postseason before you can win it all.
The San Diego Padres have been surprisingly good, and boast a ton of young talent that could help offer reinforcements, but their run differential is in the negatives. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a much better run differential at +21.
The team is rolling right now. Admittedly, it did the same last year before hitting a wall, but Christian Walker is taking full advantage of his opportunity. He won’t end the year with a 1.007 OPS, but if he can prove to be a league average bat and if Adam Jones, David Peralta, and Eduardo Escobar can carry the offense enough, this team can pitch, making them one to watch.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Right now, the Astros are still the best team in the American League despite the standings. The bullpen is deep and the rotation—which was the question coming into the season—has looked strong.
Houston is loaded with talent on offense, too. Five players have double digit RBIs and there’s some good speed up and down the order along with power, meaning this team is one that can score runs in multiple ways. With Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Michael Brantley, it’s a difficult maze for any opposing pitcher given the number of quality at bats this lineup can produce on any given day.
This is a really deep roster and the only one in the AL getting positive answers to all the questions here in the early going. New York is dangerous, too, but they’re dependent on getting players back from the IL. The subs and fill-ins have been doing well keeping the team afloat, but it’s hard to see that sustaining without getting some help.
For a bit of a better payout, the Rays may be the best pick of the bunch. This division was supposed to be a battle between the Yankees and Red Sox and may still be, but both New York and Boston have had a ton of issues here early and Tampa Bay has done everything it can to take advantage. This team always out produces expectations, making it a good longer-shot choice.
In the NL side, the Dodgers are still the cream of the crop. There’s been some ups-and-downs, but they’re getting their rotation healthy. Walker Buehler will adjust. The offense will rake. And Cody Bellinger is a superstar now. Yes, this team got to the World Series in back-to-back seasons and lost, but doesn’t that just mean they’re due to finally win if they can get back again?
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