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We’re no longer in the first month of the season and while it’s still early, it’s starting to get a bit too late to blame poor performance on small sample sizes. Teams like the Boston Red Sox are starting to bounce back. The Chicago Cubs have already gotten back in the mix in their division. Things are even out and the contenders and pretenders are starting to sort themselves out.
With a few exceptions, things are starting to normalize in Major League Baseball back towards what we expected to see at the beginning of the season. There are still a few surprises to keep an eye on, however. There are always a few teams that manage to surprise every year—one way or the other—and we’ll have to watch and see if any of these early surprises become season long stories. Be sure to bet on all the latest MLB odds and props anytime at BookMaker.eu.
WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +12000
Atlanta Braves +2850
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +850
Chicago Cubs +2000
Chicago White Sox +36500
Cincinnati Reds +16500
Cleveland Indians +1350
Colorado Rockies +10000
Detroit Tigers +21000
Houston Astros +510
Kansas City Royals +45000
Los Angeles Angels +7000
Los Angeles Dodgers +625
Miami Marlins +120000
Milwaukee Brewers +1600
Minnesota Twins +3500
New York Mets +1550
New York Yankees +725
Oakland Athletics +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +965
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
St. Louis Cardinals +1450
San Diego Padres +6000
San Francisco Giants +24000
Seattle Mariners +3750
Tampa Bay Rays +1300
Texas Rangers +24500
Toronto Blue Jays +50000
Washington Nationals +1275
ODDS BREAKDOWN
Save for the Tampa Bay Rays holding on atop the AL East and some serious concerns about the Cleveland Indians in the Central, the rest of the American League has more or less gotten in line with preseason expectations.
After working their way to .500, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in fourth in the AL East where they’re likely to reside the rest of the way, ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in the cellar. In the Central, the Minnesota Twins are currently a couple games ahead of the Tribe. The Twins were a preseason sleeper pick for the division, but they’re a lot less of a longshot now given how well the offense is performing and the concerns coming out of Cleveland. The Indians now have Corey Kluber on the shelf alongside Mike Clevinger, leaving them short in the rotation, the area that this team was supposedly strongest.
With the Indians falling, that opens the door for the Twins to reach the postseason and, as we know, getting to October is step one to winning the World Series. These two teams are heading in opposite directions in the odds.
In the AL West, the Houston Astros have recaptured the top spot and are likely to stay there. The Seattle Mariners have really slumped recently with the pitching giving out and the amazing offensive start beginning to slow.
Houston seemingly has the clearest road to October of any team in the AL and thus are one of a couple chalky picks to win it all, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL.
The Astros really do have the most complete team in the AL at the moment, but if the New York Yankees can keep afloat, they have a ton of reinforcements on the way.
In the senior circuit, the Dodgers continue to be the heavy favorites. The NL is a league of parity, but the NL West is an exception. While the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have exceeded expectation to date, they are both doing so with a lot of surprise performances, meaning both teams are likely to regress.
In the other two divisions, things are very tight. The Chicago Cubs are playing excellent ball right now in the NL Central, but the St. Louis Cardinals, and even the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are strong clubs. The NL East is four-deep in contenders as well, even with the struggles of the Washington Nationals out of the gate. The Philadelphia Phillies seem like the best team in the division right now and have the best odds, but it’s a long season ahead and it’s unlikely more than one of the top four will fall out of contention before we get deep in the year.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
Can we still call the Minnesota Twins a longshot? Compared to the Astros or Dodgers or even the Yankees and Phillies, they are, but the Twins currently have the best record in baseball.
It’s hard to believe considering the team finished last year six games below-.500, but this is also a team that’s been very up-and-down season to season over the last several years. They were a wildcard club in 2017 after selling off some at the deadline.
The 2019 version of the Twinkies are getting plenty of offense. Marwin Gonzalez is the only one not performing and he’s got a track record to buy into so even if some players regress, there’s room for growth.
Speaking of growth, Byron Buxton has bounced back from a rough 2018 and Miguel Sano should be back in the fold soon. On top of that, Eddie Rosario has grown from what was already a monster 2018. He’s batting just .222, but has hit 11 home runs. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco, Jonathan Schoop, and Max Kepler have taken major strides.
This team can score. The question moving forward is the pitching. The bullpen looks good. Blake Parker has proven to be a good closer and names like Taylor Rogers, Ryne Harper, Trevor May and Trevor Hildenberger aren’t the sexiest, but they’re getting the job done.
In the rotation, Jose Berrios seems to have taken his game to the next level, going 5-1 with a 2.91 in this first seven games. Jake Ordorizzi looks like the guy that showed great promise in Tampa Bay a few years ago. Martin Perez is also pitching to his potential more than his history. There may be enough here, particularly with a strategic midseason move.
If the Twins are getting a bit too chalky to count as a longshot now, you can still try buying into the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Despite a 20-13 record, the team is still largely being written off. They don’t have as clear a path to a division title as the Twins who have one team—littered with injuries—competing with them.
The D-Backs, however, has shown a balance of offense and defense. The pitching should hold, but can the offense?
The team has a +31 run differential, behind only the Cubs and Dodgers in the NL. That’s impressive. The bullpen is good. Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly have looked good. Zack Godley is the only starter not performing.
At the plate, the question is: can guys like Christian Walker and Jarrod Dyson sustain this high level of success. Walker is a 28-year old journey man for a reason, but looks like an All-Star with a .992 OPS and 20 extra base hits. Is that sustainable? History says no, but he could have found something. As for Dyson, the speed is real. We know that, but is the .309 average and .349 OBP be maintained? If you take those two out of the picture, the offense comes down to David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar and Adam Jones. All three have their own questions, but seem much more stable than Walker or Dyson.
Backing the D-Backs certainly is a longshot, but they’ve shown when the offense rolls, this team is good. It’s just a matter if buying into some of the early season surprises from Walker and Dyson.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The teams with the fewest number of questions are always the safest bets. Given that, it’s no wonder why the Astros and Dodgers are the safest bets. At the moment, they seem like the most likely pair to reach the World Series, setting up a 2017 rematch.
That said, there is still a ton of baseball to be played and things can change in an instant. For now, take the Astros and Dodgers if you’re looking for the teams most likely to pay out.
Other teams worth watching at the moment are the Twins as their odds continue to improve and the Cubs who seems poised to jump to the top of the NL Central given their recent play.
The Braves are another interesting team to watch. The Phillies have the better record in the NL East, but the Braves are neck-and-neck in run differential and have a deep lineup and crop of talented young arms. Atlanta though needs relief help, but that’s something that’s plentiful at the deadline.
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