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It’s mid-May and Memorial Day is fast approaching, the first time in the season where the standings may actually start to mean something. The MLB season is a marathon. It’s a game of ups-and-downs and even the best teams have slumps. Even the worst teams in the history of the sport still managed to win 40 times a year. The Baltimore Orioles will beat the New York Yankees. It’s already happened. Still, we’re getting deep enough into the year where those kind of anomalies sway the stats and records less-and-less.
It’s no wonder that the standings are slowly starting to reflect the preseason expectations though there are a few exceptions that stick out and the longer those exceptions last, the more likely they are to stick. The Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins are two of the biggest. As things continue to shake out, be sure to bet on all the latest MLB odds and props anytime at BookMaker.eu.
WORLD SERIES ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks +12000
Atlanta Braves +2850
Baltimore Orioles +100000
Boston Red Sox +850
Chicago Cubs +2000
Chicago White Sox +36500
Cincinnati Reds +16500
Cleveland Indians +1350
Colorado Rockies +10000
Detroit Tigers +21000
Houston Astros +510
Kansas City Royals +45000
Los Angeles Angels +7000
Los Angeles Dodgers +625
Miami Marlins +120000
Milwaukee Brewers +1600
Minnesota Twins +3500
New York Mets +1550
New York Yankees +725
Oakland Athletics +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +965
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000
St. Louis Cardinals +1450
San Diego Padres +6000
San Francisco Giants +24000
Seattle Mariners +3750
Tampa Bay Rays +1300
Texas Rangers +24500
Toronto Blue Jays +50000
Washington Nationals +1275
ODDS BREAKDOWN
The Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers all sit atop their respective divisions in the National League and they’re—understandably—the favorites on the senior circuit.
The Phillies added the most big names this offseason. The Dodgers have been to the World Series now in back-to-back seasons. And the Cubs, well, they’re only a couple years removed from being a likely dynasty with their crop of young talent.
The Cubs do have some competition in the central, though Chicago has blown everyone away the last couple weeks. Still, the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals are going to hang around. The NL East should be just as deep, but it hasn’t found quite as much success in the first couple months.
On the AL side of things, the Boston Red Sox are finally playing better baseball and have climbed back over-.500 as they try to repeat. It’ll be an uphill battle, however, with the New York Yankees somehow staying afloat through a myriad of injuries. They’re starting to get key players back and should only improve. The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, have already proven this team is for real.
Really, it’s quite possible both Wild Card teams come out of the AL East. The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros look like they could run away with their respective divisions and the Cleveland Indians—the preseason favorites in the AL Central—are the only team in either division seemingly likely to even fishing above-.500.
INTERESTING LONGSHOTS
The Twins have likely graduated from this category after they’ve put together the best record in the AL accompanied by the second best run differential.
The AL Central is no longer the Indians’ division to lose. With the Tribe dealing with offensive issues and some significant pitching injuries—most recently Corey Kluber—the Twins have overtaken the front-runner spot in the division. They’ve got a clear path to October with no other challenges in the central and getting there is the first step to winning it all.
With the Twins becoming chalkier and chalkier by the day, the next best longshot might be the Atlanta Braves.
Most of the NL East has struggled to live up to lofty expectations. The Phillies are playing well and seem positioned to run away with the division while the New York Mets have fallen under-.500 and the Washington Nationals look more like sellers than buyers right now though the deadline is still admittedly a long-ways away.
That leaves the Atlanta Braves as the Phillies’ primary competition. The Braves won the division last year and are, arguably, better on paper with the addition of Josh Donaldson. This team has the offense, it’s the pitching that’s not quite there, but Mike Foltynewicz is finally healthy and both Mike Soroka and Max Fried look like legitimate rotation pieces.
That really leaves the pen, the easiest thing to fix midseason. Alex Anthopoulos, admittedly, didn’t address the issue last deadline or in the offseason, but they have the pieces to make a big deal and there’s always a chance for a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, though by this point, there’s no telling how that would go.
Washington is another interesting option. Their odds are getting longer and longer as they fall further and further under-.500, but the team has the pieces. Perhaps a change of manager will shake things up. When you have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin, you’re always a threat in a short series.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Really, the Astros and the Dodgers are the only two teams that look like legitimate World Series contenders at this point in the season. Houston’s got a six-game lead in the division now after a 8-2 run. Their +69 run differential is the best in baseball and its starting to look too easy. There are some questions in the rotation with Collin McHugh heading back to the pen, but the pen—which was already best in the game—just got one of its most effective relievers from last year back.
As for L.A., the Diamondbacks and Padres have had surprising starts to the year, but neither one is really all that sustainable. Arizona is getting major out-of-the-blue performances while the Padres winning despite an unsustainable negative run-differential. L.A.’s path to October is clear and the offense is stacked. Their rotation is deep. The pen can be improved midseason, too, as the Dodgers are loaded with trade bait. After making it to the Fall Classic in back-to-back seasons, the team should be motivated to make a major midseason move to put them over the top.
Beyond those two teams, the rest of the options to win it all are more of a toss-up. The Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals and Yankees have all looked the part at times, but it’s hard to put too much faith in any of them.
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