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The Home Run is one of the most exciting plays in baseball and with the game skewing towards the three true outcomes: homer, walk and strikeout, it’s being more prevalent in today’s game. We have more prolific longball hitters today than in nearly any other era of the game, leaving the question of who will lead the league in home runs a difficult one to answer. There are many options.
You can bet on MLB odds and props — including the player to hit the most home runs in 2019 — at BookMaker.eu.
ODDS TO HIT MOST HOME RUN IN 2019
Giancarlo Stanton +700
Aaron Judge +800
JD Martinez +1000
Khris Davis +1000
Joey Gallo +1200
Mike Trout +1500
Bryce Harper +2000
Rhys Hoskins +2000
Nolan Arenado +2500
Matt Olson +3000
Nelson Cruz +4000
Kris Bryant +5500
Manny Machado +5500
Anthony Rizzo +6000
Edwin Encarnacion +6000
Francisco Lindor +6000
Alex Bregman +6500
Jesus Aguilar +6500
Cody Bellinger +7000
Eugenio Suarez +7000
Gary Sanchez +7000
Jose Ramirez +7000
Juan Soto +7000
Justin Upton +7000
Kyle Schwarber +7000
Mike Moustakas +7000
Mookie Betts +7000
Ronald Acuna Jr. +7000
Trevor Story +7000
Hunter Renfroe +7500
ODDS BREAKDOWN
Giancarlo Stanton tops the odds at +700 to lead the majors in homers. He has led his league in long balls on two occasions, but it’s going to take in the upper-40s, or more, to top baseball in 2019 and he’s only hit more than the 38 he hit last year once.
Stanton has power, but he’s had problems playing a full set of games until the last couple years. If he plays the full season, he’s going to get his homers, but others may be able to top him. There are a ton of interesting options, including Mike Trout who at +1500 sit at sixth according to the odds.
Trout can do it all. He’s such a good all-around player that people forget he’s a great power hitter as well. He hit one more than Stanton last year in 18 fewer games and has just as many 40-homer seasons as the prolific Yankee, one.
Other interesting odds have Bryce Harper and teammate Rhys Hoskins even at +2000. In terms of the true home-run hitters, Joey Gallo and Khris Davis are chalky picks now.
Really, the key to identifying who will hit the most home runs is figuring out who will get the most chances. At bats and games played are, obviously, important, but Harper stands to get a bump by playing in a more hitter friendly park. Hoskins gets a bump by having betting lineup protection than he did last year when the Phillies were amongst the worst offensive teams last year.
Gallo has the pop, but he’s an all-or-nothing hitter and pitchers can get him out. He’s also on a losing team and his chances to get good pitches to hit may be limited.
SURPRISE CONTENDERS
After Giancarlo Stanton led the way in home runs in 2017, coming close to 60 with the Marlins, he—and then-new Yankee teammate Aaron Judge were amongst the favorites to top the list in 2018. Ultimate 2018 home run champion came from a bit off the board with Khris Davis hitting 48 to top both leagues.
Beyond Davis, Joey Gallo was third and some true surprises like Jesus Aguilar and Max Muncy finished in the top-15. None of those players would be surprises here in 2019 though there are a few players in the bottom of the top-30 odds that have a legitimate shot at paying out big money.
Ronald Acuna Jr, Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez are among them. Acuna had 26 bombs in an abbreviated season. He showed a ton of potential and will certainly grow as a player. He could see a lot more power. Betts also missed some time and still had a big power year. Ramirez may be the most interesting as he was tied with Mike Trout for fourth with 39 home runs, yet he’s got much longer odds than the Angels’ outfielder and several other players.
Of those not in the top-30 in odds, Miguel Andujar and Paul Goldschmidt make interesting longer shot plays. Andujar belted 27 as a rookie. Playing time may be a factor for him given a deep Yankee infield and defensive inefficiencies, but he’s got immense power and room for growth. As for Goldschmidt, he’s got some protection in the St. Louis lineup with Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter. He also hit 33 last year despite having a terrible start to the year. There’s more power in there than we’ve seen so far. We saw his now Cardinal teammate, Carpenter, explode for a monster power season in 2018. He could do the same in 2019.
There are also some rookies that could surprise like Muncy. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a candidate depending on when he makes his debut. A recent oblique injury does make him more questionable. The Mets’ Peter Alonso is another option, but playing time is a consideration, as it is for most prospects.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Yankees certainly have a lot of power. Stanton and Judge are monsters and will help each other getting more pitches to hit due to lineup protection, but this is a wide field of talented sluggers and the chalk isn’t always the best choice.
Judge and Stanton will both hit their share of homers, but the Yankees have a deep roster and can afford to give both time off here and there with Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner also sharing the outfield. Of course, the team has plenty of options at DH as well.
Perhaps the more interesting one-two punch of teammates is in Philadelphia. Harper’s venture to a hitter friendly park for the Phillies could allow him to blossom. Plus, he’s got some good protection in Rhys Hoskins who will also benefit from the slugging outfielder’s presence. Hoskins also no longer must play outfield and moves back to his better defensive position at first. The added comfortability should only help him at the dish.
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