The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a crucial three-game series in Milwaukee on Wednesday as the Cubs look to create some distance in the NL Central and the Brew Crew do their best to stay in the race as regular season schedule hits the stretch run. Milwaukee will put its best foot forward in this game, sending Jhoulys Chacin to the mound against the Cubs’ Jose Quintana who has pitched very well against the Brewers in four previous starts this season.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Brewers is scheduled for Wednesday, September 5, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on WGN.
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers have fallen to third in the NL Central behind both the Cubs and the Cardinals as they’ve gone 13-14 since the beginning of August and haven’t been much more than a .500 club since the start of the second half.
Milwaukee has also struggled in general against the Cubs, going 4-9 against the division leaders as the Cubs have outscored them by 17 runs in those 13 games.
Fortunately for the Brewers, this series will be played at home where Milwaukee boasts a .606 winning percentage and where they won their last series against the Cubs. The Brew Crew are merely a .500 club outside of Miller Park.
As for the Cubs, they’re looking like the most complete team in the NL and the odds-on favorites to make it to the World Series from the senior circuit.
The Chicago offense is deep with talent and the pitching has been throwing the ball better of late as well.
Since the start of July, the Cubs are 34-20 and are 9-2 in their last 11 games. They’re just sixth in baseball in runs scored, but that puts them first in the NL, having plated 40 more runs than the Brewers.
On the mound and in the field, they rank up amongst the best in the NL as well.
Probable Pitchers
Both starting pitchers, Quintana and Chacin, having been pitching well of late. The former comes into this game having thrown six innings of one-run ball against the Phillies while the latter is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last five starts.
As for Quintana, he hasn’t had the best year overall. He regressed last year and has seemingly regressed a bit further in 2018 with a 11-9 record and 4.21 ERA. The Cubs though are still a solid 15-11 when he makes the start and he’s had three straight starts allowing two or fewer runs, though he’s only thrown 16 total innings in those three starts. He’s not been prone to going deep in games so the pen is likely to have to go at least three innings after him.
There are definite areas of concern with Quintana on the bump. He’s got a high walk rate and high home run rate, leading to a FIP higher than his ERA. By that measure, he’s been helped by the Cubs’ defense behind him.
While the Brewers certainly have the power to hit one or two out against Quintana, the good news for the Cubs’ faithful is the southpaw’s success against the Brew Crew this season. In four games against Milwaukee this year, the lefty is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA with a .181 batting average against.
While the head-to-head numbers provide reason for optimism for the Cubs, the Brewers will be sending—arguably—their best pitcher to the mound to counter Quintana as Jhoulys Chacin is scheduled to make the start.
The veteran righty has more than lived up to expectations when he was signed. In the last month, he’s been exceptionally good, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 2.01 ERA over five outings.
Overall, the 30-year old is 14-5 in 29 starts, pitching to a 3.53 ERA in 163.1 innings of work. He’s got a 1.206 WHIP, lower than that of Quintana and has been a bit better with the free passes, and noticeably better with the home run ball. In fact, he’s only allowed 14 homers, less than half a homer per start.
The Brewers are 20-9 in his 29 starts and since the start of July, they’re 8-3 when he gets the ball.
Live Betting
Offensively, the Cubs are the better—or at least more consistent—team. Milwaukee has had its fair share of shutouts on the year. While the lineup is stacked with talent, they’ve been quieted by good pitching.
Still, the additions of Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop and Curtis Granderson help add pinch hitting options and other choices for Craig Counsell who has plenty of moving parts in much the same way Joe Maddon does. The latter, however, is much more experienced juggling such a roster.
Moustakas has been very good and Schoop is starting to hit better after a rough transition following his trade from the Orioles. Granderson will be hard pressed to find playing time outside of as a pinch hitter. Still, that’s one more option to come to the plate.
For the Cubs, they’ve got Kris Bryant and Addison Russell back to an infield that added Daniel Muprhy. Murphy can play second, pushing MVP candidate Javier Baez and his 30 homers and 100 RBIs to short and Russell to the bench. Baez and second and Russell at short is the better defensive arrangement, however, and we’re likely to see that late in the game if the Cubs can grab the lead.
The outfield is also stacked, though Jason Heyward’s elite defense is now on the DL.
On the mound in relief of the starters, the Cubs have a bullpen that’s still missing closer Brandon Morrow. Without him, there are still several late game options. Pedro Strop has filled in well as closer and Justin Wilson, Carl Edwards Jr. and Steve Cishek give protection.
For the Brewers, the bullpen has been the team’s biggest strength most of the year, but that strength has faltered a bit the last month. It’s no coincidence that the second half hasn’t been as strong for the Brewers overall given the issues in relief.
Corey Knebel has not only lost his closer’s role, he’s become a non-factor in this pen, but Josh Hader hasn’t been as dominant as he was. The additions of Joakim Soria and Xavier Cedeno could prove crucial in deepening this bullpen which still has a number of filthy arms.
MLB Pick
Quintana has pitched well against the Brewers this season and the Cubs are clearly the deeper team overall, but the Brewers have made significant moves over the last month to stay in the race. It’ll be a tough game—and series—but look for the hometown Brewers to steal the finale behind Chacin.
Chacin has pitched well over the last month and should continue to do so. Look for him to go six strong against the Cubs before turning the ball over to a strong, and deep, bullpen to close it out.
Of course, Quintana is pitching well now, too, and should give a quality start as well. Look for a lower scoring game on Wednesday with both pens doing their jobs to hold the other team down once the starters or through.
In the end, give it to the hometown team, in front of the hometown fans, to pull out a narrow victory in what should be a very good game.
MLB Odds: Brewers 4, Cubs 3
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