The Little Leagues are the life blood of baseball in America, feeding into the High School and College ranks and, eventually, into Major League Baseball. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will face each other in the MLB Little League Classic on Sunday night, broadcast nationally on ESPN. As Little League alum Todd Frazier will lead the Mets into a series finale showdown against a contending Phillies team full of excellent young players.
First pitch of the game between the Mets and Phillies is scheduled for Sunday, August 19, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at BB&T Ballpark in Williamsport, Pa. The matchup will be televised on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Phillies won 66 games last year. They tied that mark on Wednesday with their 66th win and are well on their way to a far superior season as they continue to fight the Braves atop the NL East.
Philadelphia’s abrupt turnaround can easily be juxtaposed against the struggles of the Mets. A better team last year, New York has won 15 fewer games than their rivals down in Philly.
There are, of course, a litany of reasons that the Phillies have been the far superior team this season. They score more runs, defend better and prevent runs at a much better clip. Of course some of that is in the rotation and we’ll get to the pitching probables shortly, but perhaps the most glaring difference between these teams is at the end of the game.
Even with Jeurys Familia—who is now in Oakland—for most of the season, the Mets have a worse bullpen ERA than every team other than Colorado, Miami and Kansas City. With a 4.89 ERA from the unit, New York’s ERA is well over a run higher than the Phillies’ that sits at 3.76.
Yes, Seranthony Dominquez has struggled some lately, but he’s still got an electric arm, as does Victor Arano and Adam Morgan. Meanwhile, Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter offer different looks and both come as a veteran presence that can help guide this otherwise young pen through some struggles.
For the Mets, Familia is gone and that leaves failed-starters-turned-relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman as the primary arms late in the game.
Probable Pitchers
The Mets’ starting rotation is the one area of strength for the team, at least at the top, but it’s not Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard—or even Zack Wheeler—slated to make the start on Sunday. Instead, it’s Jason Vargas.
Vargas is coming off a strong start, his first of the season. He held the Orioles to two runs over six innings, but tossing a quality start against a team like Baltimore is hardly a great accomplishment. With the competition getting better in Sunday’s game, look for Vargas to fold.
After all, the 35-year old southpaw has looked like his best days are behind him this year. He’s suffered injuries leading to just 13 appearances. He’s 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 53.1 innings. Of course, with such a small sample size, the numbers can be misleading, but his 6.14 FIP show luck isn’t the problem, his pitching has been bad.
Vargas has already allowed 13 homers this season and the Mets are just 2-11 when he takes the ball. He’s yet to face the Phillies this year, but against anyone other than the Orioles. He’s been absolutely dreadful.
Getting the privilege of toeing the rubber trying to outduel Vargas is one of the junior members of the Phillies’ rotation: Nick Pivetta.
The 25-year old right-hander has a 4.37 ERA and 96 ERA+, the worst numbers amongst Phillies starters, but they’re far and away better than what Vargas has put up this year. The righty is also coming off a much more impressive start than Vargas. Like the veteran southpaw, he too threw a quality start, but he held the MLB leading offense in Boston to a single run in six frames. That’s much more impressive.
Looking of the body of work this season, Pivetta’s pitched better than the ERA suggests. He’s got 153 strikeouts to just 34 walks in 125.2 innings. He’s able to sit people down when needed and doesn’t get himself in a whole lot of trouble. He is plagued a bit by the home run ball, but the numbers aren’t that high compared to Vargas, particularly considering his home ballpark.
Overall, Pivetta has a 3.49 FIP and has been a reliable arm most times to the mound. He’s really changed his approach since his struggles in 2017. The Mets found some success against him last year, they’ll face a different pitcher here in 2018.
Live Betting
Interestingly, the offensive difference between the Mets and Phillies—at least by the numbers—this season is minimal. Philadelphia has scored more runs, but only 30 all year. And while the Phillies’ .709 team OPS is higher than that of the Mets, New York is only 10-points lower at .697.
The Phillies have a bit more power, but the how and when on the runs scoring is the bigger difference.
Philadelphia has pitched better as a whole to help their fewer runs stand up, but the Phillies have also beefed up their offense lately with Wilson Ramos coming off the DL to make his Philadelphia debut with a three extra base hits and Asdrubal Cabrera playing the bulk of the time at shortstop.
Catcher and shortstop have been the biggest Achilles Heels for the Phillies’ offense all year. Meanwhile, they also picked up Justin Bour to add pop off the bench and given the team an alternative to Carlos Santana who hasn’t lived up to the contract.
The Mets have outscored the Phillies in the second half, but these additions seemingly plug up the biggest holes for the Phillies. The Mets’ lineup holes are still glaring.
Jeff McNeil had a nice start to his career at second while Jose Bautista, Austin Jackson and other washed up players have plugged holes.
This team is sending out lineups with Wilmer Flores in the heart of the order and Jose Reyes and his .199 constantly somewhere on the lineup card. Some of that is a Mickey Callaway problem, but some of it is a personnel problem.
Plus, it’s always fun to see a player play against the team that traded him. Look for Asdrubal Cabrera to make a key play in the game.
MLB Pick
One good start against the Orioles of all teams does not inspire enough confidence to expect anything from Vargas in this game.
Look for the Mets’ southpaw to be hit hard like he has in every other game this season. Meanwhile, Pivetta has some stellar peripheral numbers that justify his latest outing when he pitched an excellent game against the Sox.
Look for Pivetta to go six solid and hand the ball over to the bullpen. New York may be able to add a run or two against the pen, but the Phillies should give themselves more than enough of a lead against Vargas and the middle of the Mets’ bullpen that they should still be able to walk away with an easy victory in Williamsport.
The Mets’ best asset is their starting pitching and that goes out the window with Vargas on the mound. Given that, the Phillies are the better team across the board: offensively, defensively and in the pitching department. Anything can happen in baseball, but a Mets’ win would be a rather large upset.
MLB Odds: Phillies 8, Mets 3
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