A David versus Goliath series wraps up on Sunday when the Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees in the final game of an extended four-game series. The Bronx Bombers are the clearly superior team, but in baseball, you never know, particularly in divisional rivalries. The Orioles have played the Yankees tough. We’ll see if that continues as the two teams battle it out in ESPN’s Sunday Night matchup featuring two young, talented—but struggling—starters in Luis Severino and Dylan Bundy.
First pitch of the game between the Yankees at Orioles is scheduled for Sunday, August 26, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Orioles have been terrible this year. They’re near the bottom of baseball in offense, defense and pitching. It’s been an absolute disaster for the Birds and things just continue to get worse. They’ve already lost 90 games and sit over 50 games under-.500.
Against the AL East, the O’s are 2-14 when playing Boston and 1-12 against the Blue Jays, but heading into this series, they’ve played the Yankees, much tougher, winning six of 12. While their head-to-head record brings hope, the 2-11 record in the previous 13 games dashes it.
On the other side of this matchup, the Yankees come into Baltimore having gone 11-5 in their last 16 games after the Red Sox swept them in Fenway Park. Despite the solid play, the Yankees remain nine games back of Boston in the AL East race and seemingly destined for a Wild Card spot.
Injuries have played a part in costing the Yankees a chance at the division. Aaron Judge has been on the shelf for a while though he still leads the team in rWAR. While Giancarlo Stanton still generates a lot of thump, the team misses the other big man in the middle. They also miss Gary Sanchez and now Didi Gregorius. These injuries have bought playing time for Ronald Torrreyes, Austin Romine and Shane Robinson amongst others.
While the lineup isn’t quite as strong with some big bats on the shelf, the lineup still packs a lot of punch. Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar have 20 bombs or more while Gleybar Torres has 18 in just 88 games. This team can still rake even with the injuries.
The Orioles’ lineup, meanwhile, has produced better since Manny Machado was traded to the Dodgers, but it’s generally just a lineup of no-names.
Cedric Mullins was recently called up from Triple-A, proving a bit of a spark in centerfield, moving Adam Jones to right. Those two have been quality bats. Jonathan Villar has added some athleticism to the order while Renato Nunez has held his own, at least offensively, at third. Trey Mancini’s game has improved of late, too, but the lineup cannot even come close to the one the Yankees send out. After all, Chris Davis is still getting starts more often than not despite a .163 average and OPS+ of 50.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup of Luis Severino versus Dylan Bundy would have been a much better one in April when both pitchers were at the top of their game. Of course, Severino is still in the midst of another solid season whereas Bundy is lost.
The Orioles young right-hander was supposed to be part of a duo with Kevin Gausman atop the O’s rotation for years. Gausman has since been traded to the Braves while Bundy has struggled for the last couple months. It’s been really bad of late where he’s allowed seven runs in each of his last three starts as his ERA has ballooned to 5.31 after pitching to a 9.08 ERA over the last two months.
On the year, Bundy is 7-12 with a 5.29 FIP and 1.378 WHIP over 135.2 innings. He’s striking out 9.3 per nine innings and his walk rate isn’t too high. The issue for the right has been the long ball. He’s allowed a league leading 33 home runs which doesn’t bode well against a power hitting team like the Yankees, particularly not in a bandbox of a ballpark like Oriole Park.
The home runs have really been flying lately. He allowed three in his latest loss to the Blue Jays and 13 over his last six games.
Overall, the Orioles are just 8-16 in his 24 starts, but it’s been even worse lately. The Birds are 1-7 in the Bundy’s last eight games as the righty has allowed at least five runs in six of those eight contests. It’s been bad the last two months as his ERA was 3.75 before the most recent issues. He’s broken right now and cannot seem to get back on track.
Severino has been struggling himself. It’s not quite to the level of Bundy, but the Yankees’ young righty is 2-4 with a 7.26 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
The Bronx Bombers are trying to give him some extra rest to help him work through the issues. He’s pitching Sunday on seven days’ rest after he looked a bit better in his last start.
Even after the second half woes, Severino is still 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in his 159.1 innings. He’s made 26 starts.
The 24-year old right-hander is the league leader in wins right now and will try and extend that lead with a win against the O’s. He’s surprisingly yet to face Baltimore this year, but is 4-1 against them in his career with a 3.33 ERA.
Back to his most recent start, Severino went five innings, allowing two runs to get the win. It was the 20th game the Yankees won when Severino was on the bump. He wasn’t great, but good enough, striking out eight.
Live Betting
The Yankees injury issues are impacting more than just the offense as the Bombers have put Aroldis Chapman on the DL.
If anyone can survive the loss of an All-Star closer, it’s the Yankees. Without Chapman, the Yankees still have a couple proven closers in David Robertson and Zach Britton along with a number of other arms that could easily be closers in Chad Green and Dellin Betances. Even Jonathan Holder continues to put up strong innings.
Britton came over to the Yankees from the Orioles prior to the non-waiver trade deadline and he’s struggled since getting to the Big Apple, but should be motivated to pitch well against his former team if called upon.
While the Yankee bullpen is littered with experience and depth, the Orioles’ pen has been a mess. Gone are Britton and Brad Brach, opening meaningful innings for Miguel Castro, Mychal Givens and Mike Wright Jr. None of those have stepped up to make a statement.
Right now, the best arms for the Orioles are Paul Fry and Cody Carroll, one of the pitchers the Orioles got back from the Yankees for Britton. He’s got better numbers since the trade than Britton.
MLB Pick
Bundy struggled against the Yankees when he faced them in July, allowing five runs in four innings and that was with only allowing one home run. Look for the Bronx Bombers to go deep on Bundy a few times, building a sizeable lead for Severino to hold. The Yankee lineup is too strong and Bundy is lost.
The Yankees’ righty is still not back to his old form, but he’s looked much better than Bundy and showed signs of improvement in his last start. That’ll carry over to Sunday, giving him something to build off. Look for Severino to go at least five quality innings, to put himself in position for his 17th win.
The Yankees don’t really need much more from Severino than five frames. Even with some issues by Zach Britton and the injury to Aroldis Chapman, the bullpen is deep enough to easily cover four innings, particularly with a likely sizable cushion.
Meanwhile, look for the Orioles’ bullpen to continue giving up runs after Bundy leaves the game. The pen doesn’t have many viable options anymore.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Orioles 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
