The Chicago Cubs will close out the regular season hosting the St. Louis Cardinals in a best-of-three series with the middle game on Saturday afternoon. Both the Cubs and Cardinals go into this series—and this game—with plenty on the line as the Cubs try to wrap up the NL Central and the Cardinals desperately try to claw their way into the Wild Card. The game also lines up to feature a fun pitching matchup with a former postseason hero, now with the Cubs, in Cole Hamels against a one-time failed prospect in Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals.
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Cubs is scheduled for Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Cardinals own the season series advantage against the Cubs, winning nine of their first 16 matchups. They won two of three in their last head-to-head series, that one in St. Louis, and split a four-game set the last time they were at Wrigley.
Neither team is playing its best brand of baseball right now, both playing just around .500 for the month. The Cubs have some concerns in their bullpen with injuries to Brandon Morrow and Pedro Strop while the Cardinals haven’t gotten the same production in theirs from Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks in September.
Fortunately for the St. Louis, Carlos Martinez has stepped up in the closer role since moving to the pen a month ago. The Cubs, of course, still have a pair of former closers at their disposal in Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson, though Jesse Chavez is now getting looks in the ninth despite not exactly having closer stuff.
In the pen, both teams have had their issues, but the Cubs have had the best bullpen ERA in the NL this season while the Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the league. Most of the Cards’ issues, however, date back to the first half so things should be a bit closer in that capacity now, particularly with Morrow and Strop out.
Probable Pitchers
It could be an interesting starting pitching matchup on Saturday afternoon depending on where both teams are in the standings by then.
The Cardinals have Miles Mikolas lined up to make the start while the Cole Hamels would be in rotation for the Cubs.
Chicago acquired Hamels midseason to help a struggling rotation that wasn’t getting enough from Tyler Chatwood and had Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks struggling. The rotation has since turned around for the Cubs and Hamels has been a big part of that.
The 34-year old southpaw is in the midst of a solid season. He’s 9-11 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in 31 starts and 183.2 innings split between the Rangers and the Cubs. With Chicago, he’s been even better, going 4-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 69.1 innings pitched.
The move to the Cubs has really gotten the best out of him, but he hasn’t been the same in September as he was in August.
In his first month with the Cubs, he went 4-0 and the Cubs were undefeated in six games. In September, the Cubs have one win in five starts and he’s allowed nine runs in his last 12 innings. He had shown better command early with the Cubs, but his walk rate is going back up and he’s allowed six homers over his last four games. He didn’t allow a single home run in his first seven games as a Cub.
On the other side of this matchup, Mikolas has had a great season. Coming over from Japan, he was the other guy alongside Shohei Ohtani. He was a failed pitcher in his first tour in the Majors, but learned how to pitch overseas.
He was an All-Star this year and has continued to pitch well in the second half. The Cardinals are 10-1 in his last 11 starts and he’s been as consistent as they come.
He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start this season which is a large part of the reason St. Louis is 23-8 when he gets the ball. He gives the offense a chance.
Overall, the righty is 17-4 with a 2.94 ERA in 192.2 innings with a 1.090 WHIP. He doesn’t strikeout a ton of batters but keeps the ball on the ground and induces weak contact.
Live Betting
In the bullpen, this game leans towards the Cubs—potentially—even without Morrow and Strop, but Mikolas is pitching better now and is more reliable than Hamels in the rotation. The Cardinals also, perhaps a bit surprisingly, have the better offense.
On the year, the Cardinals have scored 16 more runs that the Cubs though Chicago has the better average and OBP. They’re about even in the slugging percentage.
The Cardinals have quietly passed the Cubs in runs scored this month, scoring 123 in their first 23 games. They outscored Chicago by 36 and out homered by them by 12 dingers.
St. Louis should be able to homer off Hamels whose been a bit homer-happy lately. Matt Carpenter has 36 homers this year. Marcell Ozuna is having a very good month of September with a .310 average seven homers. He’s hit 23 this year.
As for the Cubs, they’re dealing with a slumping Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward and Albert Almora. They also have Addison Russell on administrative leave and Kris Bryant dealing with a wrist issue. This is still a good lineup on paper, but the Cardinals have outperformed them of late.
MLB Pick
Look for Mikolas to have another good game. He will keep the Cardinals in this game as he’s done for St. Louis all year. The Cubs have a good offense and will put up a couple against him but look for Mikolas to leave the game with the lead. From there, the Cardinal pen has been much better in the second half and should be able to close the door.
Mikolas has continued to pitch well and has proven himself to be a reliable arm where Hamels seems to have regressed after his first month in a Cubs uniform.
Hamels had trouble with the long ball as a Ranger and has seen that same issue resurface with Chicago of late. Wrigley is not a bad place to hit. Look for the Cardinals to hit a ball or two out of the yard and grab an early lead. From there, they can add on against a Cubs pen that’s short a couple important arms.
Both the Cardinals and Cubs have something to play for in this game, so it should be a good one with both teams putting their all on the field.
In this one, count on more from Mikolas as he out duels Hamels for the win.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 5, Cubs 4
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